What happens when the hospitals reach capacity?

[rainytreeleaves]

Just reading about NI nearly reaching bed capacity and a few places in the north as well. Hospital in Londonderry saying they are in a worse state than in the spring.

The hospital that I work in has been on black alert all week. The covid ward is full, no other wards can be repurposed as everywhere is full and (from tracing they believe) community transmission and via asymptomatic staff, there is a mass outbreak on our care of the elderly ward. Lots of staff self isolating so unsafe shifts and lots of patients infected. Also those elderly patients aren't now leaving to free beds up and no elderly patients can be admitted there for specialist input. It's a total mess.

Our local nightingale can't open as they don't have anyone to staff it. They are literally begging people throughout our region to go on the bank to staff it but there's not enough trained staff available.

I'm just not sure what will happen next....we are worse now than the spring. Slightly less covid so far but much greater bed need in general and more general transmission throughout making working really difficult.

I’ve got no idea. It wasn’t me that suggested it.

Ah OK I thought you were suggesting that as a cheaper solution, sorry.

@frasersmummy

There are approx 1278 hospitals in the uk.. And 4323 in hospital with covid

That works out at less than 4 cases per hospital

What a pointless comment. in the briefing this morning the woman (sorry I forget her name) who was representing the North West hospitals said that 30% of their beds were filled with Covid patients at the moment. That will absolutely rise, since the hospital admissions now are from infection that were recorded 2-4 weeks ago., so that 30% is going to go up very quickly in the North West in the next 2-4 weeks and we can't do anything about that now.

Yes of course some of them could be sent to other hospitals but often that is not practical, especially if the patient is very ill. In any case, the spread of infections is the older population is now spreading out from that geographical area. As that happens more and more hospitals will have this level of admissions (and possibly higher) . Where will patients (whether they are in for Covid or something else) go then?

@Namenic

The government will simply not have the funds available to fund the nhs as it currently does if there’s another lockdown.

There will just not be £150 billion in the bank to pay for it after many businesses go under and unemployment soars.

It will then be a case of those who can afford it taking out insurance and charities stepping in where they can for those who can’t.

It is issues like this that the lockdown fanatics cannot see. It is not just a case of shutting down the economy and everyone lives happy ever after.

It will then be a case of those who can afford it taking out insurance and charities stepping in where they can for those who can’t.

How will this reduce the overall cost?

If we go for “herd immunity”, how will healthcare be provided when the hospitals are overrun with sick Covid patients? The existence of better supportive treatments may make the bed occupancy rate worse because patients will be in the beds rather than in the mortuary.

@WiseUpJanetWeiss

The cost to government will be reduced as individuals will be paying for their own healthcare.

Hospitals will not be overwhelmed if we retain the current restrictions and re-introduce shielding for those who are vulnerable to hospitalisation and death.

@WiseUpJanetWeiss

I’ve got no idea. It wasn’t me that suggested it.

Ah OK I thought you were suggesting that as a cheaper solution, sorry.

No I was just quoting you quoting someone else....I think!!

@StatisticalSense please tell us what your occupation is. I’m sure we’d find some type of work for you in one of the Nightingale Hospitals.

[quote Ecosse]@WiseUpJanetWeiss

The cost to government will be reduced as individuals will be paying for their own healthcare.

Hospitals will not be overwhelmed if we retain the current restrictions and re-introduce shielding for those who are vulnerable to hospitalisation and death.[/quote]
Ah OK - the I’m all right jack approach to healthcare provision.

How will you shield my friend who has recently finished chemo? Her daughter is in a bubble of 300 in secondary school.

@WiseUpJanetWeiss

I’m not proposing an insurance system at all. I’m simply stating that another lockdown will decimate the economy and mean the government simply does it have the funds to pay for the NHS.

The lockdown fanatics seem think the economy is some mythical being rather than people’s jobs and businesses and what funds our public services.

Personally I would shield every family member of a shielder who ives with them and pay for that to happen. Shielding teachers could teach shielded DC online for example.

[quote Ecosse]@WiseUpJanetWeiss

I’m not proposing an insurance system at all. I’m simply stating that another lockdown will decimate the economy and mean the government simply does it have the funds to pay for the NHS.

The lockdown fanatics seem think the economy is some mythical being rather than people’s jobs and businesses and what funds our public services.

Personally I would shield every family member of a shielder who ives with them and pay for that to happen. Shielding teachers could teach shielded DC online for example.[/quote]
The decision not to fund public services and furlough is political. The economy does not run like a household budget no matter what politicians would have you believe.

But I agree with you on the other points, absolutely. Measures need to be nuanced to resolve complex problems. Ridiculous sloganeering has got us into this mess.

@ListeningQuietly

If people's lives mattered to this Government they would not have systematically underfunded the NHS for ten years

If lives really mattered to the Government
they would have kept Nurse trainees on bursaries not loans

If health really mattered to this Government they would have excluded all health care workers from their shitty hostile environment visa rules

but hey
you knew what you were voting for in December 2019
and June 2016
own it

Totally agree!! Nurse for over 25 years. Pre COVID it was difficult enough with wards running on staff goodwill to stay late, work extra, miss breaks etc etc Can’t fight a pandemic on goodwill!! I am dreading what the next months will bring. When will people wake up and see that consistently voting in a Tory party who essentially don’t believe in the NHS, gets you what we’ve got now- an NHS already on its knees trying to fight its biggest challenge ever.

I am in the NW. Apparently we are going to be in Tier 2, nothing will change, we have been under local lockdown since July and the cases are spirally, how is this going to get the virus under control? Our local hospital was at breaking point last week, telling people not to attend A&E

I am so worried and scared.

This whole tier thing is a ridiculous nonsense.

We need a coherent joined up national approach. Local input, yes, but the actual approach should be a national one.

It should also be proactive rather than reactive. What a silly idea dragging things out with pointless half hearted measures that only serve to prolong the agony. Waiting to act only after things get bad....shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted.

With regards the claims of we can't afford to do anything. We managed to find billions to throw at failed test, trace, and trace systems. The money's there when the government wants to spend it.

And every little helps. It all adds up. Including the proposed £3,000 pay rise for MPs (meanwhile, New Zealand's MPs took a pay cut to help out during the pandemic...). HS2 will make a difference. It's costing billions - to shave just 20 minutes off the journey using what will be obselete technology. (That said, there's an argument for HS2 - if it's genuinely creating lots of sustainable job opportunities.)

@frasersmummy

There are approx 1278 hospitals in the uk.. And 4323 in hospital with covid

That works out at less than 4 cases per hospital

Should some of the 277 Covid + patients from Merseyside be moved to the hospitals that don't have any, such as The Royal Cornwall in Truro?

Hospitals have been divided into Covid-free such as Winchester, and those who have Covid wards.

Hospital admissions are only 10-20% of cases. The other 80-90% are out and about spreading it.

And the many more people who will be in hospital and dying in a few weeks have already been infected.

The spread is still exponential, just doubling slower than in March.

@DilemmaDerby

Wiseup we could reduce the expense of government to pay for it? I mean it’s never happen but y’know...

Ah well. That's where New Zealand (again) leads the way. Their MPs took a pay cut to help the country cope with the pandemic.

Meanwhile here in the UK our MPs are proposing a pay rise for themselves...

[quote RedToothBrush]@sheepandcow

The NW isn't the area with the least beds per person.

That honour falls to Mid Wales I believe. Which has the added issue of being more remote.

Hence why the welsh government has intervened earlier and with a no one in or out policy.[/quote]
The Welsh government is very sensibly acting proactively rather then shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted.

However, when it comes to vulnerability, it was always going to be larger urban areas most at risk. More people = fast easy spread. That's why London was so badly hit in March and April. Millions of people in high density housing.

Cities including Manchester and Liverpool will be more at risk than rural areas. This is why the south west and east of England have been less affected. More sparsely populated and more spread out.

I'll try to find the reports about this from SAGE and the ONS.

I've posted this before as people need to read up on economics.

Do you know just how very little of the economy relies on PAYE tax ?
Many, many jobs are so poorly paid, workers pay no tax at all.
Government debt is not like household debt- it is a sign of a strong economy.

If a country can't borrow money it is generally because it is seen as a failed state with no ability to ever repay.
The government was able to bail the banks out in 2008.
They could pay everyone a basic minimum income tomorrow so no one would be in poverty.
It's a choice.

If our unemployment figures go through the roof we might also go on the IMF watch list. That's why dishi rishi blinked at the last and extended furlough. The money is there to fund all of it.

@iskwobel

The government may not be dependent on income tax, but millions of people unemployed means millions of people also not paying national insurance, slashing their discretionary spending (so not paying VAT) or supporting businesses (which then won’t be being corporation tax).

And people unemployed or fearing for their jobs will not be buying houses and paying stamp duty.

Your Corbyn-es que fantasy economics is not quite as simple as it seems.

@iskwobel

I've posted this before as people need to read up on economics.

Do you know just how very little of the economy relies on PAYE tax ?
Many, many jobs are so poorly paid, workers pay no tax at all.
Government debt is not like household debt- it is a sign of a strong economy.

If a country can't borrow money it is generally because it is seen as a failed state with no ability to ever repay.
The government was able to bail the banks out in 2008.
They could pay everyone a basic minimum income tomorrow so no one would be in poverty.
It's a choice.

If our unemployment figures go through the roof we might also go on the IMF watch list. That's why dishi rishi blinked at the last and extended furlough. The money is there to fund all of it.

Good well explained post.

@ecosse
All the more reason to take proactive measures to contain Covid. All the countries who've done so have better functioning healthier economies.

@Ecosse I've cut and paste from another thread so maybe it's not clear. The government can't let unemployment soar as they won't be able to borrow to fund current NHS spend therefore they will need to support individuals and industry through this. There is no other way for them as it will be impossible to keep the economy open at anything like a sustainable rate unless they get the pandemic under control. VAT is currently suspended. Businesses in hospitality and retail are barely breaking even except for online and grocery.
Without confidence however investment and the stock market in general falls and thus GDP.
Big problem for the government at the moment is the conflict between the libertarian /right wing voices who want to let market forces and the virus run through society, and the reality which needs central command and control to avoid some very grim scenes.
It would be great if I felt they had the competence to manage this.
Corbynista LOL 😂

My advice to the government would be to sell bonds and basically to anyone who has money to invest at present to buy them, hold on to them screamingly tight for the next few years then sell once we are through this

@StatisticalSense

Conscription shouldn't have been the first option but the reason it needs to be considered are the large number of qualified nurses, who are either happily working their part time hours and who are unwilling to work a single second of overtime or who aren't working in any capacity despite being able to do so, who chose not to volunteer for extra duties when the carrot was offered so now need to be brought into the fold using the stick. When the country pays (I realise a small number of the most recently qualified were not funded) for your education for the good of society and you refuse to use that education to your full capability when it could save lives during a global pandemic you are being extremely selfish.

“ Unwilling to work a single second of overtime “ what planet are you on ? We work many, many hours of unpaid overtime, for some nurses and doctors that happens every shift. Last lockdown many of my colleagues risked their lives every day ‘ for the good of society ‘, often having to part from their families. As to the rest of your post, it’s too ridiculous to address.

@StatisticalSense what was the carrot that you mentioned?
Free pizza?

I know where I work we work unpaid for some of each shift. It might be only 30 minutes but it’s often hours. Usually because there is no nurse to hand the keys to. Then we are told that we can’t stay because it’s dangerous but in the same breath we can’t go, because it’s dangerous.

Lots of people in different jobs work unpaid hours. We are no different, we can’t give what we haven’t got!

Ecosse - how much is brexit costing? Gulf war, WW2. Hs2...

It will require big changes to society, but it is not insurmountable.