Why did the government lock down so long the first time?

[IheartNiles]

They’ve never bothered to explain this to the population. We were told 3 weeks in March. No one with any sense will trust that any future 2-3 week lockdown is going to finish on the date stated. If it’s enforced then an end date must be written into law.

The NHS (I work in a London hospital) was coping just fine by a month into the first lockdown - the wards had emptied and we were able to restart elective treatments. But for reasons unexplained to this day the government decided to extend locking down the country from 3 weeks to 4 months, with school children missing education for almost 6 months. It obviously wasn’t an elimination strategy as borders were kept open and then at the end people were encouraged to resume overseas travel.

If they’d stuck with occasional 2-3 week ‘circuit breakers’ at the beginning 1. The NHS would’ve coped 2. Business wouldn’t have gone under 3. We’d be closer to the talked about ‘herd immunity’ 4. year 10-13 education wouldn’t be fucked 5. people wouldn’t be utterly fucked off with it / terrified they’ll lose their jobs/home / mental health shot to pieces - and may have been more willing to comply.

@ResplendentAutumn

Q, how could they write a date into legislation, when for all we know, the virus could be worse than ever, about to explode with winter?

I am sure they don't want to totally shut us down, which is why there are supposed to be specific area lock downs.
But once again they have lost control and there is no test and trace back up.
I agree with the scientist who said short lock downs around school holidays. Keep us treading water until better weather and the break through!
I'm sure there will be a break through.... It's just buying time till that moment.

So you’re effectively consenting to another lockdown without an end date?

@ResplendentAutumn

"? No, it was definitely a hospital consultant.... And still is, we were then supposed to get a follow up shortly after and we have to wait another 2 months!

So as I explained, non dental work was halted due to lack of PPE. Also some staff were deployed to Covid efforts. But I agree dental work has taken far too long to resume.

Because their idiots.

So you’re effectively consenting to another lockdown without an end date

Eh? How did you get that? The poster was asking a valid question of how can we know the unknowable.

Review dates can and should be implemented but there’s no point in setting a date in legislation that requires abiding by no matter the circumstances when the deadline arrives. The option then is that a new date is legislated which just sets unrealistic expectations and antagonises the population whilst achieving exactly the same outcome.

@Cornettoninja

So you’re effectively consenting to another lockdown without an end date

Eh? How did you get that? The poster was asking a valid question of how can we know the unknowable.

Review dates can and should be implemented but there’s no point in setting a date in legislation that requires abiding by no matter the circumstances when the deadline arrives. The option then is that a new date is legislated which just sets unrealistic expectations and antagonises the population whilst achieving exactly the same outcome.

Your whole post confirms my assertion rather than the reverse

OP I agree with you. I still don’t know what the strategy is or what they think the end game is. I think the most scary thing is that the ministers involved don’t seem to have any clue about virology because a lot of them didn’t study science. We are now in a shitshow though because, as you say, it is surging back up again at the worst time of the year. Fingers crossed we do have some level of immunity now in London - I am sure we do because the kids are all still in school - in my area at least. I am positive this ran through a lot of us in March so I am hopeful we won’t have full hospitals down here. But I do worry about the northern cities because we locked down hard and long before it had worked through some of the population there and that has to be why it is surging now. Surely it would have been better to let it slowly spread over the summer and deal with it in a controlled manner. Yes I have no idea why Nicola Sturgeon thought it possible to eliminate a virus. Again that is a scary lack of science background. She is clearly backtracking now. A circuit breaker won’t work. It will just delay the inevitable again. What we are doing now is the only way. Run a selective control system. Turn the taps on and off. Keep our children in education. But yes OP we will look back I am sure and realise we locked down far too long at the beginning.

Qasd

If there is no herd immunity there is no effective vaccine as the body cannot develop effective response so even more reason to only do short lockdowns as they are the way of life for decades!....

Thank you! I've tried explaining this to so many people and they just don't get it!

Can I ask if you think there is some herd immunity?

@WhyNotMe40 evidence for this please?

@Bool

OP I agree with you. I still don’t know what the strategy is or what they think the end game is. I think the most scary thing is that the ministers involved don’t seem to have any clue about virology because a lot of them didn’t study science. We are now in a shitshow though because, as you say, it is surging back up again at the worst time of the year. Fingers crossed we do have some level of immunity now in London - I am sure we do because the kids are all still in school - in my area at least. I am positive this ran through a lot of us in March so I am hopeful we won’t have full hospitals down here. But I do worry about the northern cities because we locked down hard and long before it had worked through some of the population there and that has to be why it is surging now. Surely it would have been better to let it slowly spread over the summer and deal with it in a controlled manner. Yes I have no idea why Nicola Sturgeon thought it possible to eliminate a virus. Again that is a scary lack of science background. She is clearly backtracking now. A circuit breaker won’t work. It will just delay the inevitable again. What we are doing now is the only way. Run a selective control system. Turn the taps on and off. Keep our children in education. But yes OP we will look back I am sure and realise we locked down far too long at the beginning.

I agree with you, I was horrified when we stayed locked down over summer with borders open but no one getting the virus. It wasn’t one aim (herd immunity) or the other (elimination). They were incredibly stupid to hold opening things up until autumn. This is why I can’t take ‘following the science’ seriously. They (and their scientists!) clearly didn’t.

because their (sic) idiots

Best post all morning

Everyone saying kids missed six months of school needs to go back to school themselves, to learn how to add up!

Kids did not miss six months of school.

They wouldn’t normally be in school over Easter, half term, and the summer holidays, so at most they missed four months.

If you can’t even get that right you lose all credibility for the rest of your argument.

@doublehalo

Qasd

If there is no herd immunity there is no effective vaccine as the body cannot develop effective response so even more reason to only do short lockdowns as they are the way of life for decades!....

Thank you! I've tried explaining this to so many people and they just don't get it!

Can I ask if you think there is some herd immunity?

There will be short term immunity as people are not continuously infected with the same coronaviruses. As seen with this one and a vanishing number of reinefctions worldwide to date. The question is how long that immunity lasts for. This is the importance of a vaccine. Having said that once a functioning immune system has seen a virus and the host survived subsequent infections are likely to be less severe. I’d be more worried if this was the first SARS or MERS with similar contagion but although this is highly contagious it causes a much less severe illness for the majority of the population.

@YellowOrangeRed

Everyone saying kids missed six months of school needs to go back to school themselves, to learn how to add up!

Kids did not miss six months of school.

They wouldn’t normally be in school over Easter, half term, and the summer holidays, so at most they missed four months.

If you can’t even get that right you lose all credibility for the rest of your argument.

That was the length of time during which they received little to no education. Bearing in mind people froth over 6 week summer holidays causing reversal of knowledge gained for children (especially the underprivileged) your pedantic argument makes you look stupid.

@doublehalo herd immunity - indeed I struggle to understand when people say there is no herd immunity how they think a vaccine will work!

If there is no level herd immunity there is no vaccine. It’s basic.

I think that if you catch this coronavirus - you are unlikely to catch it again or if you do so your body will have some recognition and you will get it far less severely. I also think this is how a vaccine will work. Maybe we will have to have an annual programme as we do with the flu because of the annual mutation of the virus.

I think we are seeing some effects of herd immunity in London already honestly. I know of sooooo many people who have had Covid and are now just living unworried about catching it again.

Good post Qasd

I've found mumsnet generally to be lockdown obsessed. They love it.

What they don't realise is that last time, people were scared, so they complied.

This time, apart from those who are vulnerable, or those in secure jobs, no one wants it again. People are more scared of lockdown ruining their lives than they are the virus.

because they didnt "follow the science". If they had they would have opened up garden centres and outdoor things (National trust gardens, zoos) much sooner than they did. A 3 week lockdown was necessary - took us into warmer weather, allowed more to be learnt about the virus, allowed PPE to be acquired. At the end of that period they should have allowed more things outdoors.

Teachers unions didnt help - we should have had the school wave of infection in summer.

I hope everyone is taking their vitamin D supplements this winter.

@alreadytaken Teachers unions didnt help - we should have had the school wave of infection in summer.

Omg I agree. The kids should have been back in school. And now we have the worst situation where kids education is STILL getting affected by them being in and out of school when somebody gets a sniffle and tests positive. Again I am positive a lot of kids in London had this in March and is why their schools are getting less disrupted than those in other areas. And again that is going to cause more disparity between kids. It’s just not fair.

@YellowOrangeRed
Kids did not miss six months of school....they missed four months
Oh that's ok then

@Bool Thanks, I'm in London too. I got it back in March. and many others on my street were sick around that time too, some with the loss of smell and taste symptoms and some with the continous cough symptoms.

However, last week I was working in another part of London and my client said that two people on the her street had died and one was really sick with heart issues.

I'm thinking that there are several types of C19 out there and wondering if having had one type I have some immunity to the others?

@doublehalo but what were their ages and underlying conditions?

@IheartNiles no, you make yourself look stupid when you exaggerate to try and make a point. They missed four months, not six. I’m not saying I think it’s right they missed four months either (to respond to another poster).

Facts clearly aren’t your strong point are they?

@doublehalo ah well some of the people I know who got it got it very badly. My DH went to hospital to get checked out - thankfully didn’t get to his lungs. My business partner had struggle breathing but now fine again. I had a continuous cough for 3 months - a bit of irritation but nothing at all bad. So I do think it is the same thing but just affects everyone so differently.

[quote Tadpolesandfroglets]@doublehalo but what were their ages and underlying conditions?[/quote]
I don't know I'm afraid but there will be old sick people with underlying conditions living on every street in London- not scientific I know but common sense surely?

I don't know of anyone who has died with C19.

@Bool Sorry to hear that. I am trying to make sense of it all but maybe I have just been very lucky and should count my blessings

[quote YellowOrangeRed]@IheartNiles no, you make yourself look stupid when you exaggerate to try and make a point. They missed four months, not six. I’m not saying I think it’s right they missed four months either (to respond to another poster).

Facts clearly aren’t your strong point are they?[/quote]
at 'facts clearly aren't your strong point'

I think what pp was saying is that when people talk about children being out of school or missing school for 6 months, they're counting it as 'time since they were in school', not 'days they should have been in school but weren't.'

You might think - and clearly you do think - that this is a pointless way to measure it. But it doesn't seem inherently stupid to say that the length of continuous time without doing any learning has an effect, not just the days missed. 'Summer learning loss' is a thing even in normal years.