Strange goings on with the flu numbers and other expected deaths this year - globally

[hamstersarse]

I have just come across these figures that have looked at flu cases this year and this is really strange, flu seems to have all but disappeared.

97.9% decrease of confirmed flu cases to WHO FluNet/GISRS from weeks 15 through 40 from 2019 to 2020. www.who.int/influenza/gisrs_laboratory/flunet/charts/en/

Last year, 119,737 confirmed flu cases (9.32% positive)
This year, 2,457 (0.18%)

And it doesn't seem to be anything to do with the level of testing:.
Last year: 1,285,346 tests through weeks 15-40
This year: 1,393,276 tests same weeks

What is going on here? Do viruses just compete to kill the most susceptible amongst us?

The figures above are worldwide so from WHO, but the situation is similar from ONS figures:

So far there are 31,441 missing deaths against the following cause this year for England.

Flu
Pneumonia
Alzheimias
Dementia
Prostate cancer

The above is based on extrapolation of latest deaths leading cause ONS August.
It's estimated that 75% of expected deaths have disappeared.

What is going on here? This gets more confusing as the days go on.

I’d say it’s a combination of more people getting flu shots and Covid measures being successful against flu (it would seem Covid is more contagious).

I know personally I haven’t been ill with a virus, even a cold, since February and it’s been winter where I live (Australia).

Apart from prostate cancer my guess is that covid stats are masking the other deaths .

The flu we get here in winter is the same flu that the southern hemisphere gets in their winter whilst our summer is in full flow. My guess is that the southern hemisphere has been in lockdown all of their winter and the flu hasn't had a chance to get going there, so there is not much of it about. Add to that the fact we are all mostly wearing masks and sanitising and not going out as much, I would think that flu hasn't got much of a chance, has it? I've had the jab this year for the first time and I'm not intending catching a cold or getting covid - ultra cautious about contact with others. I am sure I am not alone.

I'd be surprised if it had anything to do with flu shots. The flu vaccine is a gamble. It often isn't the right strain for the current year. They do it by guess work and I'm not sure it makes that much difference.

Correct me if I'm wrong anyone.

When testing was very poor, many flu deaths will have been attributed to covid. That's only part of the explanation though - it'll be interesting to see how flu for winter 2020 pans out.

nypost.com/2020/08/31/is-a-flu-shot-safe-amid-the-covid-19-pandemic/

Also, sorry to be blunt about it, but flu and covid are both dangerous for the same age group and if you've died of covid you can't catch flu. There will be many undetected cases of flu in the community not severe enough to trigger testing.

There was loads about how this year's (2019-2020) flu strain was much weaker than usual. Add to that lockdown halting any late spread.
What do you mean by "testing" for flu?

The southern hemisphere didn't have a flu season this winter (i.e. our summer). The social distancing measures in place to reduce covid transmission also work for flu.

DDad once had flu in July in Australia and then he caught it again in November in the UK. We thought having it once in Australia would have made him more resilient. The flu viruses do mutate, but it was a good example of how you can’t vaccinate against all flu in one year.

Flu has an R0 of about 1.3, covid has an R0 of about 3 meaning it is a lot more contagious. Also, the covid restrictions were actually based on what we know about influenza transmission since coronaviruses aren't as well studied so are doing a much better job of preventing influenza transmission than covid.

Why do you think it’s odd? Surely the same measures being used to reduce the transmission of Covid will work for flu (and even more efficiently as flu is less contagious than Covid?)

That's interesting. I remember reading something about how we get more flu and don't wash hands that much or something, in the past. I'll find it..

www.nhs.uk/news/heart-and-lungs/dirty-brits-are-worlds-worst-flu-spreaders/

A combination of measures against covid also working against flu plus covid being used as cause of death when other underlying issues such were also present.

That is from 2012

Probably because people aren't mixing the same and are handwashing so much.

We haven't had any bugs at all this year. And I'm usually one to pick up everything going.........quite embarrassing really. My filthy ways were obviously making me ill.

Many people who would have caught have already died of Covid

It’ll be a combo of the increased hygiene, working from home, sd & a lot of people who might have got flu died of covid in the spring.

A lot of us haven’t even managed to get flu jabs yet. I had mine two weeks ago and it was a battle to find one.

We had a mild winter last year as well.

Are you meaning those deaths have been put down as covid? (for the other conditions) as some of those are risks for death with covid?(dementia in particular) could well be the case..

As a teacher, I predicted that there would be very little flu this year (Not claiming any great science knowledge, or even that I'm proved right yet). A lot of people are appalled at the lack of social distancing in schools, however, what is in place I could/ can see having a huge impact on the spread of flu. Two things are totally transformational in primary schools now (and unlike Covid), primary aged children are known to be super spreaders of flu.

1. Children (and staff) washing their hands regularly. It's a huge pain and takes time out of lessons, which is why it's never been done on this scale before. Especially as you get to older primary age groups, they really could have gone all day with no handwashing- very very few schools / teachers ever actually checked or monitored it. Some schools had a policy of checking/ supervising handwashing before lunch, lots didn't.

2. The culture of not sending ill children into school is new. Parents would usually send kids in and hope they weren't called to collect them during the day. I know kids can technically still attend with cold/ flu symptoms that are non Covid symptoms, but there is very little tolerance for allowing an ill child to step foot into the classroom now. Add this to 180° turn around in the absolutely engrained pressure (even if just from themselves) teachers have to turn up however unwell they are feeling. Its usually less work to drag yourself in than it is to call in sick. Teachers and children staying off when ill will have had a massive impact in the spread of colds and flu.

Add to this that we've heard rumours about deaths being recorded as Covid when not even tested in the earlier days. Plus, the language of 'died WITH Covid' is also used a lot. The average time a person spends in a care home is just over a year, so maybe Covid often just got there first. Many of the people in care homes in Feb 2020 would have died by the end of the flu season in 2021 anyway. (Please don't take my tone as lack of empathy. I've lost very much loved elderly relative this year and obviously some people do live for many years in care homes).
Then add in all the other social distancing measures (masks, work from home, nightclubs closed, etc.) that will have slowed the sread of flu.

So overall, I'm actually surprised that anyone is surprised by those numbers!

@Orangeblossom7777

That is from 2012

What is?!?

Lockdown measures, social distancing, huge drop in travel likely to suppress influenza infections:
www.newscientist.com/article/2242113-australia-sees-huge-decrease-in-flu-cases-due-to-coronavirus-measures/

Well flu needs social contact to spread. Not that surprising.

What is?!?

www.nhs.uk/news/heart-and-lungs/dirty-brits-are-worlds-worst-flu-spreaders/

My link upthread