The rate of infections in schools is being suppressed from public knowledge

[noblegiraffe]

...claims Karam Bales of the NEU.

I’m pretty sure I agree. When the newspapers are going mad about university cases and 13,000 kids and 700 teachers being off school in Birmingham doesn’t make national headlines, then something dodgy is going on.

This twitter thread collates all the evidence and is pretty damning twitter.com/karamballes/status/1315067136394625032?s=21

My own thoughts:
Why are the government ignoring the WHO recommendations on masks?
Why have they stopped PHE deciding who is sent home when there are cases in schools setting up their own helpline instead which sends home far fewer kids?
Why are the figures not being presented in a way that makes it clear which cases are in schools and not universities?
Why did Chris Whitty use a graph of test positivity rates instead of actual infection numbers in his briefing when it came to claiming that schools aren’t an issue?
Why are they insisting that children only get a test if they exhibit one of the three main adult symptoms, ignoring that the majority of children who test positive don’t have any of them?
Why are they insisting on vulnerable children being sent in with the threat of fines for non-attendance?
Why did they spend the summer pretending that unions were blocking the re-opening of schools and then paying social media influencers to say schools are safe, without taking any steps to ensure that they are?
Why did they announce a Plan B of rotas for schools in tiers of lockdown and then never actually use it?
Why did they say that an effective test and trace system was vital to opening schools and then also say they were surprised when demand increased when schools opened?
Why do they keep saying schools are a priority and that be the only thing they say about keeping them open?

And where the fuck is Gavin Williamson?

Confirmed case in my DD's school. I was bullied into sending her back. So scared and so upset .

Hi Red (waves) - all we've got is back of fag packet calculations when there isn't official data on these things. Personally I think your numbers are probably sound.

Good on the chief education officer of Liverpool on being honest to the press.

And 199/200 schools affected is NOT a good percentage however you look at it.

Indecent,

That is exactly what has happened!

I suggested it and got told so they are being punished

My own setting, went on line with little training needed on a free to use tech system
Teachers had their own modus operandi, some did Google meet, others just worked through hangouts.

But they followed the time table.
We have many vulnerable students! We were proactive in seeing what access to tech students had before lock down.

We also had people on site.
It's infuriating when where I am managed to teach and yet my own dc had zero.

Teachers being utterly belligerent and saying blanket statements '' ALL teachers were working hard on their own money '' really does trigger posters like me.
And I know our dd primary school went into political mode and tried to use lock down as a stick to beat the government with.

Whilst other primaries, got on with it and actually gave their pupils something to do.
So now, millions of dp are terrified they will have to hold down their jobs whilst simultaneously turning into teachers again.

Shot themselves and all of us in education, in the foot.

Beebity same, both dds schools have many cases now.

I'm wondering when to give the older one a dose of d and v or something.. Before half term or after if they are going to force them in!

@Autumngoldleaf

Indecent,

That is exactly what has happened!

I suggested it and got told so they are being punished

My own setting, went on line with little training needed on a free to use tech system
Teachers had their own modus operandi, some did Google meet, others just worked through hangouts.

But they followed the time table.
We have many vulnerable students! We were proactive in seeing what access to tech students had before lock down.

We also had people on site.
It's infuriating when where I am managed to teach and yet my own dc had zero.

Teachers being utterly belligerent and saying blanket statements '' ALL teachers were working hard on their own money '' really does trigger posters like me.
And I know our dd primary school went into political mode and tried to use lock down as a stick to beat the government with.

Whilst other primaries, got on with it and actually gave their pupils something to do.
So now, millions of dp are terrified they will have to hold down their jobs whilst simultaneously turning into teachers again.

Shot themselves and all of us in education, in the foot.

100%

The new guidelines were made legal requirements because of schools like my own DC’s. Their teachers did nothing, whilst I didn’t stop. They have forced a situation which will see schools forced to close one way or another.

@Janevaljane

Some people getting a cough?

Yes monkeytennis. Flippant, but that's the outcome in the vast, vast majority of cases. Average age of death is over 82 years old. The AVERAGE.

@Janevaljane Oh that makes me feel tons better about the deaths of my parents in April and May and much more confident about my chances as a 65 year old teacher - albeit part time - in primary.

I think the things with school is that the worst hit areas in the NW have had ongoing issues since the start of term but they are really starting to ramp up to be deeply problematic.

Greater Manchester is starting to get more whole school closures (I think there are currently 3 or 4) Rainhill High in St Helens had a big issue and they tested all the kids and found a major problem within the school and I know there have been whole school closures in Liverpool but I'm not sure what the current status.

So you wouldn't expect lots of closures in London to start happening until about now once they've hit 100 per 100,000 cases. It should start ramping up now there is an issue.

Liverpool have ruled out an extra week for half term in the last hour or so btw.

Just found more details on the Liverpool Echo site:

Schools have accounted for a significant number of cases, with 878 pupils testing positive since the start of term. A further 21,619 pupils out of 75,000 across the city have been sent home to learn remotely since term started at the start of last month. via Liverpool Echo.

So revise the above to 10% of pupils currently isolating and just under a third of pupils who have been sent home since September.

I’m in a tier 1 area. I usually have six different full classes on a Friday. I have eight students tomorrow. If they show up, that is. Two weeks ago, we had zero cases in my school. At the beginning of September my authority was recording 0-1 cases per day.

So you wouldn't expect lots of closures in London to start happening until about now once they've hit 100 per 100,000 cases.

My area's just gone over this.

It's so hard deciding whether to take kids out when they need an education and nothing provided for being at home, but on the other hand we're older parents and they're more fucked if either of us gets long covid (or worse) than missing a few months of school. We are well educated and probably could do some homeschooling. I'd far prefer safer schools (like my DD had in June / July - socially distanced at separate desks) though.

I know 3 people with long covid. It's really harmed them AND their children. But no-one ever seems to want to acknowledge this impact on kids.

JK could you use Oak Academy? I found it really useful last term when we had very little. Better for younger years not exam though.

See, Red, that's actually informative data.

Unlike '330 outbreaks in educational settings but we won't tell you if that's university or school, nor are we clear on whether an outbreak this week in a school that had an outbreak 3 weeks ago will actually count in the figures or will be assumed to be part of an already reported outbreak' What is needed is a weekly summary of the number of cases in schools by region, and the number of kids quarantining.

This graph, also in the PHE surveillance report suggests that all is not fine in the world of education.

We’ve just been bumped up to tier 2. I’m glad, hopefully slow it more than tier 1. Plus secondary has two weeks off.

Nellodee

- what is your school management doing about this? Did you share with them your excellent statistics - IIRC probability if school only reflecting community infection levels, that you'd see so many cases. I thought it was some fairly compelling maths.

I am glad you are well. Hope you're bearing up and your colleagues too - it must be hard even in terms of knowing whether to stick to lesson plans or not, with so many students missing.

@RedToothBrush

I think the things with school is that the worst hit areas in the NW have had ongoing issues since the start of term but they are really starting to ramp up to be deeply problematic.

Greater Manchester is starting to get more whole school closures (I think there are currently 3 or 4) Rainhill High in St Helens had a big issue and they tested all the kids and found a major problem within the school and I know there have been whole school closures in Liverpool but I'm not sure what the current status.

So you wouldn't expect lots of closures in London to start happening until about now once they've hit 100 per 100,000 cases. It should start ramping up now there is an issue.

Liverpool have ruled out an extra week for half term in the last hour or so btw.

This seems to be playing out in our area, we are now on 109/100,000 and definitely seem to be experiencing an uptick in positive cases in schools with a mixture of close contacts/ class bubbles/ whole year groups sent home to isolate (including my year 9 ds and his whole year group as of today). I'm guessing it won't be too long before we get whole school closures happening here too...

Well the bigger issue is we don't want fines or losing school places, esp since one school we're no longer in catchment for. The social aspect is a problem too.

I really resent the government not just investing in schools to make them safer. Both heads have told me they could do a lot more with more money.

I also get the sense that the current advice on testing isn't at all effective at preventing spread in schools. With the case that has just sent my ds's year group home, the student was last in school over a week ago (at home with symptoms from last Thursday onwards) but the school only found out and acted on the positive test result today. In the meantime, close contacts of that student have been 'mingling' freely across the year group and potentially spreading infection without realising. Hence the decision to just send everyone home, whereas previously the school has just sent close contacts home.
It may be that:
a) the student initially had mild or 'non-typical' symptoms so didn't bother getting tested until further down the line; or,
b) they had problems getting a test / there was a delay on the test results
Either way, the delay could well have increased the risk of widespread transmission.

Tbf i am finding the Manchester Evening News and Liverpool Echo are being very good about reporting on school closures.

I have looked around other local newspapers and its patchy. I think its really an issue with staffing levels in journalism both at local and national level for reporting school closures.

They should be following this, but local councils aren't all being forthcoming on this data and its a pain to chase by other means.

If whats happening in the Nw is anything to go by school bubbles bursting start to happen in numbers at 100 per 100,000 and i think it starts to become really problematic at about 300 - 400 per 100,000.

Whether schools are reflecting the community or driving the issue i wont speculate on, but there will be a point at which school closures become an inevitability if this doesnt get under control and numbers stabilise. But that requires the R to be below 1.

I suspect that by the end of November beginning of December debate is going to switch because schools can no longer stay open in the worst hit areas if we are already on this path.

I guess we will cross that bridge eventually but it does seem like a very likely scenario in Liverpool and/or Manchester.

It feels insane after months of barely leaving my house as a disabled parent to put DD back in school tomorrow knowing it is spreading around. Before there was a confirmed case it was easier for me to just hope it wouldn't get into our school. I don't know what to do. Anyone following my(many ) posts about this knows how scared I was to send them back. I'm really, really struggling.

@noblegiraffe

See, Red, that's actually informative data.

Unlike '330 outbreaks in educational settings but we won't tell you if that's university or school, nor are we clear on whether an outbreak this week in a school that had an outbreak 3 weeks ago will actually count in the figures or will be assumed to be part of an already reported outbreak' What is needed is a weekly summary of the number of cases in schools by region, and the number of kids quarantining.

This graph, also in the PHE surveillance report suggests that all is not fine in the world of education.

What’s going on with the great spike in the grey 10-19 line?!

@Beebityboo

It feels insane after months of barely leaving my house as a disabled parent to put DD back in school tomorrow knowing it is spreading around. Before there was a confirmed case it was easier for me to just hope it wouldn't get into our school. I don't know what to do. Anyone following my(many ) posts about this knows how scared I was to send them back. I'm really, really struggling.

@Beebityboo I really feel for you - it's such a difficult decision. My youngest dd was on the shielding list (not sure if she'll still be on it if/when shielding is reinstated, but at the very least she is clinically vulnerable). There have been several cases at her older siblings' schools and now ds has been sent home to isolate. And yet tomorrow the other 3 (including vulnerable dd) will be back in. It feels so wrong but I'm really not sure what to do about it.

@Beebityboo

It's so inhumane and so morally wrong you are in this position.
It's impossible to know what to do - it's so stressful.

Please do write to your MP. I've done so repeatedly and more recently told mine that I will hold him responsible if harm comes to us because of school reopenings against scientific advice (and linked the WHO advice, which they're not following, and the Indie Sage advice too). I've also pointed out with extra cash my DDs school could open socially distanced in June. Much good it'll do (but it made me feel better).

We do need to let MPs know we see what's happening and we don't believe their lies.

Her heal already let her stay home until last week so I can't ask him for more time because anything else would be unauthorised.
She has to get a public bus too.
Currently hiding in the bedroom having a big cry. No idea what I'm supposed to do.

Head*

Beebity I'm sorry you are in an awful situation. I really can't advise but as a parent go with your instinct. Every family in in their own unique position and we have to weigh up the priorities. Yes Education is a high priority but these are such exceptional circumstances. if your DC is happy to remain at home and is well cared for I can't see why it is harmful to keep her at home.