Why Track and Trace cannot possibly work

[starfro]

The first lockdown was sold as both preventing NHS overload, and then getting virus levels down so that a T&T system could be put in place which would allow restrictions to be slowly lifted.

What actually happened is that a T&T system was never really effective, and the slow lifting of restrictions (combined with the end of summer) eventually resulted in R>1, especially in places that had low immunity levels (the North).

It's clear now that T&T doesn't really have any effect. Is this due to Government incompetence? The answer when looking around Europe is no, because every single other country has tried the exact same thing and pretty much all have failed to prevent cases rising using their T&T system. Some like the Czech Rep (that were lauded as models of how to fight Covid) celebrated "beating the virus" in July using a contract tracing app are now being overwhelmed.

Track and trace has only really worked in places that had few cases and had a system already in place right at the start. T&T is basically impossible once a virus is widespread in the population. The asymptomatic nature of the virus also makes it many times harder to trace.

Also, there is the problem of truthfulness. Most people would admit to a tracer about going to a supermarket, but not an illicit dinner party of 8 people.

So that leaves the Government with the option of locking down for the next 6-9 months and praying for a vaccine, or keeping virus levels roughly where they are with slightly fewer restrictions and building immunity.

Its never going to eliminate it. Asymptomatic transmission is part of the problem. Then you need the honesty of the person providing the info. Then full compliance from those who are asked to isolate. It will definitely help with the rate of spread though.

Track and trace would only work with a proper database (not a fucking excel sheet) AND proper access to rapid testing. That last part never happened. It's all a shambles.

yes, we needed to get in early. I agree that countries who started early did best.

I think though that an effective track and trace is really important to develop and backward tracing is needed for it to work.

We can't just keep virus levels "roughly where they are" as R is over 1 and will inevitably rise over winter.

We need to fund business (making jobs) directed at making society safer and distanced so that it can keep going, I think. We need people to be making visors, screens, masks PPE etc. We need delivery and logistics companies. We need as much as possible to be outdoor. We need more space for schools, that could mean jobs for someone.

And we need a communal commitment to keeping everyone safe to get through this. That means making sure people have enough to eat as well as avoiding everyone vulnerable getting killed off. And getting young people an education, but as safely. as possible.

Most of all we need to follow the science to avoid further spread (Can someone give test and trace to a scientist to run please)

I don't see anywhere that has managed to implement T&T and use it successfully using the original target of it allowing meaningful restrictions to be lifted.

I don't think it matters who runs it, it's just not a viable system.

Interestingly the WHO advises against contract tracing during a severe influenza Pandemic.

@starfro
I wouldn’t hold your breath for an effective vaccine.
They still haven’t sorted flu out yet but we learnt to live with it.
It took 184 years to eliminate smallpox.
We never locked down the world over that.

I don't think it can work either. I'm in a group of friends, and two of them have deleted the app because they don't want to be contacted and told to isolate, and another has had a notification telling her to isolate but she doesn't believe she's been in contact with anyone for long enough (no pubs, restaurants, she WFH etc) so she's ignored it.

Where I live, we're in tier 3 lockdown supposedly, yet our neighbours to the left constantly have visitors, the other side of us had people round for drinks at the weekend (breaking the rule of 6 never mind tier 3 rules), groups of teens are in town at in the parks, I'm seeing pics on social media of people just living their lives normally .. this isn't going to work, because people are ignoring the restrictions, but then you've got people like me who HAVE TO play by the rules due to severe anxiety (and of course the fact that you SHOULD play by them!) and it feels like my life is on hold again while everyone else is just living as normal pretty much.

People give false details and judging by responses given on MN, they don't want to live in a big brother type society.

It's no wonder that T&T doesn't work.

It would work if they had well trained, local teams of track and trace staff who knew their patch.

Proper local support for people isolating, with volunteer organisations bringing them shopping if friends couldn't, financial and legal support if they can't work from home. Enforcement marshalls who knock on doors to check people are actually there. Government funded residential places for those who can't or won't isolate at home, or need to isolate separately from vulnerable household members.

More testing available so we can capture those with non-classical symptoms.

Use restrictions and lockdowns to keep transmissions low enough that track and trace can be effective. Continually learn and improve the track and trace system so we can have fewer lockdowns.

@starfro

I don't see anywhere that has managed to implement T&T and use it successfully using the original target of it allowing meaningful restrictions to be lifted.

I don't think it matters who runs it, it's just not a viable system.

Interestingly the WHO advises against contract tracing during a severe influenza Pandemic.

New Zealand? Hong Kong? China? Vietnam? There are loads of countries that are succeeding.

The issue is that an app telling you to isolate or get tested is just that, an app, people don't have to listen to it, and not always through being selfish, but because there isn't the support in place to help with the loss of earnings from 2 weeks off work, or with the mental toll. If unis are anything to go by asymptomatic carriers are actually the bigger issue as they obviously don't know they have it, don't isolate as they don't have symptoms, but can still pass it on (we think). One uni tests a certain % at random and has found loads of positive cases, none with any symptoms at all- although easier to pass on in halls etc, this is probably the case to a lesser extent everywhere. The rules are also not abundantly clear, lots don't know who has to isolate in which scenario.

I think people don't trust test and trace because

• it was handed to a crony with not much experience in healthcare

• this crony was involved in a data leak scandal before as it happens and

• there is a lot of suspicion about signing up to an app that will have a lot of your data!

If we were able to trust in the integrity and ability of the people running it, and could believe this could be an efficient process run to a high standard, it would help.

However, we are now a couple of months of mismanagement into a mess of rising case numbers, and I would agree with the government scientists that at this point test and trace alone won't get the numbers down.

I am thinking that trying to put the structure of an efficient system in place would be very important for when numbers might next fall.

Remember back in February when WHO said test, test, test was the key to licking this. Johnson was missing COBRA meetings and having extended holidays.

It could only work if everyone was 100% on board, and they are not. There could be the best track and trace in the world, but if a sizeable number of people refuse to comply, then it’s useless.

DH was in contact with a work colleague who had been out with friends at the weekend and one of the had tested positive. He was only working with her for one day which typically was the day she found out, so she had a test and tested positive. DH had already begun to self isolate from the day he worked with her as he didn’t want to put colleagues at risk, he can WFH and he had no reason to go out anyway other than work. The colleague tested positive on the Wednesday and put his (and others I presume) details into the app. He wasn’t then contacted until the following Thursday. If the colleague hadn’t been honest and told him about it (she was a symptomatic) he could have been wondering around for over a week passing it on to others. As it happened, he tested negative anyway but that’s not the point!

Isn't Germany still doing well

As well as countries like New Zealand ?

So it can work as an approach

@IrmaFayLear

It could only work if everyone was 100% on board, and they are not. There could be the best track and trace in the world, but if a sizeable number of people refuse to comply, then it’s useless.

I think that's the wrong way round.

I think people have sacrificed a huge amount and been let down again and again.

We need a really good Test and Trace. We also need inspiring leadership at this very difficult time.

It's a big fail on both counts.

@Thinkingg

It would work if they had well trained, local teams of track and trace staff who knew their patch.

Proper local support for people isolating, with volunteer organisations bringing them shopping if friends couldn't, financial and legal support if they can't work from home. Enforcement marshalls who knock on doors to check people are actually there. Government funded residential places for those who can't or won't isolate at home, or need to isolate separately from vulnerable household members.

More testing available so we can capture those with non-classical symptoms.

Use restrictions and lockdowns to keep transmissions low enough that track and trace can be effective. Continually learn and improve the track and trace system so we can have fewer lockdowns.

I agree.

The biggest thing is that there is no trust in the integrity of the government. If from the start they had formed a cross party group to deal with everything, much as was done during the war. Confidence & trust was lost with Dominic Cummings as well as the promises of a world beating track, test & trace system, the government have continually let everyone down. Handing out jobs to party supporters hasn't helped either. There should have been a properly funded department run by the NHS, not private companies who have no experience of a global pandemic.

Testing and results turnaround is too slow. My DD has to self isolate for 4 days following a positive close contact at school who only just got test results back. My DD last sat near her 11 days ago and has been many other places since. If shes covid + too, she'd potentially have infected many others.

They paid a lot for it. Hopefully they could claw some back!

"It would work if they had well trained, local teams of track and trace staff who knew their patch."

Yes and there is evidence for that:
www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/cumbrias-ace-test-and-tracers-put-whitehall-officials-to-shame-pnzt5brdb

Adequate Test and Trace is why South Koreans still go clubbing.

Korea were spooked by MERS, that’s why. As the OP said, they were one of the countries in the starting blocks already pre Covid-19

The vaccine is not that far off.

Maybe if ppl could be honest and follow the rules we could keep things bearable.

The op stated doesnt work once already high bumbers
Nz never had high numbers some of other countries have very big brother approaches to track and trace that wouldn't be accepted here
Numbers need to be down for and track and trace to work
Also every country is very different in lots of ways size , population density , compliance and many other things
People herd are too worried the goverment may have their details and know they have gone to tesco