We must stop making policy based on PCR testing

[hamstersarse]

You may have heard discussion from scientists about how the tests we use are not fit for purpose.

This 10 minute video offers a very clear explanation as to why

m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=S_1Z8cSXI-Q

I know it seemed like testing was the answer, but that concept relied on the fact that the test was fit for purpose.

The casedemic we have right now will not go away ever if we continue to rely on this test as the barometer.

@hamstersarse

Fake news?

Ok. Try Dr Michael Yeadon, a former colleague of Vallance, same qualifications

See what he says about PCR testing

lockdownsceptics.org/what-sage-got-wrong/

And if you actually say “I’m not reading it because it’s on Toby Young’s website’ you do not have an enquiring mind (I.e.scientific)

Sorry, but this is also horse manure. To anyone who has read any of my posts, I have a very healthy scepticism about the direction of policy travel and some of the "accepted" science. But anyone who was saying, on 16th October, that: "The more likely situation is that the susceptible population is now sufficiently depleted (now

No I want the link to the data which you must have as you know the admissions are slightly under this year.

If hospital admissions are down, I want to know how much of this reduction in admission is down to cancelled elective surgery. 2 hospitals here have cancelled all elective surgeries, so that will bring the admission numbers down hugely. That's why I asked for the link?

@hamstersarse

Hospital admissions always increase at this time of year.

Add to this the spurious results from the PCR test and its unclear as to whether there is anything unusual at all

And there we have it - there is nothing unusual at all Really???? This is truther nonsense. Anyone who thinks that thousands of viral infections a day is made up, bad science or nothing unusual is insane.

‘Predicable’ that I won’t read anything by eugenicist, Brexit supporting, extreme right winger Toby Young?

As for Twitter, it really depends on the author. Respected scientist quoting vigorously conducted research? Yes, I’ll probably take a look. Random with no followers spouting absolute bollocks/Trump, probably not.

Mumsnet should probably have a policy about spreading of covid misinformation. They should remove this thread.

@Moondust001

• The more likely situation is that the susceptible population is now sufficiently depleted (now

They should keep it. These anti-scientific views are now very much in the mainstream and it’s quite disturbing.

@Moondust001

And there we have it - there is nothing unusual at all Really???? This is truther nonsense. Anyone who thinks that thousands of viral infections a day is made up, bad science or nothing unusual is insane.

You have said there are thousands of ‘infections’ but not hospital admissions

There are thousands of ‘infections’ but not unusual hospital admissions

Which is why the test Is important...and the point of thread

Where's the link for hospital admissions? How do you know they're down? Why are you ignoring me?

As for immune population, bollocks. We haven't acquired immunity without a vaccine for a single disease. And, it seems we won't with this either: news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-herd-immunity-hopes-dashed-as-study-shows-covid-19-antibodies-fall-rapidly-after-recovery-12115510?utm_source=upday&utm_medium=referral

And here's the link to the actual study. Published, but new so not yet reviewed: www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.12.20173690v2

@FlyingFlamingo

‘Predicable’ that I won’t read anything by eugenicist, Brexit supporting, extreme right winger Toby Young?

As for Twitter, it really depends on the author. Respected scientist quoting vigorously conducted research? Yes, I’ll probably take a look. Random with no followers spouting absolute bollocks/Trump, probably not.

Ok, got you on your consumption of information

So what’s your view on the reliability and suitability of the PCR test?

[quote housemdwaswrong]Where's the link for hospital admissions? How do you know they're down? Why are you ignoring me?

As for immune population, bollocks. We haven't acquired immunity without a vaccine for a single disease. And, it seems we won't with this either: news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-herd-immunity-hopes-dashed-as-study-shows-covid-19-antibodies-fall-rapidly-after-recovery-12115510?utm_source=upday&utm_medium=referral

And here's the link to the actual study. Published, but new so not yet reviewed: www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.12.20173690v2[/quote]
Antibodies are the final frontier in our immune system. A wholly unreliable measure of how much community immunity we have.
If you listen to the podcast I posted it explains this in some detail

You haven't read the paper then? Not enquiring of you is it?

Where's the link for the hospital admissions? I'm beginning to think you don't know and are just repeating things you've heard with no substantiation...

I don’t understand how with thousands of people being admitted with Covid that admissions can be down?

Well as you have yet to share a link to a peer reviewed article my current opinion still stands - it is the most reliable measure that is widely available to indicate if a person has a current infection. As a population measure it may be less reliable due to untrained people sometimes being the ones to administer the test (more likely to lead to false negatives than positives which isn’t what you are arguing anyway) and not everyone with symptoms/all asymptomatic people being tested. Again though, this would lead to under not over reporting.

@madameblobby I suspect overall admissions are down because so much elective surgery has been put on hold. Of course, OP doesn't actually have the figures for this it seems, and I can't find any, so it could just be bollocks. If it is true, then its down to the restrictions in the NHS.

This is like trying to engage with an anti vaxxer - links to randomers on YouTube, when provided with actual scientific evidence more links to more random videos whilst completely dodging the evidence placed in front of them

Op maymbe they are basing policy on excess deaths and I thought worst period for hospitals was later like flu season in December.

What might help people who believe there is no problem is if the NHS has clear easy to read weekly data showing each trust/area of hospital admissions covid/non covid, beds available covid/non covid, ICU occupied beds and available beds.

The government briefings show some of this info but it may be better to break it down even more.
This could give an indication of the correlation between high infection cases and hospital capacity. The information is there but perhaps it needs to be presented in an easy to read format for those that don't see any problem?

@Redolent

They should keep it. These anti-scientific views are now very much in the mainstream and it’s quite disturbing.

Dr Yeadon is a scientist and specialist in respiratory disease research.

Agree, OP, the PCR test is dubious. My own GP is concerned about the false positives. She was the one who flagged up Covid to me in early Jan - though we didn’t know what it was then. She was concerned about me due to asthma and other underlying illnesses.

It seems a terrible shame to politicise science and medicine. We can’t control what others do, but surely we can talk on MN without saying “this can’t be worthy of thought because I don’t like the platform”?

I think the BMJ are still having their covid articles as free to read.

I also refer to this, but I’m concerned about the “positive test” as the person might have had, for example, heart failure.

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Yeadon who spreads lies and misinformation and then refuses to delete or correct the tweet when it is pointed out to him that the information is false.
mobile.twitter.com/ArgusICraig/status/1318534847007232000

Who thinks "the pandemic is over" and is such a narcissist that he claims to have studied the pandemic and have more knowledge than anybody else in the UK:
mobile.twitter.com/whippletom/status/1320098188204888065

Toby Young, who used to spend his time on twitter commenting on the size of woman's breasts (and in one case a 15 year old girl). And now fancies himself as some sort of epidemiology expert... err, no thanks.
amp.theguardian.com/media/2018/jan/03/toby-young-quotes-on-breasts-eugenics-and-working-class-people?

@notevenat20

Mumsnet should probably have a policy about spreading of covid misinformation. They should remove this thread.

To be fair most threads on here would get removed if that became a policy.

Don’t forget misinformation can come from pro Covid people as well.

WTF are pro covid people?

I think the platform is everything. Yeadon lied about the beds in Neville Hall. Dress it up how you wish, but that was an outright lie. That's dangerous at this time, and discredits him hugely. He claims to be all about the science, then literally makes stuff up. It goes on to beg the question that if his argument and science interpretation is so strong, why does he need to lie? Platforms are everything when literally anyone can post anything.

Which platforms are considered trustworthy please?

All this aside, even if it was true (which thr vast majority of scientists say it is not), looking at the positivity rate would still give an accurate view of whether infection rates are increasing.

And they are.

If positivity rates are increasing using the same type of test... it doesn’t matter how many false positives there are, it still shows infections rising.

Attached are the latest positivity rates.