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Original poster

To think we are all going to Get COVID-19 it’s just a matter of time

48 replies

MariahLynn · 26/10/2020 14:37

Assuming you aren’t living like a hermit.

The UK is averaging 22,000 infections assuming this stays the same. There is 67 days until end of year. This is 1.4million infections.

Given that it is likely cases will grow. It is likely many millions will be infected.

Say infections stay the same and a vaccine isn’t available until 1st of March. This is 3 million.

This is all assuming cases don’t rise. Which they will and is not taking account of asymptomatic infection.

We might as well except the inevitable that we will likely contract covid and get on with our lives.

OP posts:
HairyToity · 26/10/2020 14:41

DH and I are both mostly working from home. Also we are sticking to just outdoor activities. However we do accept that unless we home school we may well get it. Happy to take this chance to keep ourselves sane and for the children to get an education.

Mindymomo · 26/10/2020 14:41

Don’t we have over 65 million in Great Britain.

Lumene · 26/10/2020 14:43

Population of UK is over 66 million so 3 million would be a fair few, but still far from everyone.

Redolent · 26/10/2020 14:43

So by your calculation, at current rates, 4.5% of the UK population will have had covid by March. Double that rate of infection and it’s still not even 10%. How does that equate to ‘everyone‘?

yeOldeTrout · 26/10/2020 14:46

Noooo... OP you don't understand. An amazing vaccine will be found that stops anyone getting it or at least they won't get very sick. Everyone will get the vaccine very quickly. This will happen for sure by March & maybe by January. I know coz Johnson/Trump/everyone told me so.

starfro · 26/10/2020 14:48

Most will get it at some point in the next few years. At the very least 10 million have had it so far in the UK, and it's probably nearer to 20 million.

Even with a vaccine a high proportion will contract it, just having slightly milder symptoms. It will be endemic.

username49583 · 26/10/2020 14:50

I also actually wonder if we are massively under estimating how many people have had it. My sister for instance was in contact with a person from her work who tested positive so she isolated. A few days later she lost her sense of smell and so tested and got a positive test. Both my parents and brother live with her. They all lost their sense of smell/taste so they isolated however did not bother to test as didn't seem any point. Her work colleague said her family were the same had symptoms but didn't bother to test as were isolating anyway. So in that example only two of eight people who more than likely had it would be in the figures.

Badbadbunny · 26/10/2020 14:50

The people catching covid are generally the ones ignoring the guidance. Most people are taking precautions, so far lower risk of catching it.

At my son's Uni, they're back down to just 1 or 2 new cases per day. That's because the Uni have finally started enforcing the rules and the idiotic minority of students are being stopped from partying.

The 22k daily infections will quickly start to come down again once the latest restrictions come into force.

Redolent · 26/10/2020 14:52

@starfro

Most will get it at some point in the next few years. At the very least 10 million have had it so far in the UK, and it's probably nearer to 20 million.

Even with a vaccine a high proportion will contract it, just having slightly milder symptoms. It will be endemic.

Where are you getting your figure of 15 million total UK infections so far?
Devilesko · 26/10/2020 14:55

I agree, and also think we'll end up with the survival of the fittest.
We can't shield everyone who requires it, and some people are working even though vulnerable and in high risk group.
I suppose if you are happy to be poor and give up work, or rich and not have to work you can become a hermit and avoid it, but not sure any other groups have much choice.
Even the elderly catch it in hospital and are sent back to care homes to infect the other residents. We aren't shielding this group at all.

Chaosalwaysreigns · 26/10/2020 14:56

The people catching covid are generally the ones ignoring the guidance. Most people are taking precautions, so far lower risk of catching it.

What a crock of shit.

How have you worked that one out?

So you're now blaming people for getting sick? Is this the world we are in now Angry

I know someone who caught Covid in hi had been extremely careful.

Chosennone · 26/10/2020 14:56

The thing is we all need to get it in a slow orderly fashion so that the fabric if society doesn't fall apart and the NHS get overwhelmed. The virus needs to work it's way through society but in a way we can 'control'. I also agree with PP that we have underestimated how many people have already had it. It was endemic and March and loads of people didn't get tested!

starfro · 26/10/2020 15:00

15million x 0.3% = 40,000 deaths. 0.3% is the latest IFR, but it has been steadily dropping as more data becomes available. IFR is always over-estimated during pandemics. Some places like Iceland with comprehensive testing are showing lower values.

IFR will come out somewhere between 0.1 and 0.3%, so it actually could be more that have been previously infected.

Redolent · 26/10/2020 15:01

Imperial College’s home testing programme suggests that about 6% of England’s population have had covid (this was in August). Up to 13% in London and lower elsewhere.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/13/up-to-6-of-englands-population-may-have-had-covid-study-suggests

AllForYOuu · 26/10/2020 15:05

@Badbadbunny
"The people catching covid are generally the ones ignoring the guidance. Most people are taking precautions, so far lower risk of catching it."

Don't talk shit. The only place I go is work, I work in the hospital so unfortunately unable to social distance, and food shopping and I currently have Covid, I certainly don't "ignore the guidance"

OliveTree75 · 26/10/2020 15:07

The people catching covid are generally the ones ignoring the guidance. Most people are taking precautions, so far lower risk of catching it.

What a stupid comment. Most people are catching it at work, in school, in hospital, in care homes etc

Trevortrilby · 26/10/2020 15:08

@Badbadbunny that is completely and utterly untrue. If you have children at school, you work as a teacher or in any public-facing role you have a good chance of catching Covid despite taking what precautions you can.

SpookyNoise · 26/10/2020 15:09

My son has it. We have been incredibly careful, but he got it from school. It’s very frustrating.

U8myufo · 26/10/2020 15:11

@Badbadbunny

The people catching covid are generally the ones ignoring the guidance. Most people are taking precautions, so far lower risk of catching it.

At my son's Uni, they're back down to just 1 or 2 new cases per day. That's because the Uni have finally started enforcing the rules and the idiotic minority of students are being stopped from partying.

The 22k daily infections will quickly start to come down again once the latest restrictions come into force.

I haven't ignored the guidance I caught it very early in the year through my job working at a kennels (and therefore encountering people back from holiday) it is wrong to assume that those catching it are somehow behaving recklessly. It may be the case in some instances but certainly not all!
PaddyF0dder · 26/10/2020 15:12

Jesus what a brain fart.

starfro · 26/10/2020 15:14

[quote Redolent]Imperial College’s home testing programme suggests that about 6% of England’s population have had covid (this was in August). Up to 13% in London and lower elsewhere.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/13/up-to-6-of-englands-population-may-have-had-covid-study-suggests[/quote]
That study only tracks antibodies, and we know for a fact not everyone that gets infected produces antibodies as a result of a Covid infection.

When you compare R between London and the North-West, amazingly you get closer to the 20-30% figures. There is no way R would be that different if the Imperial figures were correct.

lockeddownandcrazy · 26/10/2020 15:20

The people who arent social distancing - are passing it on happily as they probably have no symptoms or minor ones and really dont care. A lot of people have had it without knowing I think - before it was known about or since then. We will all get it, its just a case of when and how badly.

LearnedResponse · 26/10/2020 15:25

Sooner or later possibly, but that doesn’t mean that you may as well get it sooner.

A) because if everyone got it at once in an uncontrolled way the NHS would collapse completely - the consequences would be unthinkable.
B) because even in the absence of a decent vaccine treatment is improving all the time. Ask any intensive care staff whether they’d rather catch it now or back in April. And in another six months treatment will have improved again - there’s a bunch of interesting treatments in the pipeline (as per Professor Jeremy Farrar, the head of the Wellcome Trust, not Donald Trump).

picklemewalnuts · 26/10/2020 15:52

I hope not. The current statistics suggest I'm likely to get long tail COVID. I really don't want that!

We need to keep the spread as slow as we can for as long as we can, in the hope treatments and vaccinations improve.

Our economy will have to take a rejig. We'll lose jobs in some areas- hospitality, entertainment- and gain them in others, like delivery drivers and sanitiser gel manufacturing.

IrmaFayLear · 26/10/2020 16:29

Great. No theatre, cinema, eating out... but hey, we’ve got lots of hand sanitiser! What a crap world to live in.

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