The rate of infections in schools is being suppressed from public knowledge

[noblegiraffe]

...claims Karam Bales of the NEU.

I’m pretty sure I agree. When the newspapers are going mad about university cases and 13,000 kids and 700 teachers being off school in Birmingham doesn’t make national headlines, then something dodgy is going on.

This twitter thread collates all the evidence and is pretty damning twitter.com/karamballes/status/1315067136394625032?s=21

My own thoughts:
Why are the government ignoring the WHO recommendations on masks?
Why have they stopped PHE deciding who is sent home when there are cases in schools setting up their own helpline instead which sends home far fewer kids?
Why are the figures not being presented in a way that makes it clear which cases are in schools and not universities?
Why did Chris Whitty use a graph of test positivity rates instead of actual infection numbers in his briefing when it came to claiming that schools aren’t an issue?
Why are they insisting that children only get a test if they exhibit one of the three main adult symptoms, ignoring that the majority of children who test positive don’t have any of them?
Why are they insisting on vulnerable children being sent in with the threat of fines for non-attendance?
Why did they spend the summer pretending that unions were blocking the re-opening of schools and then paying social media influencers to say schools are safe, without taking any steps to ensure that they are?
Why did they announce a Plan B of rotas for schools in tiers of lockdown and then never actually use it?
Why did they say that an effective test and trace system was vital to opening schools and then also say they were surprised when demand increased when schools opened?
Why do they keep saying schools are a priority and that be the only thing they say about keeping them open?

And where the fuck is Gavin Williamson?

Just how many of those actually have Covid-19 though compared with those who are just isolating as a precaution?

That distinction doesn't matter if your concern is number of pupios not in school.

If you have an affected y11 or 13 the interruption to education is in itself a serious concern, and not much fun for y10 and 12, or any household with an exceptionally vulnerable person

I think there are a few reasons @noblegiraffe:

Confirmation bias : the initial suggestions were that children don't get affected and they don't spread. Even though newer studies have found differently, people are more likely to believe what they already thought and dismiss new evidence. The Government is no exception to that.

The Narrative : for months, the Government held fast in the narrative that schools were safe and there were no issues whatsoever. They even spent money on a public campaign to persuade people of that narrative. Politically, they can't afford to back down on that.

Perception of PPE : the Government cannot introduce more PPE into schools as that would be impossible to reconcile with their narrative. It would be very difficult for parents to believe schools are totally safe if their child has to take a pack of masks to wear all day.

Childcare : The Government need schools to be open in order to provide childcare. It needs people to be back at work physically and spending more money. Those are less likely to happen if people don't send their children to school. This is not just primary as many early secondary parents feel uncomfortable with their child being home alone during the day.

Herd Immunity : I'm almost hesitant to suggest this because no Government should ever be this stupid. However, it is possible that they have returned to this strategy simply because, financially and politically, the Government cannot afford another lockdown and that is what would be needed if we aren't following a herd immunity strategy. They would not be able to state this publically given how slammed they got by the world when they tried it before. I hope that this isn't the case but it's possible.

Schools need to stay open. Give teachers full ppe if they want ajd open windows.

Our children's education is more important than some people getting a cough.

If I was ECV I’d consider schools as serving 97% of population and speak to consultant re risk not look to news stories on local numbers

I am ECV. My consultant can tell me a great deal about my vulnerability, but precisely zero about the level
of risk posed by local schools. She’s a haematologist, not a public health consultant with access to real-time outbreak figures,

Can you promise that? Are you the apparently only honest government minister? Doubt it. You’ll actually find that statistics are being manipulated by the government before release. It also doesn’t suit the narrative of most papers in this country to defend teachers and point out what’s going on.

I’m a media lawyer with a particular specialism in reporting restrictions. I honestly can’t think what mechanisms the government could use to achieve this sort of consistent and complete suppression of the media.

Them manipulating their own numbers or the papers choosing not to publish are certainly things that could happen but that’s not what the OP was saying.

@Janevaljane

Schools need to stay open. Give teachers full ppe if they want ajd open windows.

Our children's education is more important than some people getting a cough.

Some people getting a cough?

😩

@MoreW1ne

You wonder whether more and more school staff are beginning to feel more comfortable and safe as the term goes on though. In many schools things appear more normal.

Teachers have almost instant power to close a school at the moment if they weren't happy. A large group of teachers could easily 'have symptoms' and then have to take 2-3 days off waiting for results (seems to be average for test time round here). A large enough group would close the school as in March when there were very few teachers.

Equally, if that self test happened to not be competed very well and was inconclusive...well the school would pretty much be done until half term as they could unfortunately not make a second test in time and then isolate for the 14 days.

I'm not advocating that but if teachers were really worried on an individual/group level it would be easy to do and could receive no blame.

I also think you may see more of it going into the latter stages of next half term as the typical termly pressure builds.

If large groups of teachers in a school lied about having symptoms and all deliberately did their test badly so that the results had to be repeated in order to close the school, I’m sure a lot of blame would be received.

I honestly can’t think what mechanisms the government could use to achieve this sort of consistent and complete suppression of the media

This.

@iVampire

If I was ECV I’d consider schools as serving 97% of population and speak to consultant re risk not look to news stories on local numbers

I am ECV. My consultant can tell me a great deal about my vulnerability, but precisely zero about the level
of risk posed by local schools. She’s a haematologist, not a public health consultant with access to real-time outbreak figures,

Well yes it’s up to you what to do based on your conversation.

Some people getting a cough?

Yes monkeytennis. Flippant, but that's the outcome in the vast, vast majority of cases. Average age of death is over 82 years old. The AVERAGE.

@Janevaljane

Schools need to stay open. Give teachers full ppe if they want ajd open windows.

Our children's education is more important than some people getting a cough.

Schools need to be made safe as the priority. Staying open (when safe) would be nice, but safe is more important.

i million people have died of that cough and that is just the start if it.

I’m a media lawyer with a particular specialism in reporting restrictions. I honestly can’t think what mechanisms the government could use to achieve this sort of consistent and complete suppression of the media.

Exactly it’s crazy

Why does every case need to end up in the local paper?

I'm not talking about every case appearing in the local paper, I mentioned 13,000 kids in Birmingham being off school. You don't think, given the insistence that schools are open, that schools actually not being open for thousands of kids in one city (and god knows how many in Greater Manchester and Merseyside) is of national public interest?

@Janevaljane

Some people getting a cough?

Yes monkeytennis. Flippant, but that's the outcome in the vast, vast majority of cases. Average age of death is over 82 years old. The AVERAGE.

It's funny how difficult it is to find the actual figures for England and the UK other that Scotland. Do you have a link for that by any chance?

Well, as you can't make anywhere safe, then shall we close them all? Just see what happens then!

At our school we get a ‘warning letter’ if some one has been sent home due to symptoms then a follow up letter to stating the outcome.

We’re actually in a high risk area and I’m suspecting we’re going to go in to some kind of lock down today but luckily enough we’ve not had one case at school yet despite being in a town centre.

@Janevaljane thank you I know what an average is. Just like I know people of working age who have died of this, one of them an educator. Just like I know we deserve to have our working environment as safe as possible to keep schools open. Gotta go, gotta teach all your lovely children..

@noblegiraffe

Why does every case need to end up in the local paper?

I'm not talking about every case appearing in the local paper, I mentioned 13,000 kids in Birmingham being off school. You don't think, given the insistence that schools are open, that schools actually not being open for thousands of kids in one city (and god knows how many in Greater Manchester and Merseyside) is of national public interest?

It’s local news and has been reported locally.

It’s not of interest. If it was and was being suppressed it’s easy for important news to be spread anyway by SM

Two secondary schools near us. One sends the year group home if there’s a single case. 3 year groups off at the mo. The other sends home the 2 kids who sit either side of the one with covid. Funnily enough, they’re “fully open” and loudly proud of that.

Probably depends on whether the head thinks covid is dangerous or not!

It's funny how difficult it is to find the actual figures for England and the UK other that Scotland. Do you have a link for that by any chance?

It's funny how easy it is to find.

Google "average age of coronavirus deaths uk"

I honestly can’t think what mechanisms the government could use to achieve this sort of consistent and complete suppression of the media.

Are you suggesting that it's not happening? What is actually going on? Something's going on.

@Janevaljane

Well, as you can't make anywhere safe, then shall we close them all? Just see what happens then!

No, how about

• government provides PPE for teachers
• government allows schools to use additional premises and gives money for this
• ECV can home school temporarily
• blended learning where parents and children want this in secondary
• government funds the above
• children still can be tested
• schools are allowed to use track and trace (after government replaces Dido Harding with someone competent and properly appointed in competitive interview)

There you go

@noblegiraffe

I honestly can’t think what mechanisms the government could use to achieve this sort of consistent and complete suppression of the media.

Are you suggesting that it's not happening? What is actually going on? Something's going on.

What’s going on is that cases are so low with 1% primary affected that people are just getting in with it

The story from a non local place is of zero interest because school for many has been ok for them

@Janevaljane

It's funny how difficult it is to find the actual figures for England and the UK other that Scotland. Do you have a link for that by any chance?

It's funny how easy it is to find.

Google "average age of coronavirus deaths uk"

I did. I couldn't find it. How about you link to your source for the figure you just quoted?

Are schools really that important to the economy noblegiraffe? I don’t disagree with you I am just asking. As so many businesses are being closed “to protect schools” what is the reason from the government point of view? Is it because of the pressure fro usforthem?