Are we reaching natural peak cases?

[Racoonworld]

The estimates are for up to 100,000 cases a day. This was also the estimate for March too. We have measured in place but schools and universities are open, people mixing, lots ignoring the rules. Yet cases seem to have stalled the last week, with only a small rise. Are we nearing the natural amount of cases?

Viruses do have a certain peak and therefore although that dont necessarily die out, they dont run rampage at the same levels forever either. So many reasons why but even short term immunity or people better genetically bias to resist severe symptoms would eventually slow transmission if we did absolutely nothing.

Even as a biology grad, I wouldnt want to predict this but it will become a background virus eventually. Viruses do their thing regardles. If there is a suitable host and a virus it's like a match and tinder if its infectious enough. It's doing its thing, it's new, we are learning as we go.

@TheCountessofFitzdotterel

But there’s a theory which hasn’t been disproved that the early peak in the spring was caused by people wfh and distancing before they were officially told to by the government. As far as I can see the jury is still out on that.

Sounds like illogical bullshit to me.

How?

Looks like they underestimated the seasonality of the virus and overestimated the degree that we can control it. It is airborne and spreads when people don‘t know they are infected. Short of locking everyone in their houses for months (which would cause so much other untold damage) we can‘t eliminate it so we need to learn to live with it. We need measures that are sustainable long term and support for people having to isolate. If people can‘t afford to feed their families or pay their bills they aren‘t going to stay home when they have symptoms

Hospitalisations peaked on 1 April in England. Average time from infection to hospitalisation is 12 days. So infections must have peaked by 20 March but lockdown wasn't until the 24th.

Same story for deaths. Deaths peaked in England on 8 April, which is much too early. Infections must have been declining before lockdown.

@HalfPastThree

Hospitalisations peaked on 1 April in England. Average time from infection to hospitalisation is 12 days. So infections must have peaked by 20 March but lockdown wasn't until the 24th.

Same story for deaths. Deaths peaked in England on 8 April, which is much too early. Infections must have been declining before lockdown.

We closed schools on the 19th.

I am sure a lot more people have it that are never tested. Remember many people are asymptomatic. I think it will get worse. Predictions are for up to 85,000 deaths this winter. We have got to get until end of April. 6 months do plenty of time for virus to spread. I hope I am wrong.

We closed schools on the 19th.

We know schools are not drivers of the pandemic (universities are). It could have been the pubs, which closed about the same time. Though I seem to remember this was when we were all crowding into shops panic buying

@HalfPastThree

We closed schools on the 19th.

We know schools are not drivers of the pandemic (universities are). It could have been the pubs, which closed about the same time. Though I seem to remember this was when we were all crowding into shops panic buying

No we don't know this at all.

Infections in Scotland have been pretty stable for around 3 weeks now at around 1200 new cases daily. Certainly no sign of exponential growth here. There are restrictions here but not as tight as during lockdown.

@SarahMused

Looks like they underestimated the seasonality of the virus and overestimated the degree that we can control it. It is airborne and spreads when people don‘t know they are infected. Short of locking everyone in their houses for months (which would cause so much other untold damage) we can‘t eliminate it so we need to learn to live with it. We need measures that are sustainable long term and support for people having to isolate. If people can‘t afford to feed their families or pay their bills they aren‘t going to stay home when they have symptoms

Taiwan haven't had a domestic case for 202 days. Singapore, Hong Kong, New Zealand, and Australia are not far off.

Why can't we control the virus? They can.

I highly doubt it. But would be delighted if it were the case.

@Ghislainedefeligonde

Infections in Scotland have been pretty stable for around 3 weeks now at around 1200 new cases daily. Certainly no sign of exponential growth here. There are restrictions here but not as tight as during lockdown.

Yes but the rate is being held down by the restrictions, so nothing natural about it.

Cases would rise fast if everyone started living like we did in 2019.

No we're going to get our arse kicked second wave over winter. But it doesn't have to be as bad as predicted if the majority can think of ways to meet people without risky contact. Through windows, one on one at a distance, online etc.

A lot of people who could started to work from home early March. Our office shut 16th March and we all worked from home from then on. I'm a civil servant. There are thousands of us. I think this is a factor in numbers going down.

I do not think schools are the mass spread that is feared because unlike at university case numbers have not been rampant in schools. I live in a tier 3 area.

I do not think schools are the mass spread that is feared because unlike at university case numbers have not been rampant in schools.

Many of the University cases are from asymptomatic testing which isn't happening in schools.

@Crakeandoryx

A lot of people who could started to work from home early March. Our office shut 16th March and we all worked from home from then on. I'm a civil servant. There are thousands of us. I think this is a factor in numbers going down.

I do not think schools are the mass spread that is feared because unlike at university case numbers have not been rampant in schools. I live in a tier 3 area.

Agree with this. My husband was sent home, along with the whole government building, on 11th March after someone caught coronavirus and was hospitalised. He hasn't been in since and it's a large office. Some did go back fairly recently for specific reasons, but they would only open with 20% capacity at most.