Is Covid becoming less severe?

[Cam77]

There has been speculation among some experts that Covid “might” be less severe than earlier in the year (eg, Jan - May infections). This is v.difficult to prove either way given all the variables. However, some scientists have stated that they don’t feel the differences in age of those infected (IE now heavily weighted to the young) is in itself sufficient to explain away the much lower mortality rates. On the other hand it could also be that in Jan - March/April only those with pretty severe symptoms were getting tests. So it hasn’t become less severe - we were just not testing the mild cases before while now we are testing virtually everyone. Again, so many variables.

Anecdotally, it seems on recent threads about “have you had Covid?” and MN and similar threads elsewhere I have noted that it seems those who reported severe symptoms/long duration tended to be those who tested positive in the first 4 or 5 months of the year. Eg Jan - April/May. But is that just explained away by the above about the prevalence of testing now?

Anyone, has anyone on here tested positive recently (IE last couple of months) and had severe/long lasting symptoms - IE worse than a bout of seasonal flu?

(Originally posted by RedToothBrush on another thread)

news.sky.com/story/long-covid-the-debilitating-after-effects-of-coronavirus-12104961

A recent Oxford University study has left experts concerned about Long Covid in younger low risk (of death) patients. These are patients who often had initial mild cases of Covid without requiring hospitalisation.

The cash-strapped NHS is setting up treatment clinics across the UK. Long Covid is a very real concern.

Risks include: heart, lung, or kidney damage, triggering type 1 diabetes, and blood clotting issues.

We still have much to learn. Who knows what other possibly initially hidden damage will come to light in the future.

[quote Derbygerbil]@Ecosse

The fact remains however that only 307 people under the age of 65 with no underlying health conditions have died with COVID. Many thousands more will have died in road traffic accidents despite the media scaremongering.

Based on death rates in previous years, about we could expect 900 deaths since March from road accidents, not “many thousands”. However, your point stands, your very unlikely to die if your fit and young, and you can always find exceptional cases. However, 300+ deaths, albeit tiny statistically, is more than a handful, and for young, fit people is still very bad for an infectious disease.[/quote]
Millions of under 65s including many essential workers - doctors, nurses, other health and social care workers, delivery drivers, etc have underlying conditions.

You may not care about them but without them society and the economy grinds to a halt.

And of course the number of dead of any age, underlying condition or not, will rise if Covid isn't contained. Lots of people (including plenty of younger healthy ones) survived only because they had access to hospital treatment. That won't be possible if beds fill up and staff are off sick.

@SheepandCow

Beds were nowhere close to filling up in April. In fact, the Nightingale hospitals were never used and many NHS staff were twiddling their thumbs.

I have no doubt that there will be local pressures. But the trend in terms of deaths and hospitalisations, while upwards, is significantly flatter and more drawn out than we saw earlier this year.

The second wave will be longer and flatter than the first one. That, accompanied by the measures we have and the reintroduction of shielding, will get us through the winter.

It’s not becoming severe but people’s perceptions have changed.

@ecosse

You know (because we've discussed it on other threads) that the doctors and nurses were not 'twiddling their thumbs'. That's actually really rather offensive to say considering we've lost too many HCP already to Covid, with many more suffering from Long Covid or PTSD.

The nightingales weren't used (despite being needed) because of a lack of staff. Beds didn't fill up because action was taken. Too late for some areas.

Also, people were admitted too late. Hence the high death rate, one of the world's highest. In London the ambulance service had to temporarily change it's hospital admissions criteria. Birmingham too was at one stage overwhelmed.

The BMA has been calling for containment measures for weeks. I'm sure the doctors there will be delighted to hear your claims of their thumb twiddling. You'll be as popular as Jeremy Hunt I should imagine...

If we’re comparing like with like, we should really exclude all those in the road deaths group who have underlying conditions, just as we do with COVID deaths.

@Motorina

It’s totally different. Anyone can die in a road traffic accident, whereas we know almost exactly which groups are at risk from COVID.

This should allow us to protect these people better. What should certainly not be happening is that they are expected to attend work and school as normal as is current policy.

Well, sort of. But, if you work on the basis that the flu-jab eligible population are those at risk, then that’s 30 million. Nearly half the population. How do you shield that many?? Having done the risk assessments for my NHS team I can tell you we would be sending home 50%, and our service would collapse. I suspect most schools would be unable to function, too.

One of the repeated ways people minimise COVID is to say, “Well, only a few hundred under 65s without underlying conditions have died.” But the list of underlying conditions is very long. Mild asthma. Taking an antidepressant. Any learning difficulties. Acne. Not conditions one would expect to be life limiting in any way.

Which is why I say when people compare road deaths with COVID-deaths-excluding-underlying-conditions, then they’re comparing apples and cheese.

'These people'...

Absolutely no 'underlying health conditions' is almost impossible in anyone over 30 or 40 these days. Do they give you a physical checkup at the Nazi Academy?

Viruses normally weaken over time,so it’s likely this is what is happening with Covid.

@cbt944

Except it is just nonsense to state that every underlying health condition substantially increases your risk from COVID.

It is very clear which conditions put people at risk and there are nothing like 30 million vulnerable individuals.

Except it is just nonsense to state that every underlying health condition substantially increases your risk from COVID.

Agreed. Which is why saying “The fact remains however that only 307 people under the age of 65 with no underlying health conditions have died with COVID. Many thousands more will have died in road traffic accidents” is playing fast and loose with the statistics. Most of those underlying health conditions are of no more relevance for covid than they are for car crashes.

My risk is 3 times higher....

Im 36 years old!

Except it is just nonsense to state that every underlying health condition substantially increases your risk from COVID.

I didn't state that.

You said: "The fact remains however that only 307 people under the age of 65 with no underlying health conditions have died with COVID."

Just a few of the underlying conditions that affect Covid outcome:

Hypertension. Over a third of adults in the UK.

www.nhs.uk/conditions/high-blood-pressure-hypertension/

Diabetes, type 2. Close to 5 million with diabetes in the UK, with 90% being type 2.

www.diabetes.org.uk/about_us/news/diabetes-prevalence-2019

Cardiovascular disease, common in middle age.
Obesity, increasingly common these days.
Smoking, and smoking-related lung problems.
COPD.

Adults are at increased risk of having underlying conditions, simply by aging into middle age.

My Dad has hypertension. Been completely controlled by medication for years and he is an otherwise perfectly healthy 72 year old who lives an active life. If he gets Covid he stands a much higher risk of dying, but would be classified as someone with underlying conditions, so it's apparently ok if he dies. Never mind if he could have another 10 or 20 good years ahead of him to spend with his grandchildren.

He probably wouldnt die though marjory. Even if you have an underlying condition the risks are very low. My friends grandfather and grandmother got covid a couple of weeks ago and both have several very serious health problems and are in their late 70s. I would have thought them unable to survive covid or at the very least be hospitalised. Both were fine and said it was like a mild cold. It's not an instant death sentence if you have an underlying condition.

My Dad has hypertension. Been completely controlled by medication for years and he is an otherwise perfectly healthy 72 year old who lives an active life. If he gets Covid he stands a much higher risk of dying, but would be classified as someone with underlying conditions, so it's apparently ok if he dies. Never mind if he could have another 10 or 20 good years ahead of him to spend with his grandchildren.

So does my husband, in his 50s. Just diagnosed. Waiting for a medication protocol which can't happen until further tests are done. All the same it doesn't mean he's been handed a death sentence. And he really can't be any more careful than he has been since Feb, unless we are prepared to go back to full on hermit. Which we aren't cos that has implications for the well being of our 20 yo son and our finances.

I've yet to come across anybody, regardless of the extent to which they are critical of national or regional governments' handling of the crisis, who has a gung ho "oh well, the weak will die, tough titty" perspective towards those (DH, maybe me) who are considerably more vulnerable. Possibly because most of us know somebody who died, or is bereaved, thanks to a combo of covid and increased susceptibility.

Bear in mind many of us also know people who died, or are bereaved, due to the anti covid measures. It's no less difficult to comfort isolated people over zoom when their mother/father died due to postponed medical intervention, or being discharged far too early thus dying with the family constantly ringing for help that never came. My husband & son are devastated by the death of DH's friend, a big cheese in my son's sport, who died very prematurely in his 50s due to paused care, a delayed op, early discharge when a more extensive version of the op finally happened and a black hole where post operative care would normally have been. The inquiry into that particular death won't make for easy reading. It was gruesome.

My impression over here is that what many people want is more targeted support that will allow the more vulnerable to voluntarily shield to the extent they believe they can live with. Because one fear is that resources will be spread too thin, become far too patchy, if job losses, business closures & school shut downs leave a huge number of people reliant on the state to keep their heads above water. Thinner & thinner resources will potentially create a very very leaky rescue boat for the vulnerable to sail in.

I'm currently,off work with Covid, having tested positive last week.
I feel worse than when I've had flu - although I should say it feels very very different to flu. I don't have flu like symptoms.

My symptoms very much feel like when I was ill with pneumonia several years ago. It feels very much like that, although not worse than that.

Both times have included a hospital stay. This time was before my positive result came through - I was tested there and positive result came through whilst still there. Not eligible for testing before as not the big 3 symptoms. I was being investigated for pneumonia or a blood clot on my lungs, due to the symptoms.

My most 'dangerous' symptom health wise was a dangerously high blood pressure - stage 3 hypertension, crisis level. This has stabilised with medication.

Hypertension. Over a third of adults in the UK.

I should add that I did now have high blood pressure before this. It was certainly never at the level it was last week, which was dangerously high.

It will be interesting to see if once this is out of my system my blood pressure will return to normal, but the doctors seem to suggest I could well be taking BP medication for ever now.

For clarity, I was classed as clinically vulnerable - I have inflammatory arthritis and take medication which reduces my immune system. I had a flare up earlier in the summer and had a generalised steroid injection to combat that. My 'underlying health conditions' would not be classed as life-span reducing however, in other words I wouldn't be expected to die from them or have a shorter life expectancy due to them.