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Covid

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Is Covid becoming less severe?

70 replies

Cam77 · 19/10/2020 17:59

There has been speculation among some experts that Covid “might” be less severe than earlier in the year (eg, Jan - May infections). This is v.difficult to prove either way given all the variables. However, some scientists have stated that they don’t feel the differences in age of those infected (IE now heavily weighted to the young) is in itself sufficient to explain away the much lower mortality rates. On the other hand it could also be that in Jan - March/April only those with pretty severe symptoms were getting tests. So it hasn’t become less severe - we were just not testing the mild cases before while now we are testing virtually everyone. Again, so many variables.

Anecdotally, it seems on recent threads about “have you had Covid?” and MN and similar threads elsewhere I have noted that it seems those who reported severe symptoms/long duration tended to be those who tested positive in the first 4 or 5 months of the year. Eg Jan - April/May. But is that just explained away by the above about the prevalence of testing now?

Anyone, has anyone on here tested positive recently (IE last couple of months) and had severe/long lasting symptoms - IE worse than a bout of seasonal flu?

OP posts:
JamesAnderson · 19/10/2020 18:20

There is some speculation that mask wearing reduces the severity of covid

Milkshake7489 · 19/10/2020 18:48

It would be great if it had but with so many variables I don't know what to think.

Do you have links to which scientists have said this please?

Porcupineinwaiting · 19/10/2020 18:51

Yes and no. The virus is just the same and as lethal or not as it ever was. But with the distancing measures etc in place many people are being infected by a much smaller dose (no colleagues in the office coughing over you for days) which may make it less severe.

HotToCold · 19/10/2020 18:53

The viral load can be less with distancing and mask wearing

Drugs are working and treatments are better

SheepandCow · 19/10/2020 18:53

The daily number of deaths suggests otherwise.

Separately, Long Covid remains a huge concern. Many sufferers had only mild cases initially. And, as it's still such early days with much more to learn, who knows whether we'll discover hidden damage in asymptomatic cases sometime in the future.

BernadetteRostankowskiWolowitz · 19/10/2020 18:55

There was a very small testing pool in March/April So only those who suffered were noted.

Now....well, everyone and their mums is getting tested.

I'd imagine it's similar strength/potency, but the pool of people being tested now is enormous in comparison to 6 months ago.

MuserOwl · 19/10/2020 18:57

I dont understand the viral load issue. Is that what makes you get a BAD cold not an average cold, somebody sneezing right in to your face. I never knew it made a difference. Im not disagreeing with this btw, i just think it's interesting.

CountessFrog · 19/10/2020 18:59

My DH is an intensive care consultant. The word amongst his colleagues is that the patients they currently have on the unit are all over 70 and with existing health issues.

Back in April, the patients were often younger and without underlying issues.

It does however suggest that the more severe disease is now in the elderly and that the current measures will be regarded as essentially ‘saving the elderly’ rather than previous lockdown efforts to ‘save us all.’

CountessFrog · 19/10/2020 19:00

Viral load is how much if the virus you were exposed to.

So waking past somebody with covid would be a much lower viral load exposure than looking in their mouth.

MuserOwl · 19/10/2020 19:02

I guess the immune system isnt quick enough to respond to a big sneeze in the face but if you touch one surface and get it that way the immune system has time to fight back

Beechview · 19/10/2020 19:08

There could be other factors as well. Haven’t the nhs got better at treating it too? Different medications? Maybe many people are taking vitamin d?

Kaitness · 19/10/2020 19:11

DH in bed for the fourth week now. Not mild in any form whatsoever.

NebbiaZanzare · 19/10/2020 19:17

Some doctors over here (inc. my ex ER doc, now GP) believe ONE of the factors may be that the use of masks is reducing viral load. More testing means more people with mild/low or no symptom cases who habitually wear masks (to varying degrees of effectiveness) are isolating early on. That in turn protects them from being exposed to a higher viral load from various sources. As well as stopping them from inadvertently playing a role in others being exposed to a higher viral load from various sources.

There are probably other factors at play. For example the average age of positive results has also dropped a lot. I guess with a significant number older and more vulnerable people taking protective measure that will be part of the picture. But also higher numbers people are more likely to be tested than they were when schools/unis/entertainment venues/workplaces were closed. (school was shut from our first case on the the 27th Feb where I live, already closed for carnival, never reopened for the rest of the ac. year)

It's really hard to compare then and now and pinpoint what factors play a greater or lesser role in statistical differences. Plasma & effective meds play a greater role in treatment than they did back in early Spring. Earlier treatment is favoured as opposed to a focus on only the most serious cases when people are in extremis. Testing protocols and testing numbers then and now aren't similar. People's behaviour has changed.

A chunk of the most vulnerable to a serious case and poor outcomes may have already died. Some before we'd even heard of COVID. I think the earliest reviewed post mortem samples showed an elderly man in my region (Lombardia) died in Oct 2019 from pneumonia, his samples revealed a positive result for covid. No travel history.

A certain level of herd immunity, while not an impenetrable force, may be playing a role in the way positive cases are presenting up my end of the country. Some of the hardest hit provinces are showing comparatively lower numbers of new cases than provinces & regions that got locked down before the virus could spread in the community.

But it's hard to tease out to what extent that may be down to significant immunity in the community, or sudden and persistent behavioural changes caused by the trauma of so much serious illness & death in such a short time scale.

I've pretty much resigned myself to a three-five year wait before we can be reliably sure of the ins and outs of what we got right, what we got wrong, how many lives were lost to the virus, how many to the reaction to the virus and how the virus mutated/altered its ability to spread and harm.

Newgirlint0wn · 19/10/2020 19:19

@HotToCold

The viral load can be less with distancing and mask wearing

Drugs are working and treatments are better

@HotToCold

Is this saying that even with a mask and 2m distance you can still spread/catch Covid?

JamesAnderson · 19/10/2020 19:19

@Milkshake7489

It would be great if it had but with so many variables I don't know what to think.

Do you have links to which scientists have said this please?

www.google.com/search?q=mask+wearing+reduces+covid&oq=mask+wearing+reduces&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j0i457j0i22i30j0i10i22i30j0i22i30.10637j0j7&client=ms-android-oneplus&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8

Like I say, speculation

Greenleaves20 · 19/10/2020 19:21

I had a positive test a month ago and I’m still struggling with post viral fatigue, as is my husband. We’re in our 30’s, fit and healthy and usually very active. This has felt much worse than any other fatigue I’ve ever experienced. It’s a heavy feeling almost like being sedated. We both had coughs and fevers but the overwhelming feature throughout has been the tiredness. I never want to get this again as I’d be scared I wouldn’t recover and would be on the sofa too tired to do anything.

SheepandCow · 19/10/2020 19:23

@CountessFrog

My DH is an intensive care consultant. The word amongst his colleagues is that the patients they currently have on the unit are all over 70 and with existing health issues.

Back in April, the patients were often younger and without underlying issues.

It does however suggest that the more severe disease is now in the elderly and that the current measures will be regarded as essentially ‘saving the elderly’ rather than previous lockdown efforts to ‘save us all.’

Where is this? Liverpool ICUs have plenty of middle-aged patients. It must vary across the country.

It's not just about death in any case.
There's the significant risk of long-term disability from Long Covid.

And if course, if Covid isn't contained no-one gets hospital treatment for anything - broken leg, car accident, meningitis, heart attack, etc. Because the hospital beds will be full and staff off ill (Covid, Long Covid, PTSD).

Greenleaves20 · 19/10/2020 19:24

I would add also that we got the virus from our toddler who was a close contact of a positive case at nursery. He developed symptoms first which were a runny nose and a fever for him. We spent a few days cuddling him and wiping his snot so I imagine our viral load was fairly high.

satnighttakeaway · 19/10/2020 19:26

@Kaitness

DH in bed for the fourth week now. Not mild in any form whatsoever.
I don't think anyone is suggesting that there are no serious cases, that would be nonsense but it has been suggested for months now that the severity across the whole population might be decreasing

Like others have posted there's not going to be a yes or no answer, far too many variable.

SheepandCow · 19/10/2020 19:27

I read a sad story the other day, about a 33 year old fitness influencer who dismissed Covid. He's now dead. Caught Covid, which caused irreparable cardiac damage.

www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/influencer-dmitriy-stuzhuk-dies-from-covid-19-after-denying-its-existence-12107174

Coldandwet123 · 19/10/2020 19:28

@SheepandCow

The daily number of deaths suggests otherwise.

Separately, Long Covid remains a huge concern. Many sufferers had only mild cases initially. And, as it's still such early days with much more to learn, who knows whether we'll discover hidden damage in asymptomatic cases sometime in the future.

The point about asymptomatic people you make is interesting. My mum has had episodes of fatigue and feeling awful this year. But 'not had' covid. I had it in April and have just got over it (still a few lasting effects like joint and muscle pain). My mums episodes are just like my relapses. I wonder if she had it but didn't have the symptoms. Its all very weird.
Ecosse · 19/10/2020 19:33

@SheepandCow

Of course there will always be one or two examples of otherwise fit people who have died with COVID. The media loves to cover these when they occur.

The fact remains however that only 307 people under the age of 65 with no underlying health conditions have died with COVID. Many thousands more will have died in road traffic accidents despite the media scaremongering.

XiCi · 19/10/2020 19:36

Liverpool ICUs have plenty of middle-aged patients
There are only 14 patients in icu across the Liverpool trusts so I think that's probably a bit misleading. I definitely think it's less severe. I'm in a tier 3 area and know so many people who have had covid now from children to adults in their 70s and all the adults have said it was like a very mild cold. The children either only had a headache, mild cold symptoms or a temperature for a few hours.

Coldandwet123 · 19/10/2020 19:38

@Greenleaves20 it does get easier. In August I was very fatigued still and had to calculate daily activities.
I'm back at work teaching and its non stop. To my delight, I realised the other day I had end of half term tiredness rather than the awful fatigue.
You're right, its worse than other viral fatigue. The best advice I got (from a doctor on youtube) is to find your baseline activity from the day and build from there. If you suffer, take it down a notch. It worked for me and now in October I feel lots better. It took six months but you will get there.
Wishing you a fulll recovery back to good health.

Jrobhatch29 · 19/10/2020 19:40

I didn't know any confirmed cases in the first wave so I can't comment on that. However I live in the NE and now know about 7 or 8 people whove has it in the last 2 months or so, all different ages. They've all been asymptomatic or said it was like a heavy cold. There's also been around 30-40 cases on my DPs zone at work and nobody has been hospitalised. Most lost taste and smell. One felt like he had a bad flu.