Why Track and Trace cannot possibly work

[starfro]

The first lockdown was sold as both preventing NHS overload, and then getting virus levels down so that a T&T system could be put in place which would allow restrictions to be slowly lifted.

What actually happened is that a T&T system was never really effective, and the slow lifting of restrictions (combined with the end of summer) eventually resulted in R>1, especially in places that had low immunity levels (the North).

It's clear now that T&T doesn't really have any effect. Is this due to Government incompetence? The answer when looking around Europe is no, because every single other country has tried the exact same thing and pretty much all have failed to prevent cases rising using their T&T system. Some like the Czech Rep (that were lauded as models of how to fight Covid) celebrated "beating the virus" in July using a contract tracing app are now being overwhelmed.

Track and trace has only really worked in places that had few cases and had a system already in place right at the start. T&T is basically impossible once a virus is widespread in the population. The asymptomatic nature of the virus also makes it many times harder to trace.

Also, there is the problem of truthfulness. Most people would admit to a tracer about going to a supermarket, but not an illicit dinner party of 8 people.

So that leaves the Government with the option of locking down for the next 6-9 months and praying for a vaccine, or keeping virus levels roughly where they are with slightly fewer restrictions and building immunity.

@MummyPop00

Korea were spooked by MERS, that’s why. As the OP said, they were one of the countries in the starting blocks already pre Covid-19

We've had 8 months. When do we get to our starting blocks?

Germany & Italy are controlling fairly well, I thought.

Clubbing is still a problem in SK.

"As well as countries like New Zealand ?"

New Zealand is because they closed their border.
Cases are on the up in Germany, though less than some other European countries.

"We've had 8 months. When do we get to our starting blocks?"

I think maybe you need to be able to deal with it from the beginning. If we'd had track and trace when people first arrived from their skiing holidays, we could have stopped it in its tracks. Too late now it's everywhere.

"Korea were spooked by MERS, that’s why."

SARS 1 you mean? That's why they had everything set up.
However, the government here had been warned to have PPE etc. in case something like this happened as well, but they ignored it as did previous governments...

Track and Trace probably needs to track backwards as well, if we could get quick reliable antibody testing and there isn't a known positive source of a "new" infection.

Also test all contacts at fixed points after contact with person with positive test to pick up prevalence of asymptomatic transmission.

Basically we need more test capacity and probably more comprehensive track and trace.

If track and trace was working well we could focus manpower on tracking "mystery" cases backwards and really pin down sources of transmission. However this needed to happen while cases were low over the summer (or were they simply asymptomatic??)

Would be good to test the majority (all who consent) of people in a couple of lockdown areas of Wales and really pick up all the cases, have a proper idea of prevalence, probably 1 rural one urban to start with.

Am well aware this is pie in the sky, bit more realistic than the moonshot though!

How is track and trace going to work when large swathes of the public sector - police, teachers (of which I am one ) and I believe nhs and care staff (although happy to be corrected on this one ) are being told not to download the app, and schools being told not to report cases.
May as well not bother at all if we're being told we can't participate fully and can't report.

I agree it’s very hard to use it once out of the very early stages

NZ had so few cases on lockdown 102 which allowed contact tracers to get all cases including asymptomatic

Germany do seem to be doing quite well

Japan did well

Backwards tracing seems to be a thing with tracing super spreader clusters

Good access and quick turnaround for tests would help things a lot I believe. The less people's lives are likely to be disrupted the more likely they will be to comply. It's the isolating unnecessarily, whole family's life disrupted, inability to get tested, waiting ages for results if you do get tested the only to find out they are negative. This is the problem.