Czech Republic - this is what happens when Covid isn't taken seriously

[CrunchyCarrot]

Just watched this video made by Dr John Campbell yesterday. He had a Czech guest speaker who gave a presentation of the events that have happened in the Czech republic since February. It really is pretty shocking and shows what can happen when people, so-called 'experts' and governments don't take the virus and getting it under control seriously.

Do watch it if you can, especially if you think the virus is a hoax or that we don't need to bother wearing masks or locking down. The Czechs now face a potential overwhelming of their hospital bed capacity within a few weeks as their cases are exponentially rising. Many of their medical staff are now off due to illness, which means they're going to have to rely on doctors coming in from other countries such as Germany to help out, thereby putting more pressure on health care systems in those countries.

If you want to listen to the preamble to the presentation, it's here:

OP I think your post is illustrating the opposite argument to that you intended, and makes Czech comparable with Spain. Eg ultra hard lockdowns are not sustainable and simply lead to a massive spike when things open back up as, among other things, absolutely nobody has immunity.

Yes, that's how I see it too.

And I think that this shows us that the virus can't be controlled. Lockdowns work at pausing the virus and once life resumes it will hit. Unless we lock down permanently I don't see how this situation could be avoided...and that simply isn't an option

Agreed.

I'm not sure how useful it is to compare a country that has so many borders and one that is an island.

Having land borders is neither here nor there in itself. The issue is how many people are entering and leaving the country. Britain may be an island but it is also a major international travel hub and home to one of the world's busiest interntional airports. Haven't Czech borders been closed for much of the past 7 months?

Since immunity is only thought to last 6mths

Really?

@sashagabadon, I agree with you, except on the UK's failure to research the connection with Vitamin D until now. Far too late. There was clearly a connection to vitamin D in April. I'm not a scientist or in medicine, but I could see it. There was also a more tentative link to testosterone and that was researched early in Germany. Both are hormones (vitamin D isn't a vitamin in the standard sense).
If it turns out that testing for vitamin D levels and prescribing loading doses to the deficient and telling everyone else to get out in sunshine, or pay for their own supplements, could have prevented the severity of cases, it really will be an unforgivable oversight. (Plus I'm aware of that high levels of insulin block vitamin D absorption, so that would need to be part of the research.)
The UK has a miserable record in investigating this.

Vallance back in March, he talks about the dangers of suppressing the first wave at 3:54:

In that video he's predicted perfectly what has happened in the Czech Republic, using as he says "all the previous academic evidence from previous epidemics".

Just watched the valance video. He really knew what he was talking about imo but politically it was impossible situation for him to explain the science without sounding harsh.
I remember reading it was Cummings that was actually pushing for an earlier lockdown (despite common misconception) and the scientists wanted to delay a bit precisely because they knew it was unsustainable and they wanted to avoid a bigger second wave in the winter.

I have a high up source (on the science side) and was told it was Cummings that wanted the lockdown based on his assessment of public opinion. Lockdown was hugely popular at the start.

I've also read that about Cummins on the political pages of The Times. It was a panicky time back in March, I really hope the next weeks and months aren't a re-run and we can weather it.

Lockdown was hugely popular back in March (despite what Andy Burnham now says). The Left wing media were spinning the line that it was Cummings pushing for herD immunity as he was evil but actually it was the scientists trying to delay because they knew it would make a winter second wave harder but politically that is a tough sell to a frightened public

Pretty sure no one in the Czech Republic thought it was a hoax. They had incredibly strict measures early on, and there was widespread congratulation that they had done it properly.

Looks like the virus will burn through a population, whatever measures are taken. You could say they left themselves vulnerable to a first wave of infection at the worst possible time of year.

This is why you can't possibly have International Covid Charts until at least 12 months have gone by.

[quote DianaT1969]@sashagabadon, I agree with you, except on the UK's failure to research the connection with Vitamin D until now. Far too late. There was clearly a connection to vitamin D in April. I'm not a scientist or in medicine, but I could see it. There was also a more tentative link to testosterone and that was researched early in Germany. Both are hormones (vitamin D isn't a vitamin in the standard sense).
If it turns out that testing for vitamin D levels and prescribing loading doses to the deficient and telling everyone else to get out in sunshine, or pay for their own supplements, could have prevented the severity of cases, it really will be an unforgivable oversight. (Plus I'm aware of that high levels of insulin block vitamin D absorption, so that would need to be part of the research.)
The UK has a miserable record in investigating this.[/quote]
Why was this not properly investigated? Why were the benefits of Vitamin D not pushed more widely?

It's unbelievable.

Not only was the vitamin D factor not investigated, I took a screenshot of a tweet from the office NHS Twitter account, saying that taking vitamin D supplements is not helpful in combating Covid.
That was after several countries, including Ireland and India had published research (not peer reviewed) suggesting it was a factor in outcome.

NiCE evidence review on vitamin D therapy for covid.
BMJ summary.
There are a few RCTs going on. The Twitterati keep picking apart the few preliminary trial results & find them uncompelling. Like this study is hugely underpowered. I thought that was the one that didn't have proper randomisation, but maybe was a different Vit-D experiment.

Lancet editorial promoting vitamin D supplements for reducing covid severity.

I think the idea is taken seriously, but there are so many things to try, and several things that are clearly effective when vitamin D isn't clearly relevant.

The UK reviews linked to by the previous poster say 'there is no evidence' and 'there is insufficient evidence' that vitamin D...
Saying there is no evidence isn't the same as saying that it doesn't work.

The NHS has recommended Vit D supplements in winter months for a long time, pre covid.

@CulturallyAppropriatedName

I have always puzzled over this: to me, once the genie is out of the bottle, you can't stuff it back in. I have never fully understood the NZ approach as inevitably the virus will come unless their borders are kept closed indefinitely. I sort of assumed they are holding it back until a vaccine is available - but whether that will be 100 percent effective we will have to see.

NZ have taken a gamble that they can hold out until a vaccine arrives. They might be right, but a lot depends on how long that is. The other issue for them is that, while the rest of the world will probably accept a vaccine with, say, 50 to 60% effectiveness and then get on with life, in NZ that may not be acceptable, at least not to some of the population.

@CathyandClare - agreed that the NHS website has recommended Vitamin D supplements in winter.
However, we're going into winter now and people who are deficient don't know they are. People who are low don't know they are. People who got plenty of sunshine this summer aren't clear on how much to take to maintain their levels over winter. Nor have they been told how much to K2 to take with it (and that they should take it with fat for optimal absorption). People who struggle to push their level up, even with supplements, aren't aware that insulin resistance is the most likely thing blocking absorption.
If it transpires that optimum levels of vitamin D help guard against catching Covid in the first place, or against Covid becoming severe, then the UK has wasted an incredible opportunity to get through this pandemic for around 2p per day - which most individuals can afford. Very little state aid and intervention required.
Instead, Matt Hancock publicly dismissed vitamin D, and the NHS official Twitter site told people not to bother with Vitamin D this summer.

Instead, Matt Hancock publicly dismissed vitamin D, and the NHS official Twitter site told people not to bother with Vitamin D this summer.

You know initially I had some sympathy for Matt Hancock. But the more time that goes on, and the more than comes out of the woodwork, the more I think he should actually be tried in court.

Silly question - might they have been worried about vit D supplies? Not that that would justify not putting the information out there, but it would explain why they might not.

I'm banging on about Vitamin D because so many studies around the world, and now UK doctors and scientists are being ignored.
www.nutraingredients.com/Article/2020/10/02/COVID-19-Scientists-raise-the-vitamin-D-alarm
www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-vitamin-d-reduces-infection-and-impact-of-covid-19-studies-find-12081132
www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3872/rr-5

@HesterShaw1 - I feel the same about Matt Hancock. Initially I defended on MN a lot. He was uncharted waters. Struggling with a pandemic and a country which had limited lab testing an no PPE stock. I felt there's only so much responsibility a person can take.
With vitamin D, I feel he (and others at Public Health England) should be tried in court for gross negligence. I see the French Health Minister may be facing charges for mismanagement, so it isn't unprecedented.

This is the link that sums it up.
www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3872/rr-5
Vitamin D can't be patented. It can't earn anyone huge amounts of money, or be responsible for lucrative research grants. A US scientist writing to the BMJ, citing 40+ research papers on its efficiency as a preventative treatment for Covid.

Vitamin D sales and tests is a very lucrative industry.

Yeoldetrout - interesting! I wonder if it was that lucrative before Covid.
At least it already exists, is relatively inexpensive and no single company has a monopoly on it. If even 50% of the population have a better outcome on Covid, due to getting enough sunshine and/or supplements in winter, then this virus has less chance of overwhelming our hospital wards.