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The rate of infections in schools is being suppressed from public knowledge

999 replies

noblegiraffe · 11/10/2020 23:28

...claims Karam Bales of the NEU.

I’m pretty sure I agree. When the newspapers are going mad about university cases and 13,000 kids and 700 teachers being off school in Birmingham doesn’t make national headlines, then something dodgy is going on.

This twitter thread collates all the evidence and is pretty damning twitter.com/karamballes/status/1315067136394625032?s=21

My own thoughts:
Why are the government ignoring the WHO recommendations on masks?
Why have they stopped PHE deciding who is sent home when there are cases in schools setting up their own helpline instead which sends home far fewer kids?
Why are the figures not being presented in a way that makes it clear which cases are in schools and not universities?
Why did Chris Whitty use a graph of test positivity rates instead of actual infection numbers in his briefing when it came to claiming that schools aren’t an issue?
Why are they insisting that children only get a test if they exhibit one of the three main adult symptoms, ignoring that the majority of children who test positive don’t have any of them?
Why are they insisting on vulnerable children being sent in with the threat of fines for non-attendance?
Why did they spend the summer pretending that unions were blocking the re-opening of schools and then paying social media influencers to say schools are safe, without taking any steps to ensure that they are?
Why did they announce a Plan B of rotas for schools in tiers of lockdown and then never actually use it?
Why did they say that an effective test and trace system was vital to opening schools and then also say they were surprised when demand increased when schools opened?
Why do they keep saying schools are a priority and that be the only thing they say about keeping them open?

And where the fuck is Gavin Williamson?

OP posts:
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noblegiraffe · 12/10/2020 18:21

That was because someone said ‘no cases in schools in my area’. As pointed out, how would they know?

OP posts:
neveradullmoment99 · 12/10/2020 18:34

@Janevaljane

Its not in the interest of business to report that schools have rising cases

This is just not true! There aren't rising cases in schools according to Professor Van Tam. If there were, it would be in the news!

Aye, and you believe the government..not!
neveradullmoment99 · 12/10/2020 18:35

It is clearly rising in schools especially secondaries. Why wouldn't it?

psychomath · 12/10/2020 18:42

I know I'm only one person, but this idea that covid is running rampant in schools just doesn't tally with what I'm seeing day to day. I'm in one of the worst hit parts of the country, and if the rate of cases identified in schools was the same as it is in the local community then my secondary would currently be seeing about five kids test positive every day, and a member of staff every 2-3 days. If schools were actively driving infection then you would expect it to be even higher. Instead we've had four pupils and two staff test positive in the entire time since we've been back, and at least two of them were already self-isolating because a household member had it, so they more than likely caught it outside school.

I don't think my school is doing anything special in terms of preventative measures either, as normal colds are rife - I've been off twice to get tested in the last month, both times negative - and, frankly, I can see that not much distancing is happening, despite their best efforts. I don't know of any schools nearby that have closed completely, which isn't to say there aren't any, but I would definitely have heard if it was happening all over the place, and again you'd be expecting to see multiple kids in each secondary school test positive every day given the community infection rates. If that was happening we'd surely see mass closures pretty quickly, however much the schools tried to keep it under wraps.

I can think of three reasons why positive cases might be lower in schools than the local area in general: first, families might be being more careful than adults without school-aged children if they're worried about disruption to their children's education; second, children could be more likely to be asymptomatic and therefore cases aren't being picked up; and/or third, it might actually be true that children don't spread it as easily. I don't think the first one can be solely responsible, as there are hundreds or thousands of families in most schools, and they're not all going to be that conscientious. Unfortunately we can't easily distinguish between the last two without mass testing of both school communities and random people across the region, and given that the testing system is struggling to accommodate even those people with symptoms, I'm not sure we have the resources to do that currently.

I would fully support measures to mitigate potential infection rates in schools, if nothing else because it would also reduce the massive disruption that's currently being caused by everyone being off with normal coughs all the time, but equally they have to be proportionate. There's no point spending huge amounts to create extra space or having kids in on a rota (or not at all) if it turns out that schools aren't actually a significant factor in transmission. So far I'm not totally convinced that they are, but whether that's just because the data hasn't been collected/published, it's hard to say

neveradullmoment99 · 12/10/2020 18:43

Personally I REALLY dont understand why people arent more worried about schools.
They is absolutely no SD in school and putting aside the concerns that teachers may catch it, what about their children bringing it home?
I have to say I am pretty shocked that noone seems concerned that their child could carry it back and potentially spread it to their family.
Noone knows how their body will react and while its fine to say
that its only the aged or those with underlying conditions the simple truth is we have no idea how it will affect an individual. We have no idea if we have underlying medical conditions that we are not aware of.
Schools esp secondary schools are a haven for the virus spreading.
Is it worth the loss of a parent? or a debilitating after effect that last for years?
I really cannot believe the attitude of parents.

Janevaljane · 12/10/2020 18:44

It's rising everywhere. I suppose the argument is - is it rising in schools exponentially? Are their spikes in schools? That doesn't seem to have happened yet. Of course, it might.

Janevaljane · 12/10/2020 18:44

*there Hmm

neveradullmoment99 · 12/10/2020 18:44

Actually its not fine to say the aged and the ones with underlying conditions but people might say this to me. For the record i dont think any of it is fine.

psychomath · 12/10/2020 18:46

I should add that I'm genuinely quite surprised by the relatively low number of cases we've had so far, as before we went back I was fully expecting it to go straight round everyone like the usual coughs and colds. Hence being interested in why it hasn't yet.

neveradullmoment99 · 12/10/2020 18:47

Well in the last fortnight, i am not in a high case area but in the high school there has been two cases that i know of. I say I know of because there will be more. The reason that it isnt rampant is that there is not a lot of community transmission but it will come.

neveradullmoment99 · 12/10/2020 18:48

They are only informing us if the year group is affected. I know this for a fact.

neveradullmoment99 · 12/10/2020 18:49

My child was sitting next to someone sent home. The child is a friend of the child who tested +
At least 20 children were sent home.

neveradullmoment99 · 12/10/2020 18:50

You are an absolute fool if you think it isnt happening in schools.

Janevaljane · 12/10/2020 18:51

Of course it's hapoening! I know that because its been reported in our local paper. There is not a massive conspiracy!

neveradullmoment99 · 12/10/2020 18:51

If you are happy enough to know your child will bring it home at some point, no problem. Crack on with education as it is.

3littlewords · 12/10/2020 18:53

@neveradullmoment99

Personally I REALLY dont understand why people arent more worried about schools. They is absolutely no SD in school and putting aside the concerns that teachers may catch it, what about their children bringing it home? I have to say I am pretty shocked that noone seems concerned that their child could carry it back and potentially spread it to their family. Noone knows how their body will react and while its fine to say that its only the aged or those with underlying conditions the simple truth is we have no idea how it will affect an individual. We have no idea if we have underlying medical conditions that we are not aware of. Schools esp secondary schools are a haven for the virus spreading. Is it worth the loss of a parent? or a debilitating after effect that last for years? I really cannot believe the attitude of parents.
Personally, ill put my own health at risk for the sake of their right to an education. By not going to school there chance of being affected long term without an education is far far higher than them passing covid to me and it killing me. Its about hedging my bets and going with the least likely affect on them. Im sure all parents realise that by sending our dc out into the community that comes with an element of risk, of course the risk ratio will differ in each families circumstances.
psychomath · 12/10/2020 18:54

How does that compare to your community rates in terms of cases per 100,000, neveradullmoment?

I guess another possibility is that it differs by area - e.g. in university towns community rates might be higher due to the student population, while school rates are unaffected by students as they don't tend to mix that much with families. That would make school transmission look less significant than it actually is. So frustrating that we don't have much good data to go on.

HipTightOnions · 12/10/2020 18:56

Personally, ill put my own health at risk for the sake of their right to an education

That’s your call, of course.

How do you feel about putting my health at risk too?

BelleSausage · 12/10/2020 18:57

Every school around us has one bubble shut. We are the most rural and have evaded it so far but it is only a matter of time.

The reason why it is important is that children don’t exist in a bubble without adults. Teens especially have the same transmission rate as adults and are freely mixing in schools, with no social distancing.

While I am glad for them- they love seeing each other. I am afraid for my elderly parents who I look after. And for my vulnerable colleagues.

People seem oddly all or nothing about everything these days.

NRatched · 12/10/2020 19:00

@SeekingAnswers3

I believe this except I don’t think they ever gave up on the herd immunity strategy but they didn’t have the public support for it in March.

The more I read on here the more I realise more people are now open to the idea of herd immunity...

Except as we don’t even know if there is any real lasting immunity from Covid it’s quite a big gamble isn’t it?

Unfortunately I think schools will go back to remote learning at some point in this academic year if things get overwhelmed.

I’m not looking forward to it. Mine are too young to be able to independently do remote learning.

Except as we don’t even know if there is any real lasting immunity from Covid it’s quite a big gamble isn’t it?

Well if there is NOT any long lasting immunity, then those pinning hope on a vaccine are also screwed. Shitty shitty situation really.

Seems obvious the main spread will be work and schools to me. Yet its still being made out to be pubs (the newsnight missing education settings off totally is ridiculous, if that did indeed happen). Restrictions seem to focus on meeting family,yet this is responsible for not much of the spread it seems? All seems so fucked up. The continual making out that schools/work are basically immune from covid infections is simply bonkers. No restrictions on family/pubs is going to make any difference while schools and work carry on as usual really. But at the same time work/school cannot realistically close again. I see no answers, but the restrictions have always seemed a bit odd given figures. Its also seemed obvious that schools going back would increase infection numbers, but some will still argue that its not schools, its Nancy down the road meeting her parents!

3littlewords · 12/10/2020 19:04

@HipTightOnions

Personally, ill put my own health at risk for the sake of their right to an education

That’s your call, of course.

How do you feel about putting my health at risk too?

As I said above we aren't being offered an alternative so I'm not going to be made to feel guilty for wanting my dc to be able to go to school
Pollynextdoor · 12/10/2020 19:20

I feel sorry for teachers. At my child’s school there are some vulnerable teachers and I cannot see how they can protect themselves properly. I don’t feel that my child’s right to an education should go before their safety. It’s possible to teach online at least secondary.

BelleSausage · 12/10/2020 19:24

That’s not what people are saying. Of course you want your kids in school.

People are pointing out that in a situation where people are dying and people are losing their livelihoods and the rate of infection is still increasing to the point where the NHS will fall over it is ludicrous to keep schools fully open if they are part are driving up infection.

And I mean part time learning not full closure.

The problem is that lots of kids have a false sense of normality. They are forgetting that there is an issue. Which would be great it it was encouraging them to spread infection. My Yr10s are having massive sleepovers, meeting in parks, snogging in corridors, frotaging in the playground. There is no social distancing.

3littlewords · 12/10/2020 19:25

its possible to teach online at least secondary

But the point is that's not an option available to us at the moment and all the posting about it on here isn't going to change that, it doesn't make it right of course but we're all making decisions with the choices we've got and online learning at the moment isn't one of them

mamapants · 12/10/2020 19:32

I also choose to put my children's education ahead of risk to myself as I believe the risk to my health is low and risk to their education is huge.
I think people working in schools can make their own risk assessment whether they are willing to take that risk.

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