Two week circuit breaker - who's in favour?

[zafferana]

Keir Starmer is in favour - so are you?

If they did it over the next two weeks I actually wouldn't mind that much, as it's half term.

Professor Keeling told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme this morning: 'I really, really wish I hadn't put these numbers in the paper because they were there for illustration.

I heard this - though reading the article linked it hasn't been peer reviewed either yet which I didn't hear this morning.

I'd support it if it worked but it hasn't. Greater Manchester has had just 11 days out of lockdown since 23/03. It's looking like tier 3 is imminent. The local economy is tanking and even the most mentally & physically robust people are suffering. I'm not blaming the government or any

Does anybody here know anything about contact tracing?

I read somewhere that "back-tracing" rather than forward tracing would help to get T&T system functional.

I would be interested to know if this could work.

@AlecTrevelyan006

Academic behind startling 'circuit breaker' study which found half-term lockdown could save up to 100,000 lives by New Year admit their death figures are wildly over-estimated and say they wish they'd never used them

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8838727/Academics-circuit-breaker-study-admit-death-figures-estimated.html

Professor Keeling told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme this morning: 'I really, really wish I hadn't put these numbers in the paper because they were there for illustration.

'We looked at a range of different scenarios from a relatively low growth rate going forward where we might reduce deaths by a third between now and new year to some extreme scenarios, which I think are the ones that have been quoted in the papers, which really were 'what happens if we don't do anything?' between now and the new year.'

Well "doing nothing" is exactly what the undisciplined, lazy negative whining covid-deniers propose so - although it's not an option in the real world where we're not all sociopaths and some of us understand cause and effect - it's useful to see some numbers on it.

Or anyone else for the debacle but we need to realise that this ongoing paralysis isn't benefitting anyone. Some people will continue to break the rules ( I'm looking at the party animals and the ant-vax brigade here) but they shouldn't be allowed to compromise everyone's else's safety and well being

Well "doing nothing" is exactly what the undisciplined, lazy negative whining covid-deniers propose so - although it's not an option in the real world where we're not all sociopaths and some of us understand cause and effect - it's useful to see some numbers on it.

You do realise it’s possible to disagree with a lockdown and not be a Covid denier don’t you?

I am in favour of this as long as affected industries and workers are properly supported. It isn't an option to keep putting our heads in the sand. Numbers of cases are out of control and the tier system is pointless. It mostly mirrors the northern lockdowns that have achieved little to nothing over the past few months. A circuit break is inevitable but the government will drag their heels for the next few days to avoid the embarrassment of admitting they got it wrong (again).

@PinkSparklyPussyCat

Well "doing nothing" is exactly what the undisciplined, lazy negative whining covid-deniers propose so - although it's not an option in the real world where we're not all sociopaths and some of us understand cause and effect - it's useful to see some numbers on it.

You do realise it’s possible to disagree with a lockdown and not be a Covid denier don’t you?

I agree. I am very VERY aware of covid and its dangers. That doesnt mean I will agree with everything grinding to a complete halt as part of a short sighted attempt to keep certain sections of the population happy. There has been NO evidence that a lockdown will fix this, or that it will 'save' lives as opposed to simply postponing the inevitable. Its an extremely complicated situation which involved balancing public health with the economy that funds that public health. Thinking of more than just 'covid covid covid' doesnt make me a denier.

We are not doing ‘nothing’ though. And there’s plenty of things we could be implementing that don’t involve ‘lockdown’:

www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2020/04/62572/

This thread is also interesting as has collated some studies into why lockdowns have not had demonstrable effects on the virus
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1298633080773709825.html

@PinkSparklyPussyCat

Well "doing nothing" is exactly what the undisciplined, lazy negative whining covid-deniers propose so - although it's not an option in the real world where we're not all sociopaths and some of us understand cause and effect - it's useful to see some numbers on it.

You do realise it’s possible to disagree with a lockdown and not be a Covid denier don’t you?

Yes.

I'm against Lockdowns.

I'm "for" having an adequate Covid strategy that means you don't need Lockdowns to put the brakes on the spread.

But we don't have one.

We've spent eye-watering sums on a sort of performance art version of one.

Which makes Lockdowns inevitable.

And if you have to have them, which we do, then earlier is far more effective and can be shorter than later.

If you let it spread freely for three months like we did earlier in the year then it builds up so much momentum it takes a long time for the brakes to work.

You can't just not have a lockdown because problems don't go away when you ignore them.

Exponential problems just keep on doubling.
^
Currently it's doubling about every nine days. And 90% of us are still susceptible so there's no reason to suggest it will stop doubling any time soon.^

I wonder if they're actually going to do it.

I (selfishly) just desperately hope I can be with my mum at Christmas. I haven't seen her since March .

@SqidgeBum

There is no sustainable path to reviving consumer spending, safely putting people back to work and resuming normal life as we know it until the virus can be contained.

And without a functional Test and Trace system, it can’t.

Whatever you want, whatever you care about, getting the virus down to safe levels is the answer.

Absent TTI, Lockdown is all we've got.

No more lockdowns. Please!

Two weeks is not long enough so see the effects of the two week period. Four weeks will be catastrophic to the economy which will, in turn, be catastrophic to the NHS, to people’s health and to our long-term recovery.

As other have said, there are far more essential workers than just hospitals and supermarkets so no, it will not be possible to lock everything down. A lot of people have to go out and work.
If schools stay open, there will be no point as the virus will continue to spread anyway. If schools close lots of businesses will be on their knees due to lack of childcare – including essential businesses.

Lots of posts here calling for universities to be closed. What do you mean by this? Do you not want pioneering scientists and researchers to continue working on treatments and vaccines for covid as well as a massive range of other scientific, health and societal benefits? Or do you just mean that teaching should be online only, which means that the next generation of doctors, scientists and other students studying practical subjects just won’t get taught and their degrees will be worthless? Or do you want halls of residence to close and students go back home to study online from their bedrooms, which still doesn’t allow those doing practical subjects to learn their craft and also removes library access from humanities/social science students so they will be unable to meet all learning requirements. Perhaps then universities should just shut up shop for the year so that no students are disadvantaged and they can restart their degrees next year? But what about next year’s cohort who then don’t get places and that’s assuming the Universities in question still exist with a year of no income. Certainly those who would make it through this situation would have slashed all student services and facilities in order to survive, plus all that research would fall away with no subsidy. And that's before we even start to consider the hundreds of thousands of staff employed in the sector. Looks like those pesky universities might be essential after all?

@Beebityboo

I wonder if they're actually going to do it.

I (selfishly) just desperately hope I can be with my mum at Christmas. I haven't seen her since March .

There’s absolutely nothing selfish about wanting to be with the people you love.

I'm not sure. I wouldn't be happy with the idea of a hard lockdown in areas where the virus is quite low at the moment . I think we need to keep business open in areas where it's possible to do so.

I would be in agreement with tightening up current measures though Maybe change the rule of 6 to two households , and probably more areas need to be placed into the higher tier .

I am surprised that there seems so much support for the two week lockdown when areas currently threatened with the higher tier lockdowns are protesting so much.

People are talking about test / track and trace but I think the fact that people are refusing to isolate or giving false details is a real problem . It needs a combination of proper financial support for people isolating , legal enforcement and an environment where it is absolutely socially unacceptable to not isolate when told.

Really not sure what the answer is regarding schools and universities though. Possibly having all uni lectures on line, thus allowing students to return home if they chose to do so. And must isolate at their parents home for two weeks if they do return . I don't like the idea of completely stopping young people having anything like a normal life , so the return home would be optional . And I would support part time schooling where this is feasible, but am aware of how difficult colleagues are finding the short term bubble isolations and children being sent home .

Fuck no.

I am surprised that there seems so much support for the two week lockdown when areas currently threatened with the higher tier lockdowns are protesting so much.

Human nature.

If you are in a low cases area then from your perspective it is fairer to not make you lockdown until your cases go up.

If you are in one of the areas being singled out you will think it is unfair that your personal freedom/ social life/business has to suffer but other areas (whose numbers are going up, just slower than yours) aren’t.

Even if logical, this ‘one rule for us, another for them’ will probably mean minimum compliance, at least until every area is under the same measures.

Yes, but I think it would have to be longer than 2 weeks, possibly 4 weeks

If you are in one of the areas being singled out you will think it is unfair that your personal freedom/ social life/business has to suffer but other areas (whose numbers are going up, just slower than yours) aren’t.

I'm in a tier 2 area with 317/100k cases and I'm free, along with now millions of others who have the same infection rate, to go on holiday during the October break - albeit with mixing restrictions. If I were worried about things not being fair because of the uneven spread of covid then I think that that will be an issue to soon address itself.

I can see all sides to these arguments and I've always argued that we need an economy to work well to run the NHS and our schools etc etc but Starmer doing a u turn here has surprised me.
I'm not a fan of the Conservative at all but it's been the only time EVER I had to give a bit of a nod to Boris when he said to him ' what's changed? ' it feels as if his only just started to read the sage reports and they have been around for weeks now. It does feel an opportunist moment and he knows it'll only screw the economy even more too.
It's lives v the economy and an impossible situation, but they should be trying to work together not all these arguments and posturing and division. I'm shocked that a poll shows people supporting this ' mini lockdown ' really as they are not around here! That was an LBC one though.
I know mumsnetters are generally for another shut down , but I can't see it working really and the effects to the economy is also very worrying.
Starmer hasn't thought this through.
Boris Johnson knows he can't u turn again. It's a disaster in my book and I hope the tier system works or at least give it a go first.

I’m in central Scotland we have restrictions greater than Tier 3 just now, it’s the October holidays my FB is full of photos of people on holiday all over Scotland, northern England, Southern England and Wales cos Nicola told them they could still go on holiday, one family went to an island with zero cases another booked a last minute B&B in a Covid free area. Next week all the children will be back at school freely mixing again, don’t think shutting pubs for 16 days will do anything!

Some really interesting data on those links, @Ohthatsgreat

@The80sweregreat The SAGE report with the circuit breaker recommendation was only released to the public on Monday evening, hence it hasn't been around "for weeks"

Not in favour because I don't think 2 weeks will achieve anything.

I would be in favour of other measures to prevent the spread.

E.g. Work from home as the default, and only if you can't should you travel to work.
More enforcement of isolation for positive cases and their close contacts.
More inspections to make essential workplaces safer (helpful at first, then enforcement), e.g. ventilation functioning effectively (grants to check/upgrade), work spaces best positioned to reduce risk.
Effective app
Effective track and trace
Quick turnaround of tests

Can somebody explain to me what Andy Burnham wants? Fewer restrictions on Manchester but a circuit breaker for the whole country? When it’s places like Manchester that have higher rates? I am so confused.