Why can't we just have a full lockdown for 2/4 weeks and get it over and done with?

[Betty94]

Hello,

First I'd like to say I have been incredibly lucky and fortunate enough not to have had covid or have had any of my friends or family affected by it (apart from DH being made redundant) but I know how serious it is and the illness itself is devastating but I also feel the impact it's having on the economy and mental health is equally as devastating and it really does feel like we're living half a life -

I know the priminister is making an announcement tonight about going into "tier 3" which means pubs and gyms will be closed for 4 weeks (to six months) but I don't understand the point of it - what's the point of closing pubs and gyms but letting people mix at schools and work etc like you can't even meet with your own family (or you'll get accused of killing grandma) but mixing with people when you don't know where they've been and children mixing, you can't really expect kids to know to social distance or for teenagers to even care, they don't think about consequences ( I don't think I would have cared as a teenager as they tend to live in there here and now)

I just don't understand why we can't go in a full lockdown for 2-4 weeks, I understand the cost of that wouldn't be brilliant but people can still work from home and they can keep essential shops open like supermarkets so they wouldn't be paying as much as they did in March-June etc because surely if it carries on as it is then it's going to cost more in the long run (apparently tier 3 could last for six months but the virus won't be gone then)

Maybe I'm just being naive and stupid but I really don't see any other option - not going to the pub or the gym will not slow the virus down - I don't know what do people think would need doing so we can have some normality ? I know our opinions don't really matter and the government will do whatever they want really but I just wondered what other people thought

What do you think will be over and done with?

I understand the cost of that wouldn't be brilliant but people can still work from home and they can keep essential shops open like supermarkets

Did the lockdown in March work in 2-4 weeks? If not, why would you think that repeating the same measures again would?

My understanding is that a two-week lockdown would only work if you broke all transmission chains entirely, and that's not possible - people who needed care would die, there would be no food.

I partly agree. I don’t think it would be over and done with but it would hopefully certainly slow the cases.
Also people would be much more complicit I think if they felt there was an end date to it. Especially teens.
They are just finding this whole being able to mix at school but not out of school really hard.

I agree. Short full lockdown to bring cases down.

I live in a ‘red’ area. It needs something severe to stop the endless transmission. Even 7 days would do something.

Protect/shield vulnerable people and allow healthy people to mix with the additional hygiene / distancing guidance. Trusts have had more than 6 months to prepare for the second wave combining with flu season. This was not unexpected. It's coming to the point at which we ask whether we'd rather people died or Covid or of cancer/suicide/substance abuse.

I don't see what another lockdown will achieve. Furthermore, I don't believe a sufficient proportion of the population will take any vaccine, owing to misunderstandings about how this vaccine has been "rushed through" and lack of understanding about vaccine safety.

I think, unfortunately, we have to live with it, like we do other viruses that kill people, such as flu and hiv

It will not be 'over and done with'. How would that happen?

Everyone who calls for a 'full lockdown' totally fails to appreciate the number of people who will need to continue to work outside the home during one, from those involved in the production, supply, sale and delivery of food and essential items to health and social care workers to people working to keep utilities running.

Because it wouldn't achieve anything in the long term. It's just kicking the can down the road.

If you could literally shut every single person into a separate space for 2 weeks, and close the borders completely, it would work. Then you'd need to keep the borders shut. This isn't a realistic proposition.

Immunity, through both infection and/or vaccination is the only way this ends.

It won’t work, it hasn’t worked in Europe. It makes a resurgence in most countries that try.

It’s already too widespread. Best just to figure out how to live with it until a vaccine is available. Why not take Sweden’s approach?

No lockdown has been over and done with and even those with closed borders have local lockdowns with outbreaks.

If you want anything even close to "done with" in the short term, we have to close the borders, quarantine arrivals and then aggressively test and trace. However, there simply isn't the appetite for this.

What would that achieve that wasn't achieved last time? Who and how would the cost be borne?

'Priminister' knows that isn't an option.

No I don't agree.
As soon as you open up it will come back again.
This virus is going no where

What is a priminister?

@DamnShesaSexyChick

What is a priminister?

I don't know why I did that, quickly typing whist at work and on no sleep - I obviously meant Prime minister or if you'd prefer Boris :)

Over and done with? Like in March?

@IndecentFeminist

What would that achieve that wasn't achieved last time? Who and how would the cost be borne?

'Priminister' knows that isn't an option.

What exactly is going to be achieved by closing the pubs and gyms whilst still mixing at work and at school etc?

I don't have the answers, no one does but there has to be something or what's the point? We might as well carry on as normal and let the virus run its course if we're still mixing in other places that's the point I'm trying to make.. I just don't understand the tier 3 rule and how it will help?

We're gonna be stuck with the cost either way, but surely it's just gonna be going on and on and on if we only close pubs and gyms down? I don't know maybe there's evidence to suggest that's where people catch it from but it just doesn't make sense to me.

Because if a three month total lockdown doesn’t work then a four week one doesn’t have a hope of being successful!

The damage done by closing schools again would be unbelievable imo

Because it's not possible to lock down in full and the transmission to symptoms (or no symptoms) is long so 4 weeks isn't sufficient unless everyone was alone, even kids thus not possible. Hospitals need to function, people need care, the kids of those workers need childcare, we need shops for groceries (not all of us have sufficient space for even a weeks worth of food, it's a nightmare being in a rental in a pandemic!) then there's all the other essential jobs ... lock down slows it doesn't stop.

Actually the "quickest" way to get it sorted is no restrictions at all and it will burn out in few months once we've either caught it and recovered or died - the collateral damage is not politically palatable but it's the speedy option (India seems to be following this option)

Short sharp lockdown only works if at the same time you

Get testing results returned in 24 hrs
Set up system to trace over 80% of contacts within another 24 hrs
Set up supported isolation so that no one is out of pocket as a result
( that's probably a lot cheaper than furlough)

If you don't do that you just go round and around and around ...relax...panic...relax...panic

India population significantly younger than the uks , so that has a huge impact on the death rate and economic impact of letting the virus run

The virus isn’t going to die, it’s there and isn’t going away. Another lockdown wouldn’t be of much help, unfortunately, it’s all down to us observing the rules which many people aren’t doing. I hate this new life.

Protect/shield vulnerable people and allow healthy people to mix with the additional hygiene / distancing guidance. You can't protect/shield the vulnerable, that's too large a proportion of society and too intertwined with the less vulnerable part of society.

Most of the extremely vulnerable are still shielding.

So your proposal is basically to reduce restrictions on everyone, which will lead in the short term to a rise in infections. What do you expect the effects to be, and how do you think that will improve the situation? Are you going for herd immunity?

People who are able to work from home (and not leave home) are reliant on a huge number of people going out to work. Presumably most people who wfh will need heat, power, light, water, phone line/connection, internet connection, as well as food and other essential supplies ....which they will pay for with contactless/online banking.....thats before any emergency or medical needs are taken care of - the list is pretty big of the number of workers needed to keep the country running at a really basic level.

Actually the "quickest" way to get it sorted is no restrictions at all and it will burn out in few months once we've either caught it and recovered or died Does that work? I haven't been following closely enough, but I thought that it was thought that immunity isn't long lasting, and that there have been several cases of people having had it twice? Also some hint that people who had it mildly the first time had it more severely the second time around?

Like I said I am very naive and probably clutching at straws because I hate the new normal, I'm due a baby in January and it's terrifying not knowing what's going to happen, we're in a high risk area - at the moment we're being tested at one area and if it's positive then you have to give birth at a specific hospital that's just a birth centre and I want to give birth at a different hospital as they have all the bits and bobs (for example if something goes wrong at the birth centre then they transfer you to the other hospital and I'd rather already be there in case something goes wrong) and my husband may not even be able to be there for his first baby and it's awful, maybe it's just me but I can't see how closing pubs and gyms will help.