Now we know why the govt were suppressing the schools infection data

[noblegiraffe]

...because for secondary it’s very worrying.

They choose to release it the day before we break up for half term, too late for any circuit breaker like the other U.K. countries.

They’ve quietly removed the assertion that schools aren’t high risk settings from the guidance. At what point are they going to start to be honest about the risks, particularly in sixth forms and colleges?

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/928749/Weekly_COVID-19_and_Influenza_Surveillance_Graphs_W43_FINAL.pdf

I do have a question though - if we think most or a lot of kids have it without symptoms why are they not giving it to their parents? My son is out and about at 6th form college, being fairly sensible but I don't pretend he's perfect. He could easily give it to me or DH. So either it's not as infectious as being claimed, or not having symptoms means you don't pass it on as easily (makes sense to me if you're not coughing everywhere) or, possibly, we have already had it.

@notevenat20

Does anyone have figures for the proportion of cases in primary schools that are actually the teacher? In DCs school it has been the teacher every time with no positive cases in children that I know of.

In the 10 schools in my area (2 secondary and 8 primaries), there have been 15 year groups sent home. Only 2 cases have been adults - a head teacher and a caretaker.

My teacher friend (different school) was sent home when there was a case in her year group. She then caught it and has been unwell. She may have picked it up elsewhere but the timing suggests she got it from school.

Does anyone have figures for the proportion of cases in primary schools that are actually the teacher?

I think the issue is that it is the teacher who shows the 'classic 3' adult covid symptoms, and so gets tested. Children's symptoms tend to be different, and so they won't get tested - add that to the up to 90% who will be infected but asymptomatic, and you can see that 1 teacher being infected could in fact reflect a significant but invisible infection rate amongst children.

Whole cohort testing would be interesting ... but probably quite frightening!

God, can you imagine? Live-streaming lessons and being judged by every Tom, Dick or Harry listening in!! It would be like Ofsted every day of the week

I work in a private school so did lessons all through lockdown. At a recent parent’s evening, one mother said she had listened in to all my lessons so she too could learn (MFL)! She was very positive - told me she thought my ‘way’ with the children was great - and was less than positive about another colleague (although sensible enough not to give a name). I had a few days off with symptoms early this half term and our system is set up so we can literally do our lessons from home if we are well via Teams into the classroom. However, a teacher needed to be in the room and I had my HOD in for 3 lessons! It was like lesson observation every day. Thankfully, he was nothing other than positive, but goodness me, you really do need to keep on your toes!

Just to reassure teachers re live streaming etc, when my Yr 7 was isolating last week I didn’t listen in to the lessons even though he was in the kitchen. I was doing my own work with head phones on (and wrangling his siblings, one of whom was poorly). The odd time I caught the odd minute of his lessons as I made yet more snacks/lemsips etc I could tell some of the kids were playing up a bit of the time but my reaction - nothing but awe & respect for the teachers. And honestly just thankful that they were providing this service & my son really enjoyed the experience.
Thank you to all teachers - hope you all enjoy half term

@notevenat20

Personally, I rather like it when they stick to the boring old science and try to isolate contacts effectively. That is the point of the exercise.

There is no reason to believe that the French understand science differently to us. The problem is that there is no crystal clear science on infectious transmission by primary school children and there is also a basket of other massively important considerations to take into account.

I think the German test and trace approach is rather more comprehensive and effective than the French and that is the country we should look to emulate.

Germany has tended to have much better figures and their good understanding of the science of infection control is why.

From the New York Times

"Germany, which was far less affected at the peak of the pandemic, shuttered schools early on, then moved to a hybrid model of remote and in-classroom learning. Class sizes were smaller, and strict social-distancing rules helped keep infection numbers in check....

" schools aim to better ventilate classrooms and keep classes separate so that each student has contact with only a few dozen others, and outbreaks can be contained....

"fast testing and targeted quarantines....

"[one] infected sixth grader had no symptoms but was tested because someone in her family had tested positive. That relative was tested after tracing the contacts of someone else, who had brought the virus home from vacation.

....The morning after the girl’s parents notified the school, a mobile testing unit from the local health authority arrived at the school and tested and interviewed all the children and teachers who had been near her. After every test came back negative, half the class was allowed to return to school. Those who had sat near the girl were told to quarantine at home for 14 days."

www.nytimes.com/2020/08/26/world/europe/germany-schools-virus-reopening.html?auth=login-google

More on Germany below

www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m2522

ourworldindata.org/covid-exemplar-germany

www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52650576

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/16/germany-vietnam-test-trace-england-coronavirus

*And no one has any idea how many primary children are off school, because as I pointed out earlier (perhaps on another thread, I've lost track), absentees with possible covid-related reasons are recorded with an X, which is a generalised code that is not reported on.

And people like you have fallen for it.*

Yes this. Probably about 2/3 out of my class with an x every single day. Some days more.

@notevenat20

But I absolutely will not live stream a lesson and become someone under constant surveillance.

I do have sympathy but it is exactly what every university lecturer now has to do now.

Its nothing like a school!! They are adults. Why would parents be listening in? Criticising lecturers... A can of worms!!! Live lessons...are you kidding?

I just want to say there is a guy that has invented a 30 second covid test gadget that attaches to a mobile phone the government are funding half his costs to bring it to the market . It’s like a diabetes test . Can you imagine what a difference that would make in schools ?

But how many times would you test once a day once a week ?

There is never a perfect answer .

I do have a question though - if we think most or a lot of kids have it without symptoms why are they not giving it to their parents?

Viral load? No idea.

Statistically, the combination of the heatmaps graphs up page and the graphs posted by Noblegiraffe at the top fairly clearly indicate that the recent rise in infections was detected first in the 10-19 age group (broken down nicely in the OP showing the biggest infections in the older years, BUT not just 18+) and then is being detected in the older groups - first the 30-44 year olds and then the 45-59s.

That would very much suggest spread from the younger to the older.

JVT said on the briefing yesterday, although the virus seeded in the young, it is now spreading to the older generations. Older as in parents of school age children. He specifically highlighted the rise in 30’s and 40’s age ranges.

I think they are passing it to the parents, but a proportion of adults is asymptomatic too. So only the cases that present with one or more of the three symptoms are found about

*I do have a question though - if we think most or a lot of kids have it without symptoms why are they not giving it to their parents?

Viral load? No idea.*

Sorry what do you mean viral load?

This is what I wonder. If the children all had it asymptomatically, or with different symptoms, as keeps being suggested on here. We'd know because all of the parents would be unwell en masse.

@notevenat20

Does anyone have figures for the proportion of cases in primary schools that are actually the teacher? In DCs school it has been the teacher every time with no positive cases in children that I know of.

Figures from the union for tier 2 region...

Didn't they recently say that women on their 40s are now the ones at more risk?

Parents are unwell as shown in the graphs above.
It’s spreading from the younger children to their parents age group.

The removal of the 'schools are not high risk settings' from the guidance speaks volumes. I hope journalists will take this further. My dc's secondary school have u turned and from Monday masks have been worn at all times apart from lunch time. At the start of term their rule was no masks to be worn anywhere on the premises. My other DC's school are now moving to masks when moving around the school.

I'm sure by next term it will be mandatory that in all secondary schools and colleges masks need to be worn at all times.

Will it be too late to stop cases escalating out of control? Yes I think so in lots of areas of the country.

@mrshoho

Masks are an impediment to learning and communication. They should be worn in the corridors but certainly not in lessons imo.

What should be happening in all schools is all windows remaining open at all times. Too many teachers are closing windows in their rooms. Personally I’d issue fines to those caught closing windows.

Ventilation is far more important than mask wearing.

mrshoho both of my children's secondary schools have moved from either no masks/optional masks to masks to be worn in communal areas this week, following govt guidance released at the weekend they said.

Which is different to the govt guidance up to now which was that it wasn't necessary for teachers, other staff or children to wear masks in schools.

Mass mask wearing from Sept onwards combined with other mitigation measures might well have reduced the spread, as that's what it seems to have done in other countries.

Not sure why people think a lockdown is a magic bullet. The virus is here now and even if we ever get a vaccine it probably will still be here in some capacity, like flu. Our medical treatment will get - and has already got - better though, which will save some lives. But for anyone thinking this virus will magically disappear - dream on!

Lockdown is a magic bullet in virus-transmission terms!

It stops it better than anything else we have right now.

@cologne4711

I do have a question though - if we think most or a lot of kids have it without symptoms why are they not giving it to their parents? My son is out and about at 6th form college, being fairly sensible but I don't pretend he's perfect. He could easily give it to me or DH. So either it's not as infectious as being claimed, or not having symptoms means you don't pass it on as easily (makes sense to me if you're not coughing everywhere) or, possibly, we have already had it.

Kids are probably giving it to their parents. How much? We just don’t know. A huge contact tracing study of half a million in India found that children and young people were the main drivers, they were the ones giving it to their parents and families. Other studies of less people, have not found as strong links.

We are still learning about transmission. It has been assumed that younger children did not transmit as much, but teenagers more so, however the evidence has been mixed - many based on schools open over summer when all across Europe case numbers low, school numbers low.

We do know that asymptomatic people DO transmit it, and at a rate that is quite high. We learnt that around early summer time.

However it is clear some people are ‘super spreaders’ - and transmit an awful lot to many people. Some people spread less. It also depends on when you were exposed to them.

You cannot take your one example and extrapolate or say ‘it’s not as infectious as being claimed’, just because you haven’t got it from your son?

I havent had any cases in my class yet or the school i teach in but we will. I am sure of that.
To the person questioning why parents aren't catching it from children if they are asymptomatic well maybe they are or maybe there are no cases in the school yet. I don't believe for a second that children don't spread it regardless of age. No other virus operates like that. NONE.
Happy to concede if someone knows that there is one that decides it doesnt want to infect children or once a child is infected doesnt want to spread to other people? Exactly what is the point of a virus then?

@PracticingPerson

Lockdown is also a magic bullet in causing poverty and job losses.