Trigger for move from tier 1 to 2

[PuzzledObserver]

While this was being trailed in the media, BBC reported that 100 cases per 100K would be the trigger for moving from tier 1 to tier 2. My area surpassed that at the beginning of this week, and we are now over 120 case/100K. Just 3 weeks ago, it was 28.

So it's not as simple then as the infection rate....

Yes we’re 126 in S.Bucks but not on watch list.

Didn’t Andy Burnham say they’d been told it’s the infection rate amongst over 60s that they’re actually using?

What matters is what the Govt say the triggers are and not what the media say. Newspapers and TV are full of speculation. They don't seem to know what constitutes 'news' anymore.

Perhaps to help with that the government could publish clear information on what the triggers are? Then we wouldn’t have to wait until they release a hint to their mates at the Times and try and work it out.

@ColonSemiColon

Didn’t Andy Burnham say they’d been told it’s the infection rate amongst over 60s that they’re actually using?

I hadn't heard that, but it would make sense (for a change)

Mind you, the difference between tier 1 and tier 2, so far as I can see, is purely that you can't mix households indoors... which we weren't doing anyway socially since all family live some distance away. And most of them are under stricter restrictions, so they are not supposed to come here, or allow us into their houses.

I think it’s partially political and not based on clear cut-offs such as infection rates and rate of increase in the public or over 60s ( or if it is they are not being explicit about it). I think they said at some point it won’t be based on these sorts of figures alone.

I thought it was a mix of numbers and hospital capacity

And I hope it's PHE who is advising on when trip wires are hit, even if local and national governments then despcide on what is done.

what should also be made clearer is what is the cut off for being moved down the list. If people know how close they are to losing restrictions/regaining freedoms they may be more likely to comply.

I watched something that said it was a mix of things. Infection rates, prevalence of outbreaks in universities, hospital capacity.

Puzzled I live in a similar area and was surprised. Much of london is less!

Tne whole policy if half leaking info and then some of it being wrong is so infuriating.

I did wonder if it was hospital capacity?

Well the trigger in Essex seemed to be the actual county council.

@Egghead68

I think it’s partially political and not based on clear cut-offs such as infection rates and rate of increase in the public or over 60s ( or if it is they are not being explicit about it). I think they said at some point it won’t be based on these sorts of figures alone.

Definitely political in Essex. Even our councillors don't seem to realise that we are a very diverse county. Yes there are the towns like Basildon and Clacton, but more of us are rural. Even within Tendring there is a massive difference between the main towns than the rest of us. Not surprised that our existence has been ignored though, after all we have irregular and infrequent buses, while the towns have regular and frequent buses

In Essex the councillors went begging to central government asking to be put in tier 2. The number mean fuck all

London borough at 70, we're in T2 anyway

We’re 397, but not on the watchlist and still tier 1. Apparently this is because infections are mainly with the student population, but numbers in the community are definitely increasing.

It’s the make up of the outbreaks alongside the raw infection numbers. So for example where the rate is high, but mostly contained in a university or workplace that’s less likely to trigger a move than places where there’s high, and rising, community spread.

I know for Barrow, which moves up to Tier 2 tonight, Cumbria County Council requested tighter restrictions.

Fully expecting they will for Carlisle too soon, the rise in figures is similar here to Barrow and there appears to be the same concern from the authorities regarding community spread. However we haven't recorded as high a number of recent deaths as they sadly have down there. Perhaps hospitalisations and capacity aren't yet as critical at the Cumberland Infirmary as at Furness General.

Yes, here in SW Bristol and Bath both well over 100 but in tier 1. Students though perhaps

@Whatever9999 this happened to us in Lancashire. We’re in a tiny village with one shop, no pubs, one chippy and 2 hourly buses and we got lumped in to the whole of Lancashire. When we were put into what is now tier 2 (except it was stricter as there was no mixing in gardens), we had 48 cases per 100000. Lancaster was even lower on I think 34. Now areas with over 300 per 100000 are not even being considered for tier 2 and yet we are at 208 and are going into tier 3 tonight. How does that work?

The restrictions clearly aren’t working either as our cases have gone up and up. I think Lancashire acted far too early and made people angry and therefore take it less seriously.

We have 260 cases per hundred thousand here, but still in Tier 1. Am assuming that this is because it's mainly in the student population right now, but it isn't very clear.

It makes sense it may be councils asking. Here (SW) ours is saying look to burden of disease not just cases. That sort of thing. And that is mainly students. And they have this action plan in places with the unis, hospital and counsel going on. They say we 'should be OK' despite rise in cases, mentioning things like low population density, overall health, rural location etc. But things may change if it continues I suppose.

My relatives on the other hand are in Northumberland and Rural Scotland (Forth valley area though) so both those have got stronger measures than here but half the cases (at least) locally. They just got put in with Newcastle and Central Scotland.

If they give more financial support for Tier 2 wonder how much that will change things. Maybe more will be looking to move..

The area where ds goes to college next to where I live are avoiding going into Tier 2 for the moment at lest, purely because a lot of the cases are associated with the local university which is a campus university away from the main town.

@Papyrus

We’re 397, but not on the watchlist and still tier 1. Apparently this is because infections are mainly with the student population, but numbers in the community are definitely increasing.

Wow. This has made me feel even more cross with this absurd situation in Essex. My area is 47, yet we're in Tier 2. Ridiculous.