Strange goings on with the flu numbers and other expected deaths this year - globally

[hamstersarse]

I have just come across these figures that have looked at flu cases this year and this is really strange, flu seems to have all but disappeared.

97.9% decrease of confirmed flu cases to WHO FluNet/GISRS from weeks 15 through 40 from 2019 to 2020. www.who.int/influenza/gisrs_laboratory/flunet/charts/en/

Last year, 119,737 confirmed flu cases (9.32% positive)
This year, 2,457 (0.18%)

And it doesn't seem to be anything to do with the level of testing:.
Last year: 1,285,346 tests through weeks 15-40
This year: 1,393,276 tests same weeks

What is going on here? Do viruses just compete to kill the most susceptible amongst us?

The figures above are worldwide so from WHO, but the situation is similar from ONS figures:

So far there are 31,441 missing deaths against the following cause this year for England.

Flu
Pneumonia
Alzheimias
Dementia
Prostate cancer

The above is based on extrapolation of latest deaths leading cause ONS August.
It's estimated that 75% of expected deaths have disappeared.

What is going on here? This gets more confusing as the days go on.

Regarding the underlying conditions this might be of interest, today

www.theguardian.com/society/2020/oct/15/thirty-year-failure-to-tackle-preventable-disease-fuelling-global-covid-pandemic

Those likely to get these illnesses have already died of COVID after care home fiasco. Indeed back in March before testing I thought there were many excess dementia deaths which could well have been COVID. Found this
www.alzheimers.org.uk/news/2020-06-05/ons-report-shows-52-increase-excess-deaths-people-dying-dementia-alzheimers-society

Are you meaning those deaths have been put down as covid? (for the other conditions) as some of those are risks for death with covid?(dementia in particular) could well be the case

Actually excess dementia deaths have been reported and it had been suspected they were undiagnosed COVID
@Orangeblossom7777

@MrsFezziwig

Why do you think it’s odd? Surely the same measures being used to reduce the transmission of Covid will work for flu (and even more efficiently as flu is less contagious than Covid?)

I also think this is the most likely explanation

[quote Orangeblossom7777]Regarding the underlying conditions this might be of interest, today

www.theguardian.com/society/2020/oct/15/thirty-year-failure-to-tackle-preventable-disease-fuelling-global-covid-pandemic[/quote]
'The emergence of Covid-19 among so many people with chronic illnesses and underlying risks for disease has created “a perfect storm”, said the authors of the study, based in the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Seattle, in the US.
Horton said the study was “the most comprehensive analysis of the state of the world’s preparedness for Covid-19, immediately before the virus. It reveals that the world was acutely vulnerable to a virus that targets older citizens, those living with chronic non-communicable diseases, and those living in societies with pervasive inequalities'

Yes.

I read a post by a historian on here and she was saying at times in the past, covid would hardly have made an impact as would not have the same type of lifestyle related diseases and also people basically would not have liven so long into old age (most deaths with covid in over 80s)

Also, Africa for example has not had such a bad time with covid, - young population perhaps.

Anyway with regard the OP I mentioned this due to the last of illnesses mentioned.

Regarding dementia, it is meant to be strong risk factor for covid. Dementia is also linked with heart disease and stroke (vascular dementia) Frailty and nutrient deficiencies also common with dementia. It all looks together I suppose.

links

If its thought that measures taken to reduce the spread of Covid are also reducing the spread of flu, I think that's hugely positive. I'd like to see some of these measures continue in a typical flu season, even if the spread of Covid has hugely reduced.

These are the comparison graphs for the last 10 years.

Options:

• Social Distancing globally has worked - dramatically?
• Reporting on flu is not accurate this year (but then the testing numbers are the same)?
• Covid is taking the people who would have died of flu as more contagious?
• Other reasons?

Not just flu but also horrible winter vomiting bugs norovirus and the like. Would be nice to have less of them.

agradecida excellent and very interesting analysis of school transmission. I wonder whether the early September outburst of childhood sniffles ( and consequent surge in testing demand for covid) occurred before the handwashing regimes were fully embedded?
I hope the culture of sending sick children to school / teachers going in when ill is gone for good. Although DS is a teacher and always says it's far harder to stay home sick than it is to go to work because they seem to be expected to still prepare the work and give instructions to standins.

For the season 2019 / 2020, the amount of deaths due to flu were already lower.. in fact Europe did not see its usual winter excess death spike. You can see on the overall graphs here! that the spike is usually in January and back down by week 17 which is approximately when COVID deaths spiked. Europe did not have a flu spike in 2019 / 2020. No significant different in vaccine uptake.

The vaccine for 2020/2021 had only just begun to be administered and the flu season has not yet begun. It may well be that increased distancing, hand washing, staying at home when you have symptoms will affect the number of flu cases this winter but those changes all happened after the end of last years flu season and have not yet had a chance to influence this years figures.. all comments related to the Northern hemisphere.

it will be combination of factors.
yes, reduced contact may have reduced spread of eg flu, but I think this will only account for a small numer within the difference.
There will of course be poeple who may have died this year from say flu, who actually already sadly died form COVID (as would be some similar vulnerablities)
Also, I think a big part of it is down to reporting. The COVID numbers are actually those dying WITH covid, not necessarily FROM Covid.
So , for example, someone in hospital, very unwell with prostate cancer sadly passess away. He had had a Covid test in hospital and it had come back positive. His death will now be recorded a COVID death, whereas before it would have bene recorded as a prostate cancer death.

reduced contact may have reduced spread of eg flu
But only may have?
I'd have thought it was axiomatic that the covid distancing will have reduced the spread of flu and other airborne respiratory infections?

It's pretty much as @mosscarpet says.

Pre covid if you were seriously ill with or went to hospital with
Flu
Pneumonia
Alzheimias
Dementia
Prostate cancer

And then died, your cause of death would be listed as one of the above.

However if you were severely suffering from one of the above then your body and it's immune system is already weak plus given the above diseases it is also likely that you are old. As a result it is more likely you will catch covid. If you are then admitted to hospital or seeking medical help it is also highly likely you will get a covid test.

If positive and you die then the cause of death is covid which means one less death from the above list.

Or as @mosscarpet puts it more simply it is people dying with covid rather than from covid.

It's not just deaths that are down in the southern hemisphere, it's also cases of flu.

"In total, from January to the end of June 2019, more than 132,000 people were diagnosed with the flu.

This year, almost 21,000 people were diagnosed during the same period."

Why?

"The main reasons are due to social distancing, as influenza is spread just like COVID-19 is," Professor Barr said.

"And the closure of schools probably also has a big part in the transmission of the flu in a normal season."

The closure of Australian borders to international travellers also provided far fewer opportunities for people to bring the flu into the country from overseas.

Vaccination rates have also jumped, according to data from the federal health department, which showed from March to mid-July this year, 8.8 million doses of influenza vaccines were dispensed.

www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-23/coronavirus-restrictions-cause-flu-cases-to-drop-australia/12480190

So handwashing, physical distancing, border closures to international travellers, schools closed - all anti-Covid measures, ie; and a far greater uptake in flu shots.

I don't think the UK can expect such a massive drop in cases, though.

"It's interesting to compare deaths from COVID with the 5 year average for flu and pneumonia. It feels a stretch to suggest that COVID deaths are simply displaced flu/pneu deaths from earlier in the year looking at this comparison. "
mobile.twitter.com/john_actuary/status/1314144375103008773

Data from ONS: www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsduetocoronaviruscovid19comparedwithdeathsfrominfluenzaandpneumoniaenglandandwales/deathsoccurringbetween1januaryand31august2020

"Of all death occurrences between January and August 2020, there were 48,168 deaths due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) compared with 13,619 deaths due to pneumonia and 394 deaths due to influenza."
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsduetocoronaviruscovid19comparedwithdeathsfrominfluenzaandpneumoniaenglandandwales/deathsoccurringbetween1januaryand31august2020

Agree with @1dayatatime, positive cases are being counted whether it’s the sole reason for admission or death or that you’ve had a positive result but been admitted or died from something completely unrelated such as a road traffic accident.

Flu numbers are also being rolled into covid counts dependent on location.

No, that's not correct.

Again, from the ONS:

"The doctor certifying a death can list all causes in the chain of events that led to the death and pre-existing conditions that may have contributed to the death. Using this information, we determine an underlying cause of death. More information on this process can be found in our user guide. In the majority of cases (46,736 deaths, 92.8%) where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate, it was found to be the underlying cause of death."
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19englandandwales/deathsoccurringinjune2020

Flu numbers are also being rolled into covid counts dependent on location.

On one line of a report yes but still a separate figure too for UK.

Except excess dementia deaths were higher at the start of tbe pandemic when testing wasn't happening in the community and people in care homes were left to get on with it.

Basically social distancing in the Southern Hemisphere and lack of air travel from south hemisphere to north.

Social distancing, increased hygiene. It's automatically going to also decrease the numbers of any other viral illness you can catch.