The rate of infections in schools is being suppressed from public knowledge

[noblegiraffe]

...claims Karam Bales of the NEU.

I’m pretty sure I agree. When the newspapers are going mad about university cases and 13,000 kids and 700 teachers being off school in Birmingham doesn’t make national headlines, then something dodgy is going on.

This twitter thread collates all the evidence and is pretty damning twitter.com/karamballes/status/1315067136394625032?s=21

My own thoughts:
Why are the government ignoring the WHO recommendations on masks?
Why have they stopped PHE deciding who is sent home when there are cases in schools setting up their own helpline instead which sends home far fewer kids?
Why are the figures not being presented in a way that makes it clear which cases are in schools and not universities?
Why did Chris Whitty use a graph of test positivity rates instead of actual infection numbers in his briefing when it came to claiming that schools aren’t an issue?
Why are they insisting that children only get a test if they exhibit one of the three main adult symptoms, ignoring that the majority of children who test positive don’t have any of them?
Why are they insisting on vulnerable children being sent in with the threat of fines for non-attendance?
Why did they spend the summer pretending that unions were blocking the re-opening of schools and then paying social media influencers to say schools are safe, without taking any steps to ensure that they are?
Why did they announce a Plan B of rotas for schools in tiers of lockdown and then never actually use it?
Why did they say that an effective test and trace system was vital to opening schools and then also say they were surprised when demand increased when schools opened?
Why do they keep saying schools are a priority and that be the only thing they say about keeping them open?

And where the fuck is Gavin Williamson?

The fines thing pissed me off no end. Dh is ecv and dd2 was struggling to attend school pre lockdown. We were told on day 1 that the school would have to fine us if she didn't attend.

There is also the possibility that in primary-aged children the symptoms are more likely to present differently

But they weren’t until recently. The cases were increasing then a couple of weeks after schools opened, actually started dropping.

When they have reported them here [ A while back] there have been plenty cases in primary schools. At one point there seemed more cases than secondary.
This is anecdotal. Loads of schools in Glasgow [Primary] that have had covid cases.

They are now just not reporting them. Ive noticed this for a while.

When they do report them, they make sure that the teachers are the cause. There was a terrible article not that long ago when teachers were made to look to blame for primary schools in glasgow closing making direct to not SD in school from other staff. Problem is we have meeting and are pressurised to attend them because management says.

There’s the possibility that what looks like staff to staff transmission is actually spread by asymptomatic children.

@noblegiraffe

There’s the possibility that what looks like staff to staff transmission is actually spread by asymptomatic children.

Totally! Its exactly the point!

I would like to see the children's ones split much more:
Let's see positivity rates, and numbers/100k on 0-3, 4-6, 7-9, 10-12, 13-15, 16-18.
Or perhaps even better on school years:
Year R-year 2, Year 3-year 5, year 6-year 8, year 9-year 11, 6th form.
Then I'll make a decision whether it's spreading there.
It seems to me that the age is done to hide school spread.
By putting the 10yos in with the primary it takes the oldest ones, and most likely to show symptoms. By putting the 19yos in the secondary, it means they can just blame uni student freshers.

One of my theories is that children are not tested always if it's similar symptoms in a family. If I had symptoms and one of the dc had symptoms, I'd be tempted to get me tested and go by that, as it's quite a nasty test.
Add into that parents who don't want to have to isolate so won't test in case "mild cold symptoms/D & V, will send them back when they're better", plus children seem to have different symptoms, may add into fewer children being tested.

Schools aren't allowed to ask to see a negative test result, parents might easily lie that they've been for a test and got a negative result to get back in.

But to me it's the asymptomatic that's worrying me. At the uni where they tested lots, 90% were asymptomatic. It's meant to be more often asymptomatic as they get younger, but you can still spread it even if you are asymptomatic.

So if you have a class of 30, and they all had it, that's 3 with symptoms if 90% are asymptomatic.
That's one to get tested, one for the parents to dose up on calpol and pretend they didn't notice they had a fever and one to get kept off school but not tested.
And 27 children to spread it without people even realising, and for the government to call it an isolated case.

@noblegiraffe

There’s the possibility that what looks like staff to staff transmission is actually spread by asymptomatic children.

Yes, I've seen that too ,or even blaming it on staff catching it independently out of school.

"The rush from politicians and many parents to get schools open full time whatever the cost to public health was a big error.

I blame the government, but I'm also annoyed with all the parents who refused to think it through. The threads on here in summer were full of zealots.

The worst bit is fines for non-attendance. That's an actual disgrace. Again many fellow parents said they were necessary."

Totally agree. I feel somehow, the government have got the teaching staff over a barrel. The teaching staff are worried about poor attendance figures (fines for parents) reflecting badly on school figures. They are trying to follow guidelines but at the same time, worrying and pressuring parents with fines for non attendance. They are not sending home children who are sick.

My ds's year was off all last week, due to a case in his year 'bubble'. About three times I had year leaders on the phone, pressuring me and threatening me to make him log on and do work. He's 14 but he has ASD. He doesn't respond well to his routine being disrupted and he doesn't respond to rewards or punishments. I was telling him, as far as I was concerned, he was. In the end, she said 'well you have to sit with him whilst he does it, don't you?' I tried explaining that I can't 'sit with him' 24/7, I have a 2 year old, plus other commitments. I then get stressed about 'explaining absenses' and making him do his work. It's affecting my mental health and the rest of the family.

He's truanted twice after coming back after lockdown so far, they made me call the police once. Last year (before lockdown) he'd made loads of progress and hadn't truanted or been put in isolation for 2 terms!

Now, my dd is showing symptoms (so I've ordered a test) she said 2 people in her class threw up the other day, one IN class. They are forcing dcs to go in ill and parents are too afraid of the repurcussions to keep them off! So my ds has to isolate. Of course, his year heads were on the phone. It's really disrupting and also, I never know when to believe them because kids can 'swing the lead' sometimes. Forging them
Into and back to school will probably increase infection rates imo.

I was wondering why they aren't dividing the age groups in the data too, if there's such a leap in infections from those aged 16+, as was claimed today. They can't present data like that with the caveat that, actually, the massive rise in infections is only down to 16-19 year olds. Why lump them all together then?

It seems very strange that infections in primary-aged children would decrease when it's increasing in other age groups. Either they are truly anomalous or proportionately fewer are being tested.

@AlphaJura

"The rush from politicians and many parents to get schools open full time whatever the cost to public health was a big error.

I blame the government, but I'm also annoyed with all the parents who refused to think it through. The threads on here in summer were full of zealots.

The worst bit is fines for non-attendance. That's an actual disgrace. Again many fellow parents said they were necessary."

Totally agree. I feel somehow, the government have got the teaching staff over a barrel. The teaching staff are worried about poor attendance figures (fines for parents) reflecting badly on school figures. They are trying to follow guidelines but at the same time, worrying and pressuring parents with fines for non attendance. They are not sending home children who are sick.

My ds's year was off all last week, due to a case in his year 'bubble'. About three times I had year leaders on the phone, pressuring me and threatening me to make him log on and do work. He's 14 but he has ASD. He doesn't respond well to his routine being disrupted and he doesn't respond to rewards or punishments. I was telling him, as far as I was concerned, he was. In the end, she said 'well you have to sit with him whilst he does it, don't you?' I tried explaining that I can't 'sit with him' 24/7, I have a 2 year old, plus other commitments. I then get stressed about 'explaining absenses' and making him do his work. It's affecting my mental health and the rest of the family.

He's truanted twice after coming back after lockdown so far, they made me call the police once. Last year (before lockdown) he'd made loads of progress and hadn't truanted or been put in isolation for 2 terms!

Now, my dd is showing symptoms (so I've ordered a test) she said 2 people in her class threw up the other day, one IN class. They are forcing dcs to go in ill and parents are too afraid of the repurcussions to keep them off! So my ds has to isolate. Of course, his year heads were on the phone. It's really disrupting and also, I never know when to believe them because kids can 'swing the lead' sometimes. Forging them
Into and back to school will probably increase infection rates imo.

Shocking

And 27 children to spread it without people even realising, and for the government to call it an isolated case.

But 27 children would spread it straight to their parents. Are you saying that the parents wouldn't notice either?

Oh yes, and also. Apparently a post 16 member of staff has tested positive, but none of the other staff or pupils have to isolate!! Because, they can "guarantee they've always social distanced"! Well sorry, but what good is S/D (which I doubt has 100% happened) when they're stood in class talking all day long, with no masks! They've said masks between lessons and lunch and break and entering the school. But not lessons. So what's the point? But my ds had to isoloate because someone in his year bubble had it (they wouldn't say who, so don't know if I'm his class or not) and he also has to isolate again because his sister, 2 yrs below is showing symptoms, ie coughing. All the while, I'm getting shit from the school because he's not doing enough work/homework, he's been truanting and racking up detentions. Even though he suffers from Aspergers and none of this is his fault

I found this. It’s not dated but was posted as current thinking. It recognises they’re unsure as to current role children play in transmission but gives an interesting summary of further options they’re debating.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/925856/S0770_NPIs_table__pivot_.pdf

Apologies if it’s an historic document

It does of course reveal that despite the gaslighting they’re well aware closing or temp closing schools has one of the biggest effects on reducing R rate.

Fines are completely inappropriate in the current circumstances (I would argue they're generally pointless and do little to deter the genuinely serious offenders anyway, but that's a whole different thread).

Regarding staff to staff transmission, I do know from my experience at my own primary school and DH's at his secondary school that SLT are in complete fear over staff absence levels and you'd better not call in sick unless you are clearly going to cough all over everyone all day long. We've had staff in today who've been vomiting over the weekend who have been asked to come in if they possibly can, even though pupils would be expected to take 48 hours off.

I wouldn't be surprised if milder cases are missed because staff don't feel able to err on the side of caution. Hopefully other schools are taking a more responsible approach but the culture of being expected to come in unless you are on your deathbed is hard to break through.

@Oaktree55

It does of course reveal that despite the gaslighting they’re well aware closing or temp closing schools has one of the biggest effects on reducing R rate.

Totally!

[quote Oaktree55]I found this. It’s not dated but was posted as current thinking. It recognises they’re unsure as to current role children play in transmission but gives an interesting summary of further options they’re debating.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/925856/S0770_NPIs_table__pivot_.pdf[/quote]
Very interesting. Thank you.

All CV employees have been sent back to work, I know some CV people who work in care homes. 1 CV worked all the way through, 2 ECV and shielded 1 has returned 1 has decided to leave altogether. It does seem unfair but CV adults do have a choice whether to return to a school setting or not, choosing their health before income which of course is a horrendous choice to have to make but a choice nonetheless

So, care home workers - PPE and regular testing. Very well known issues, lots and LOTS of publicity about how things went in care homes.

Health care workers - PPE and regular testing. Oh, and back when things were bad, very vulnerable bods, and even BAME people, were taken away from the front line. HCP also choose to work with ill people, to take the risks with illness - it's in the job description.

Other work environments - social distancing, working from home, LOTS of measures to prevent contact with other people.

Teachers, literally the opposite.

Apparently a post 16 member of staff has tested positive, but none of the other staff or pupils have to isolate!! Because, they can "guarantee they've always social distanced"!

This happened at DH's school too. The Head was categorically told that nobody other than the staff member should be sent home if it was a teacher because they should have social distanced (even though due to the size of the rooms it is impossible for the teacher to stay 2m away from the desks!).The sixth form bubble was eventually closed when 4 students tested positive.

@Notselfish

And 27 children to spread it without people even realising, and for the government to call it an isolated case.

But 27 children would spread it straight to their parents. Are you saying that the parents wouldn't notice either?

I'm pretty sure the 27 sets of parents and the class teachers would soon realise that it had been spread asymptomatically between the 27 children. Its not uncommon for parents of their dc classes to speak between themselves it wouldn't take Einstein to work out where the infection came from if most of the parents of 1 class suddenly became unwell and tested positive.

@MarjorytheTrashHeap

Apparently a post 16 member of staff has tested positive, but none of the other staff or pupils have to isolate!! Because, they can "guarantee they've always social distanced"!

This happened at DH's school too. The Head was categorically told that nobody other than the staff member should be sent home if it was a teacher because they should have social distanced (even though due to the size of the rooms it is impossible for the teacher to stay 2m away from the desks!).The sixth form bubble was eventually closed when 4 students tested positive.

Ffs