Czech Republic - this is what happens when Covid isn't taken seriously

[CrunchyCarrot]

Just watched this video made by Dr John Campbell yesterday. He had a Czech guest speaker who gave a presentation of the events that have happened in the Czech republic since February. It really is pretty shocking and shows what can happen when people, so-called 'experts' and governments don't take the virus and getting it under control seriously.

Do watch it if you can, especially if you think the virus is a hoax or that we don't need to bother wearing masks or locking down. The Czechs now face a potential overwhelming of their hospital bed capacity within a few weeks as their cases are exponentially rising. Many of their medical staff are now off due to illness, which means they're going to have to rely on doctors coming in from other countries such as Germany to help out, thereby putting more pressure on health care systems in those countries.

If you want to listen to the preamble to the presentation, it's here:

@ihatedolphins

I live in the Czech Republic (please don't call it Czechia,no one here wants that). Those who are referring to it as a tinderbox are absolutely right. We had little to no cases at the beginning as we locked down hard (super super strict), straightaway. Then things opened up again in the summer, people travelled all over, and once the schools started again in Sept, BOOM...our numbers have been rising like crazy!!

Interestingly, if you look at the figures carefully, Prague only accounts for maybe 10% of the cases in the whole country. Very unusual as it is by far the most heavily and densely populated part of the country. Prague was the area that had the most cases back in Spring. So perhaps Prague has some tentative version of 'herd immunity' from initial exposure?

And I think that this shows us that the virus can't be controlled. Lockdowns work at pausing the virus and once life resumes it will hit.

We are having our first wave now as a result of this.

Unless we lock down permanently I don't see how this situation could be avoided...and that simply isn't an option.

Tourism is a huge huge industry here, businesses, restaurants, bars etc etc are not going to recover now. And it isn't because workers are getting sick, because on the whole Prague isn't getting crazy numbers of cases. The government are chumps and furlough schemes aren't happening like they are in the UK.

So really I think we need to just carry on as best as we can. Accept that this is our 'big' first wave, take the hit and then numbers should decline again.

Time will tell I guess...

Interesting post and very difficult. It does seem if you lockdown earlier and strictly it’s ok if you manage to do a NZ and keep it out. Otherwise it’s a later first wave.

@Unsure33

I think they did take it seriously actually and then perhaps got complacent . Its a very difficult situation for them there at the moment . ):

I don't think that people got complacent here? I think they took things very seriously when the government asked and continue to do so.

But the general atmosphere isn't one of fear either. I feel that people here just want to get on with life and what happens happens. I wouldn't say that the people here are feeling the effects day to day any harder than the UK?

@KenDodd

please don't call it Czechia, no one here wants that

Can you explain more about that? I also thought that's what it's called now, that's how I've seen it officially called now.

The government passed that the name should be changed but no one I know here felt that was necessary. The government on the whole are not supported by Prague (which is the only heavily populated city in CZ). It is the more insular and uneducated people from the many surrounding villages that kept the current government in power. They are a complete joke, out for themselves, profiting off the current crisis and they still got voted back in after the election 2 weeks ago. People here don't like change so stick with what they know rather than try something new...even when the people in charge are corrupt Trump idolisers...

Thanks @ihatedolphins a good perspective on what's happening

OP I think your post is illustrating the opposite argument to that you intended, and makes Czech comparable with Spain. Eg ultra hard lockdowns are not sustainable and simply lead to a massive spike when things open back up as, among other things, absolutely nobody has immunity. I find it astonishing that the likes of Sturgeon are too pig-headed to learn from this. It's all about politics with her now, not lives.

A later first wave is better than an earlier one in general-we have learned so much in the last 6 months about how it spreads and how to treat it.
However I do wonder if having your first wave at the beginning of winter rather than spring as we did will make it harder to get on top of. I hope it is not the case.

I'm not sure how useful it is to compare a country that has so many borders and one that is an island.
Nor to compare one where the population is generally compliant, despite serious issues with their leader(s), with one where those in power pretended they were driving to beauty spots to check their eyesight and lost a lot of respect from those who were .

Slovakia (which has a new PM and President) had a hard lockdown and cases have been rising there. Some were linked to miners who were working in Silesia, IIRC, rather than in SK itself, and weddings and other family gatherings have been hotspots, too. But the rise has been slower than in CZ. The Slovaks are about to carry out nationwide antibody tests to try and get the virus under control.

Since immunity is only thought to last 6mths, the issue of whether lockdowns in March-May are to blame for rises in cases is perhaps not as simple as all that.

Sorry, the end of a sentences went AWOL: "those who were following the rules."

Since immunity is only thought to last 6mths

There’s no consensus on that at all, how could there be?

And I think that this shows us that the virus can't be controlled. Lockdowns work at pausing the virus and once life resumes it will hit. Unless we lock down permanently I don't see how this situation could be avoided...and that simply isn't an option.*
Agreed.

I am sure this is why Covid is now surging in the north of England and parts of Scotland. We locked down about the right time in London and the South East. We should have staggered lockdown for other areas.

I agree with hindsight we should have had staggered lockdown (or local lockdowns as we understand them now) so London was about right but it was arguably too early for rest of U.K. But it is easy to think that now, knowing what we all now know, politically it would have been a non starter to only lockdown London. Everyone was screaming for it at the time, social media were losing their minds, here on MN every other post was demanding a lockdown.
No politician could have held the position of a London lockdown only. There were already cries of herd immunity= eugenics. The rest of the U.K. would be accusing Boris of all sorts!
Labour was also calling for a lockdown, there were almost no voices saying hold on, wait a minute.

@AuldAlliance

I'm not sure how useful it is to compare a country that has so many borders and one that is an island. Nor to compare one where the population is generally compliant, despite serious issues with their leader(s), with one where those in power pretended they were driving to beauty spots to check their eyesight and lost a lot of respect from those who were .

Slovakia (which has a new PM and President) had a hard lockdown and cases have been rising there. Some were linked to miners who were working in Silesia, IIRC, rather than in SK itself, and weddings and other family gatherings have been hotspots, too. But the rise has been slower than in CZ. The Slovaks are about to carry out nationwide antibody tests to try and get the virus under control.

Since immunity is only thought to last 6mths, the issue of whether lockdowns in March-May are to blame for rises in cases is perhaps not as simple as all that.

According to many on here we shouldn’t compare the U.K. to Sweden either ...because reasons...

Is there an ‘approved’ list somewhere?

In the early days of the pandemic in the UK, Patrick Vallance said:

“If you suppress something very, very hard, when you release those measures it bounces back and it bounces back at the wrong time,”

Obviously, he subsequently changed his stance- but he may well have been right.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/coronavirus-science-chief-defends-uk-measures-criticism-herd-immunity

AlecTrevelyan006
Is there an ‘approved’ list somewhere?

No.
There are reasons, but apparently they're a bad thing.

I have always puzzled over this: to me, once the genie is out of the bottle, you can't stuff it back in. I have never fully understood the NZ approach as inevitably the virus will come unless their borders are kept closed indefinitely. I sort of assumed they are holding it back until a vaccine is available - but whether that will be 100 percent effective we will have to see.

The NZ approach is perfect for them. They have done the right thing for a country with their geography and position in the world.
They now have to wait for the US, UK, China etc to rescue them with treatments , a vaccine etc but that is maybe a small price to pay. The gamble for them is hoping other countries do rescue them and how long it takes.
I get the praise for NZ and I am pleased for them but I do think they have not really contributed to the global effort, more shut their door and gone into hiding!
The U.K. can be criticised for many things but we have really stepped up to solve the problem coming p with treatments in huge NHS trials and working on 2 vaccines with large number of Brit volunteers. We haven’t just hidden away and for that we should be proud!

I think New Zealand works incredibly well for New Zealand because of its unique geographical/social/political/economic make up that it has.

Europe/US etc - due to their geographical etc factors could never have done what NZ did and I imagine given the way air traffic works would have been too late anyway

@AlecTrevelyan006 realistically I think the comparisons should be made with Europe and perhaps US states. The Nordic countries again have unique cultural and geographical factors which make comparisons valid between them but no one else.

But yes I think there is a limit - China seems to do it with mass (2 million I think were done in Xinijang and they do routine screening. They have fantastic track and trace (and the number of asymptomatic cases is high) that is what we need

@sashagabadon great points. What I do think makes the New Zealand approach perfect for them is that from. What I can see, population seems very happy with it and the sacrifices they've made (I do worry about their ex pat community though) . I wouldn't want it here and can't imagine most European residents would be happy with it but glad that they are finding a way through this for now.

[quote cathyandclare]In the early days of the pandemic in the UK, Patrick Vallance said:

“If you suppress something very, very hard, when you release those measures it bounces back and it bounces back at the wrong time,”

Obviously, he subsequently changed his stance- but he may well have been right.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/coronavirus-science-chief-defends-uk-measures-criticism-herd-immunity[/quote]
He was right and only going along with decades of epidemiological knowledge. Many countries in Europe who were celebrating victories in the summer should have followed the established science.

The crazy idea to "eliminate" the virus came later, and was actually only done because of public opinion demanding a lockdown.

Valance was right but labour and the media jumped on him as herd immunity became to = eugenics.
It was impossible for him to then explain his position in a calm and rational way as he was being called a murderer!

@toxtethOgradyUSA

OP I think your post is illustrating the opposite argument to that you intended, and makes Czech comparable with Spain. Eg ultra hard lockdowns are not sustainable and simply lead to a massive spike when things open back up as, among other things, absolutely nobody has immunity. I find it astonishing that the likes of Sturgeon are too pig-headed to learn from this. It's all about politics with her now, not lives.

Yes, you're right @toxtethOgradyUSA, and I have to say a big thank you to @ihatedolphins for providing an alternative perspective, it's always good to get other information, as the John Campbell video did make it seem like the Czech Rep has handled things wrongly.

Even if the initial infection wave doesn't achieve the herd immunity threshold, what it does do is spread out any 2nd wave so that the peak is lower and healthcare services don't get overwhelmed.

It was all about "squashing the sombrero" back in March. As they said, this doesn't reduce the number of infections in total, but does spread them out over a much longer timeframe to protect the NHS.

Very interesting thread OP

So there does seem be evidence if some herd immunity. By being too strict with lockdown, you're just pushing the problem into the future.