Anyone else feeling optimistic about the recent vaccine headlines?

[Newgirlint0wn]

Just that really, a few different news articles suggesting a vaccine could be available by early 2021.

Anyone else feel optimistic this could be true?
I know it doesn’t mean back to normality, but surely a successful vaccine this soon could be the path back to normal life?

Valance says today in the Guardian that there will be no vaccine before spring at the earliest.

@Mumisnotmyonlyname no he does not say that.

The article says ‘A vaccine against coronavirus will not eradicate the disease or be widely available before the spring...’

That is not the same thing. It does not mean it won’t start being rolled out to healthcare workers and the very vulnerable before spring.

I feel optimistic. We've got a few tricky months ahead, but hopefully during them they will begin vaccinations, which will start to take the pressure off and by the Spring/Summer, things should look a lot brighter covid wise.

As per GoldenOmber’s excellent post above.

The article says,
‘Vallance said that while there might be doses available sooner, it was unlikely it would be rolled out for use in the community before spring 2021.’

He’s not contradicting Van Tam, he’s just managing expectations so we don’t get people feeling they were lied to because it’s not available to them immediately. (Or worse, abandoning precautions before there has been time to get to enough people to make a difference.)

In a word no, I think it's a tactic to keep people sane and hopeful.

Most people won't get the vaccine and by the time it is available to the general public there will be a similar low-interest level as the flu vaccine has (only the very old and vulnerable will get it).

The rapid acceleration of the initial wave won't happen again. There will be a broad but low number of daily deaths this winter, but we won't see the huge numbers of daily deaths we saw in April.

The vaccine most likely won't stop you from catching the virus, just it will lower your symptoms and infectiousness. As Patrick Vallance says, the virus will continue to circulate, mainly in winter, like other coronaviruses.

[quote CoffeeandCroissant]"There is already a vaccine, the Chinese are using it in the general population, so why aren't we looking at theirs?"

They haven't completed phase 3 trials yet.
mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2710UQ[/quote]
Many thanks for sharing that, I understood the Oxford protocol but had been searching for a simple explanation of the others.

It's more clear why the Pfizer seems to have leap-frogged the Oxford one (judging by the CEO's open letter last week). It has more interim analysis factored in- with the first at 32 events. The Oxford only has one at 75.

[quote whatswithtodaytoday]@Mum2jenny The flu vaccine is variably efficacious because there are many different strains of flu, and they have to make a guess at which will be most prevelent in any given year. That is understandably quite tricky, and sometimes they get it wrong.

There are different strains of Covid, but they don't differ enough that a different vaccine is necessary (yet, at least). They may not be 100% effective and we will likely have to have yearly vaccinations (like flu) but they should give good protection to reduce the severity of illness and reduce the spread throughout the population. As time goes on better and more effective vaccines will probably be developed.[/quote]
I was very interested in the Cambridge vaccine- only just got funding for very early stage trials- but it's designed to protect against most coronaviruses, so would potentially protect against future mutations.

That's one for the future though, I think that one of the first few ( together with some immunity in the young and rapid testing) will give us a return to some form of normality before that!

Not really OP, as anyone under 50 without medical conditions that make them vulnerable is very unlikely to get it. So our DC's education is likely to be disrupted for the foreseeable future, because every time a DC within within their bubble tests positive the whole class/year group gets sent home for two weeks. On top of that all competitive sports are banned unless played in reduced format within bubbles.

It's shit and I see no end in sight. They'll vaccinate people in their 80s and 90s with dementia who have a likely lifespan of

[quote zafferana]Not really OP, as anyone under 50 without medical conditions that make them vulnerable is very unlikely to get it. So our DC's education is likely to be disrupted for the foreseeable future, because every time a DC within within their bubble tests positive the whole class/year group gets sent home for two weeks. On top of that all competitive sports are banned unless played in reduced format within bubbles.

It's shit and I see no end in sight. They'll vaccinate people in their 80s and 90s with dementia who have a likely lifespan of

[quote zafferana]Not really OP, as anyone under 50 without medical conditions that make them vulnerable is very unlikely to get it. So our DC's education is likely to be disrupted for the foreseeable future, because every time a DC within within their bubble tests positive the whole class/year group gets sent home for two weeks. On top of that all competitive sports are banned unless played in reduced format within bubbles.

It's shit and I see no end in sight. They'll vaccinate people in their 80s and 90s with dementia who have a likely lifespan of

Then how come @onedayinthefuture schools aren't playing fixtures against one another? How come sports clubs aren't playing fixtures against one another?

They are allowed to train and play non-contact, with contact being limited to 15 mins only.

I don't know about schools although my dd partake in a team sport at school. I play a competitive organised sport in a tier 2 zone and I play every week (contact sport), 11 vs 11

Yes! You are right to be optimistic. We are hearing from professors and scientists everywhere that things are looking good. Prof Peter Openshaw was on radio 4 this morning talking about it

Sorry @CoffeeandCroissant I quoted the wrong post. It was the Twitter stream with the protocols I was referencing.

@zafferana

Then how come *@onedayinthefuture* schools aren't playing fixtures against one another? How come sports clubs aren't playing fixtures against one another?

They are allowed to train and play non-contact, with contact being limited to 15 mins only.

Maybe not schools but sports clubs are certainly competing. My DS football league is up and running and netball leagues are starting up next week for both kids and adults to play competitively against other teams. The governing bodies have presented risk mitigation's and the government gave the red light a while back.

I'm really optimistic about it, I think it's fantastic news...I'm due a baby at the end of January and it's amazing to think I might be able to be out and about with her in Spring and attend a few groups over summer and even get a holiday in before my Maternity Leave is over

Well, rugby is still in the state I mentioned @onedayinthefuture and neither of my DC's schools is playing any fixtures at all. Just training/playing within their year group bubbles. It's better than nothing, but it's a far cry from what they would normally be doing.

Not really OP, as anyone under 50 without medical conditions that make them vulnerable is very unlikely to get it. So our DC's education is likely to be disrupted for the foreseeable future, because every time a DC within within their bubble tests positive the whole class/year group gets sent home for two weeks.

Even worse, every time a teacher gets infected which seems to be the main cause of closure in primaries.

I'm cautiously optimistic of a vaccine by next Spring, not really before then.

Don't forget these vaccines will need 2 doses (one month apart) so that will extend the amount of time needed to vaccinate various groups. I don't think any of the 3 front runners are single-dose vaccines.

I’m involved in a stage 3 vaccine trial. The doc in charge told us that by the spring he expects several different vaccines to be in production and many people in the Uk specifically the very vulnerable and health and social care workers, to be getting the shots. Widespread vaccination could happen later but isn’t necessarily necessary.

He stressed that none of these will be a magic bullet however. People will be given different vaccines and they will all offer some kind of protection but not necessarily long term. It will likely not be eradicated for a very long time and we will likely end up with a yearly vaccination programme for a few years at least. But by the spring a combination of vaccines and new treatments will put us in a significantly better place than we are now.

I think the government is right to play it down though. No guarantees in any of this.

I don’t think they can vaccinate children as the vaccine hasn’t been trialled in children.

Once they’ve done with older people, HCWs, care workers, ECV, it makes sense for teachers to be fairly high up the priority order. I’d also add uni students to that list.

As someone under 40, with no vulnerabilities and the ability to socially distance in my job, I’ll be very low priority, but I’ll be extremely happy to see my parents sorted.

I'm optimistic ! Referring to earlier posts teachers are key workers so surely will be vaccinated helping schools stay open.

"Pfizer announced this week that it has received FDA approval to enroll children as young as 12 years old in its COVID-19 vaccine trial. The expansion is aimed at understanding whether the vaccine would be safe and effective for adolescents."

"Until now, children under 16 have not been included in any of the COVID-19 vaccine trials in the U.S., and the average age of participants has skewed much older."
www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/10/13/923248377/will-kids-get-a-covid-19-vaccine-pfizer-to-expand-trial-to-ages-12-and-up

This is what's been keeping me going. I'm really looking forward to the first vaccine coming out. Yes, it will take months to get it out to everyone, and they'll have to prioritise the most vulnerable first, but every day, the more people who have it, the less the virus can spread, so it'll be a gradual sense of relief to know that the chances of getting it (badly) will be less. On a personal level I want to be able to travel to see family again without fear of killing them/making them seriously ill, and also to see businesses pick up again and be able to employ people again.

Even if all it does is turn it into a bad cold, and we have to take it every year, I can live with that. Am silently cheering on the researchers and the volunteers working on this.