Why did the government lock down so long the first time?

[IheartNiles]

They’ve never bothered to explain this to the population. We were told 3 weeks in March. No one with any sense will trust that any future 2-3 week lockdown is going to finish on the date stated. If it’s enforced then an end date must be written into law.

The NHS (I work in a London hospital) was coping just fine by a month into the first lockdown - the wards had emptied and we were able to restart elective treatments. But for reasons unexplained to this day the government decided to extend locking down the country from 3 weeks to 4 months, with school children missing education for almost 6 months. It obviously wasn’t an elimination strategy as borders were kept open and then at the end people were encouraged to resume overseas travel.

If they’d stuck with occasional 2-3 week ‘circuit breakers’ at the beginning 1. The NHS would’ve coped 2. Business wouldn’t have gone under 3. We’d be closer to the talked about ‘herd immunity’ 4. year 10-13 education wouldn’t be fucked 5. people wouldn’t be utterly fucked off with it / terrified they’ll lose their jobs/home / mental health shot to pieces - and may have been more willing to comply.

To add when schools were closed we were told (in Scotland at least) that it was extremely unlikely that they would reopen before August. I know Boris was less clear.

One observation that I will make though - when the UK governments scientific advisors were running around like headless chickens in March, predicting 200,000+ deaths this year from Covid (remember those headlines anyone), an expert epidemiologist from Oxford pointed out that their figures were almost certainly wrong and that based on her own workings, the actual figures were in the region of 50,000 - she actually said 30,000 - 60,000. She didn't say that was ok or acceptable - just that the figures being flung around were almost certainly wildly wrong. She even pointed out where they had made the errors in calculation. She was savaged by the UK government, the media and their scientists. It was made personal, and very much a case of "the little lady hasn't a clue and should go away". That Professor was correct - take a look at the figures and there is your proof. And she also happens to be one of the three main signatories to the Barrington agreement.

It's far easier for those who disagree with the Barrington agreement to paint its architects as a bunch of quacks/extremists than to look at the actual facts.

The agreement has gained significant traction in the scientific community and been signed by thousands of scientists yet all that rag - aka the Guardian - can focus on is that some of the signatories are fake.

I can’t imagine your Hospital was doing fine after a month OP. The North was really bad at the hospitals!
The hospitals couldn’t manage, lack of staff. People were at home and died because they were told not to present at A&E.

Boris absolutely did say we can turn this around in 12 weeks so let's not pretend that he ever once said oh you'll still be knee deep in this shit by Christmas. At one point he said social distancing would be over by November as well.

This is not the British public being shit for brains. This is the leader of the British public leading the British public down the fucking garden path.

Johnson should have quit as leader as soon as he got Covid. He lost all ability to govern objectively on the issue after he became ill.

when the UK governments scientific advisors were running around like headless chickens in March, predicting 200,000+ deaths this year from Covid (remember those headlines anyone), an expert epidemiologist from Oxford pointed out that their figures were almost certainly wrong and that based on her own workings, the actual figures were in the region of 50,000 - she actually said 30,000 - 60,000.

Your memories are off I fear. The predictions the government was dealing with were hundreds of thousands of deaths without a lockdown, 20,000-50,000 with a lockdown. We then had a lockdown, so obviously nobody was expecting the ‘hundreds of thousands’ estimate to still hold. But that 20,000-50,000 seems to have held up pretty well.

Are you talking about Sunetra Gupta? She also estimated that the country had reached enough immunity in July that we wouldn’t have to worry about a second wave. Sometimes people get things wrong.

Because they didn’t have track and trace in place (and still don’t properly now).

Because they scared people shitless and everyone was therefore happy to remain locked up and safe while being paid furlough.

no, you make yourself look stupid when you exaggerate to try and make a point. They missed four months, not six

In the case of GCSE and A level students, they missed 1/5 of their face to face teaching time (and counting in a lot of cases). Is that ok, or will you find something to criticise about that statement too?

The kids were out of school for six months.

This is such a good question. I’ve wondered it myself many times, but even more interesting to hear it from someone working in the NHS.

I had no idea that the NHS was on top of the virus so soon.

I’m so confused by this that I often wonder whether the Tories actually want to trash the economy.

@Dustballs

This is such a good question. I’ve wondered it myself many times, but even more interesting to hear it from someone working in the NHS.

I had no idea that the NHS was on top of the virus so soon.

Please don't take this poster's account as any way factual. Think back to 3 weeks after the initial lockdown. Admissions had levelled off in London but ICUs were full and hospitals were redirecting patients from other trusts. We had daily briefings with graphs showing how many hospital patients there were. I don't know what hospital the OP is talking about.

Schools would have gone back in May had it not been for the teaching unions.

We should have fully opened in May, with a rule of 6, curfew, social distancing, masks and the vulnerable choosing to shield if they wish.

Where my parents live there are hardly any cases. Testing centres are empty. My step has been told criteria for his cataract operations have changed from 50% to 70% and the NHS will no longer conduct the op unless his cataracts deteriorate further. He asked the same consultant if they could be done privately "absolutely sir, I can book you in next wèek". It's an absolute disgrace. Why can the same man do it privately in the private wing of the same hospital but the NHS can't?

Private surgery stopped at the peak and a lot of private surgery will have to stop in the hotspots because they rely on the NHS having ICU capacity if anything goes wrong. Fortunately cataract operations rarely go badly enough to need an ICU so they will go ahead where surgeons are not redeployed to covid ICUs. But waiting lists have increased so people who are not the most urgent have to wait longer.

If the man prefers to be paid twice as much to do surgery it's his choice. The NHS doesnt have enough funding to pay for everyone.

OhTheRoses@ totally agree. However this is not new.

Thinking on the op a bit more, looking back I think that the a large contributor to the length of time we were locked down in spring was waiting to see what happened in Italy/Spain/France as they opened up.

Consultant friend at Hillingdon said it was all over the hospital in Feb, peaked in March and was pretty much over by May. Saw him yesterday and I think there are 4 people in ICU at the moment versus 50 at the peak.

@Delatron

Consultant friend at Hillingdon said it was all over the hospital in Feb, peaked in March and was pretty much over by May. Saw him yesterday and I think there are 4 people in ICU at the moment versus 50 at the peak.

Similar to my hospital. Peaked at Easter, the wards appropriated for Covid patients never filled up, with deployed staff bored. ITU tripled its beds but numbers of patients came down fast. I would say it was all done within a month. A lot of our services continued as usual just with less than half the staff due to deployment, shielded, self isolators (it took a while before we were allowed to test staff).

Of course the lockdown helped facilitate the hospital emptying as it slowed the spread. My question is why we then sat there for all those additional months. We should have run the hospital hot over the summer months.

@GoldenOmber

They said they’d review every 3 weeks. A lot of people clearly heard that as ‘it’ll only be for 3 weeks’ but that’s not what was said. I don’t think they gave any estimates of how long it’d last - feels like they had no idea.

This

@TrustTheGeneGenie I remember that as well You didnt imagine it.

@TrustTheGeneGenie

Boris absolutely did say we can turn this around in 12 weeks so let's not pretend that he ever once said oh you'll still be knee deep in this shit by Christmas. At one point he said social distancing would be over by November as well.

This is not the British public being shit for brains. This is the leader of the British public leading the British public down the fucking garden path.

He did say that. Although the CMO said in March we’d have SD for “at least most of a year “

"He did say that. Although the CMO said in March we’d have SD for “at least most of a year “*

He did but the cmo is not in charge, nor is he our elected pm.

Really, really nationally the hospitals were not cleared out after a month. Here’s my graph again.

www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/

I’ve done it sideways so you can see better, but it’s cases in hospital.

One hospital’s experience is not going to be the same in others. 1 area in London in May probably was not the same as another.

I’m guessing the thinking was to have capacity in case opening the economy up more caused a 2nd wave. This is not unreasonable. I think where they went wrong was their priorities.

They should have shut down borders and instituted borders for different regions (given that regions have markedly different rates). Ramped up testing. Then had clear criteria for how many cases there should be before different things restarted.

This would have allowed low infection areas to ramp up medical care and get the local economy and schools going. This current incomplete regional policy is like many things U.K. does (eg masks, quarantine for overseas travel, testing) - 1-3 months late.

@TrustTheGeneGenie

"He did say that. Although the CMO said in March we’d have SD for “at least most of a year “*

He did but the cmo is not in charge, nor is he our elected pm.

Yes I appreciate that. He still said it at the press conferences though so there was certainly more than Boris’s ravings out for public consumption