Anyone else feeling optimistic about the recent vaccine headlines?

[Newgirlint0wn]

Just that really, a few different news articles suggesting a vaccine could be available by early 2021.

Anyone else feel optimistic this could be true?
I know it doesn’t mean back to normality, but surely a successful vaccine this soon could be the path back to normal life?

The problem with a vaccine that only reduces symptoms, not spread and cant be given to the most vunerable groups is that it wont actually reduce deaths by much because the people most likely to die still won't have any protection.

@notevenat20

Not really OP, as anyone under 50 without medical conditions that make them vulnerable is very unlikely to get it. So our DC's education is likely to be disrupted for the foreseeable future, because every time a DC within within their bubble tests positive the whole class/year group gets sent home for two weeks.

Even worse, every time a teacher gets infected which seems to be the main cause of closure in primaries.

Aren’t teachers key workers ? If so in a priority group.

Why couldn't it be given to the most vulnerable groups?
And if it brings a lot of people down the scale from coughing all over the place to being asymptomatic, then that will reduce spread too, as it won't get spluttered everywhere.

You mean the experimental vaccine currently being developed in China, of all places? Hmmm, let me think about that... NO!

I teach students how to give injections. It’s not rocket science. To be honest you don’t need to be a nursing student.

Too right. I had to learn to give DH injections as part of his cancer treatment...watch the nurse do one, do one under her supervision, then off you go home and you're on your own. It was fine.

How many times have we been told that there's a vaccine just around the corner?

I'm not listening to it anymore. It doesn't go anywhere near to convincing me, I'm afraid. Like a carrot to keep us all going. That's all it is.

How many times have we been told that there's a vaccine just around the corner?

No times. They’ve always been perfectly clear about the timelines and what’s realistic.

@Dustballs

How many times have we been told that there's a vaccine just around the corner?

I'm not listening to it anymore. It doesn't go anywhere near to convincing me, I'm afraid. Like a carrot to keep us all going. That's all it is.

We haven’t! Particularly not by the very careful, highly qualified types like JVT.

Back when the phase 3 trials of the Oxford vaccine began there was a possibility, but no more than that, that they could be done by the end of summer. It became clear a good few months ago that the most optimistic possible time scales weren’t what was going to happen, largely because we were successful in getting on top of the first outbreak so trial participants weren’t catching it fast enough for a quick result. Nobody has been dangling it like a carrot ffs.

"How many times have we been told that there's a vaccine just around the corner?"

I haven't heard or read anything along those lines. What I do remember reading and hearing back in summer at around the time when the AstraZeneca (Oxford) phase 3 trials were being expanded to the US and South Africa is that the earliest they expected efficacy data was end of October / early November and that still looks possible now.

Obviously you cannot expect an exact timetable as it depends on when enough people in the trial get infected which also depends on the spread and prevalence of the disease in the areas where the trials are taking place.

@duffeldaisy

Why couldn't it be given to the most vulnerable groups? And if it brings a lot of people down the scale from coughing all over the place to being asymptomatic, then that will reduce spread too, as it won't get spluttered everywhere.

It can be given (maybe) to people who are vulnerable but most vaccines are much less effective in elderly people and none of these vaccines have been tested on vulnerable covid groups, only the fit and healthy. Hopefully my worries are unfounded but i think we have to be realistic.

"none of these vaccines have been tested on vulnerable covid groups, only the fit and healthy."

Some have or will be (see other thread).

My biggest concern is that it sounds like people will continue to shed the virus and be able to pass it on after being immunised with this first generation of vaccines. So if we don’t vaccinate the entire population a lot of people will still get seriously ill, especially say those in their 50s who won’t be in the early rounds of eligibilty but still frequently get severely ill.

As somebody with a suppressed immune system but not classed as ECV it’s my nightmare to imagine everybody returning to normal in this situation.

Forblueskies this is my worry too. Once the most vulnerable are vaccinated will the rest be expected to get back to normal? And all those who are borderline for age/vulnerability will just get ill then. It’s almost worse than where we are now where we are supressing the virus.

Quote from an MP about JVT talking about the Oxford vaccine ( from The Times behind a paywall):

Van-Tam expects it to protect the elderly and vulnerable. He gave us to understand that it stopped the virus ‘shedding’ in the young

@cathyandclare

Quote from an MP about JVT talking about the Oxford vaccine ( from The Times behind a paywall):

Van-Tam expects it to protect the elderly and vulnerable. He gave us to understand that it stopped the virus ‘shedding’ in the young

I really hope that’s correct, but it’s contrary to their primate study and other reports I’ve read that suggested only one candidate (not the Oxford one) has been shown to reduce shedding.

We won't know for sure yet, but JVT is usually pretty cautious. I understood that they were expecting virus pick up from the primates because they flooded their nasal passages with the virus.

Hopefully the right decisions will be made by public health. I feel the over 60s and perhaps over 50s will be protected and the under 25s will generally be ok. But in between ages may not have much benefit from a vaccine produced.
I guess it will at least reduce impact on nhs. Which is better at least if you do get it treatment should be available

@feelingverylazytoday totally agree with:

Yes, I'm very optimistic, and have been all along. I have every faith in these brilliant scientists, especially our Oxford team.

@jasjas1973 what's your evidence then for thinking China is well ahead and has kept information back?