Even JVT is sounding positive about vaccine roll out....

[MarcelineMissouri]

It’s behind a paywall but you can read enough to get the gist!
www.thetimes.co.uk/article/hope-for-covid-vaccine-at-new-year-25b52b86s

I wonder if there will be peer pressure to have the vaccine? I for one will be unimpressed if I have the vaccine and we all have to keep SD because so many people won’t have it until everyone else has. I can’t see the government being delighted at it either.

All the people I know who fall into the vulnerable category have said they would not get the vaccination if it came as early as this year. I can't say I blame them.

The vulnerable people I know (elderly relatives and friends, friend with cystic fibrosis) have said they would be first in the queue! I don’t think they are going to have trouble finding people to have it.

@MiaMarshmallows

All the people I know who fall into the vulnerable category have said they would not get the vaccination if it came as early as this year. I can't say I blame them.

I would never mandate the vaccine, but what would your vulnerable friends do? Take their chances with the virus, shield or hope the country will continue restrictive measures?

@MiaMarshmallows

That's up to them of course but I don't think the wider population can be expected to maintain social distancing to protect them so what is their plan?

I suspect a lot of people who are worried are going to become less worried over the first few months of rollout as they see other people doing it- humans are very imitative creatures. And it’s going to take longer than that to get through everybody.

@TheCountessofFitzdotterel

The vulnerable people I know (elderly relatives and friends, friend with cystic fibrosis) have said they would be first in the queue! I don’t think they are going to have trouble finding people to have it.

Same here!

There is a good expert discussion on these issues (how quickly will there be a vaccine, how safe etc) on the podcast MPR news with Kerri Miller, from 5th October. It's Minnesota Public Radio and their coverage of this in terms of interviews with top people has been excellent.

@TheCountessofFitzdotterel

The vulnerable people I know (elderly relatives and friends, friend with cystic fibrosis) have said they would be first in the queue! I don’t think they are going to have trouble finding people to have it.

Yes, my DM has even said she will have it and she has been medically advised not to even get the flu jab! Obviously I would encourage/force her to get expert advice at the time.

@LemonTT

Well there are 6 vaccines in phase 3. The research has been done and most of the testing.

3-6 months is now a probability. But it’s not a magic bullet.

What is the magic bullet to get out of this ?

@Oaktree55

Testing will be the way out of this more than vaccines. It’ll become standard to have a rapid test along with showing passport at borders.

I think people over estimate what a vaccine will achieve particularly as take up won’t be high enough even if it was 90% effective not the 40/50% it’s likely to be.

How will testing bring us out of it though? It surely won't stop the disease spreading.

Just want to point out that the UK have signed up to a WHO program.

We can vaccinate the vulnerable but then we have to vaccinate the vulnerable around the entire planet before we are allowed to give it to the generable public in the UK.

I too have wondered if the vaccines will be available privately but I agree they won’t for a while. I’d personally like to choose which vaccine I have rather than just take the one dished out by nhs. There are different approaches being used for different vaccines, they’re not all the same.

@BlueBlancmange testing could stop the spread as they’ve shown in Asia. Of course there’ll always be cases that get through the net but they’re quickly stamped out. I do think testing at borders will be commonplace and eventually vaccination certificates for entry (I’m sure Asia will insist on this).

[quote Oaktree55]www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020/09/23/covid-19-vaccine-protocols-reveal-that-trials-are-designed-to-succeed/amp/?__twitter_impression=true[/quote]
So are we to understand the author of that article, William A Haseltine, is saying the vaccines won't stop disease transmission and they won't stop severe disease or death either. In fact they will only prevent mild illness?

Do you believe his view is objective and that he is a credible source? I don't know one way or the other, although looking him up he appears to have been pessimistic regarding vaccines from the off, and a rebuttal was written by The Jenner Institute against one of his pieces that he wrote in May criticising the progress of the Oxford vaccine.

www.jenner.ac.uk/about/news/the-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-works-very-well-in-monkeys

www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020/05/16/did-the-oxford-covid-vaccine-work-in-monkeys-not-really/#844d8f43c712

@BlueBlancmange I literally just grabbed that article off Twitter as someone requested more info re vaccine efficacy. I follow lots on Twitter and it’s a general theme that vaccine will be partially effective and as far as I’m aware hopefully prevent severe disease in many but not as far as I’m away prevent the vaccinated person being infectious.

As I said I’m just lay and reading up so not qualified to comment. I think Phase 3 are due in for a few vaccines Nov so I guess we’ll have to see what that shows.

I do think though it’ll be part of the armoury in tackling this not the magic answer.

[quote Oaktree55]@BlueBlancmange I literally just grabbed that article off Twitter as someone requested more info re vaccine efficacy. I follow lots on Twitter and it’s a general theme that vaccine will be partially effective and as far as I’m aware hopefully prevent severe disease in many but not as far as I’m away prevent the vaccinated person being infectious.

As I said I’m just lay and reading up so not qualified to comment. I think Phase 3 are due in for a few vaccines Nov so I guess we’ll have to see what that shows.

I do think though it’ll be part of the armoury in tackling this not the magic answer.[/quote]
Yes I agree the initial ones at least likely won't be a magic bullet, that has been made fairly clear. And I had already heard they probably won't prevent transmission, which is obviously disappointing. I hadn't heard that they are also unlikely to prevent serious disease and death though, but that is what the author appeared to be saying if I understood correctly. Which if true would kind of suggest they wouldn't be much use at all. Unless they prevent Long Covid and long-term damage which can result from mild disease. I have also wondered about that the other way round, if only severe disease is prevented but not mild disease, would Long Covid and long -term sequelae still occur.

I’m in a vulnerable group due to asthma, And I want my life back so given the choice between having the vaccine or taking my chances with COVID, I will be as close to the front of the queue as possible.

How will testing bring us out of it though? It surely won't stop the disease spreading.

If you can test frequently with very rapid results then you can get people into isolation much earlier in their disease then we are now and that will bring the R number right down.

As it stands we are testing far too few people, far too late, and tracing contacts late and unreliably. Which is why it's still spreading like wildfire

@jimmyhill

How will testing bring us out of it though? It surely won't stop the disease spreading.

If you can test frequently with very rapid results then you can get people into isolation much earlier in their disease then we are now and that will bring the R number right down.

As it stands we are testing far too few people, far too late, and tracing contacts late and unreliably. Which is why it's still spreading like wildfire

Yes, and we are also having to take all kinds of precautions on the basis that people might have it in any setting, whereas cheap, rapid accurate testing could establish when and where precautions are actually needed. It's a pipe dream to have instant result accurate tests available everywhere, all the time, but imagine if we did and it gives you an idea how much testing can help.

@Inkpaperstars

I agree if there was an instant test that we could all take every morning, this would make a huge difference. It would have to be reusable though surely.

Reusable, I hadn't really thought about that but yes if possible that would help!

They have said it isn't so much that they are against the vaccination as of course they want life back to normal but the speed of it concerns them. As I say, I don't blame them. If it is ready before Christmas that is extraordinarily quick especially taking into account how long other vaccines take to produce.

I'm not concerned at all about the speed, in the nicest way, I think it just means that people aren't aware of the usual process and why things are different with covid in terms of that process.

There are some brilliant webinars and podcasts from the Oxford team which are incredibly reassuring on the safety aspects.

To be honest even if speed is the concern, the outcome is the same. Once a vaccine is rolled out I think it highly likely that it will mean the end of social distancing in any meaningful way. People won't keep up social distancing to protect people who could benefit from the vaccine but have chosen not to (regardless of the rationale behind that).

This podcast with Sarah Gilbert is really interesting:

www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000mj18