What happens when the hospitals reach capacity?

[rainytreeleaves]

Just reading about NI nearly reaching bed capacity and a few places in the north as well. Hospital in Londonderry saying they are in a worse state than in the spring.

The hospital that I work in has been on black alert all week. The covid ward is full, no other wards can be repurposed as everywhere is full and (from tracing they believe) community transmission and via asymptomatic staff, there is a mass outbreak on our care of the elderly ward. Lots of staff self isolating so unsafe shifts and lots of patients infected. Also those elderly patients aren't now leaving to free beds up and no elderly patients can be admitted there for specialist input. It's a total mess.

Our local nightingale can't open as they don't have anyone to staff it. They are literally begging people throughout our region to go on the bank to staff it but there's not enough trained staff available.

I'm just not sure what will happen next....we are worse now than the spring. Slightly less covid so far but much greater bed need in general and more general transmission throughout making working really difficult.

How many weeks do people think we have until hospitals are really struggling?

2 weeks.

statistical
Has it occurred to you that there might be a reason why many nurses are part time
you know
stupid stuff like

• child care
• parent care
• their own health

or does COVID screw everything else ?

Worried I feel the same. Everything around me going as normal but as Im vulnerable and obese I'm anxious. But don't want to remove kids from school/activities for my health. Yet.

My heart is racing. Lockdown I can do. Whatever it takes.

But these numbers racing out of control again is terrifying me. This level of fear again...

Why can't people just stop being stupid & blasé, schools & uni's need to close.

We CANNOT just let this run. We really can't or all of these kids everyone wants in schools are going to be mourning the loss of not just grandparents, but parents, aunties,uncles,cousins,siblings,teachers and friends.

People who think it's only killing people already on their death beds need to open their eyes!!

@StatisticalSense

Conscription shouldn't have been the first option but the reason it needs to be considered are the large number of qualified nurses, who are either happily working their part time hours and who are unwilling to work a single second of overtime or who aren't working in any capacity despite being able to do so, who chose not to volunteer for extra duties when the carrot was offered so now need to be brought into the fold using the stick. When the country pays (I realise a small number of the most recently qualified were not funded) for your education for the good of society and you refuse to use that education to your full capability when it could save lives during a global pandemic you are being extremely selfish.

What the fuck? What do you do for a living @StatisticalSense?

There are approx 1278 hospitals in the uk.. And 4323 in hospital with covid

That works out at less than 4 cases per hospital

But isn't the issue that once Covud cases come into our hospitals, wards need to be closed off for them, People in ICU on life support machines need to be isolated in their own space, thus reducing the units and space to others.

And the numbers will continue to grow, so it just puts pressure on all other services and with no clear plan still in place 6 months on , we will just continue to see people die and struggle from other illnesses and diseases.

The problem we have where I work is that we actually only have 2 patients currently in with Covid (down from 5 last week as we have discharged and not admitted more plus we have sent one patient for ECMO). But we have lost an entire ward for a Covid ward and about a quarter of remaining beds and emergency admissions capacity to socially distance. In March/April hardly anyone was presenting to emergency departments so we had plenty of capacity but now we have same numbers but fewer beds. It's not the number of patients with Covid but the lack of beds for the others. In addition staff self isolating because of symptoms or symptoms of family members mean it's a constant struggle to safely staff wards.

Covid not Covud

They could start by making half term 4 weeks and really hammering home the need to stay home! Essential shops only & as infrequently as possible etc etc.

I do hope the government don’t just plough in and let this run it’s course it’s schools open throughout

I'm in the South. We need it here BEFORE it gets worse, not waiting until it gets as bad as it is currently up North. Do they not fucking learn?

Yes lockdown is hard on families/businesses - death is worse.

Sproutsandparsnips
You've explained that really well.
Our hospital is the same. A whole covid ward with 2 patients and empty beds, an ICU with 2 covid patients, isolated and double staffed due to time taken for PPE etc (if cases increase again there just won't be the capacity for double staff!).

I agree MJMG the problem is though there are so many Covid deniers around. I think the government are really stuck cos even in the north people are saying the refuse to be locked down again. And to do a lockdown you really need the public on side. Unfortunately everyone seems to have very short memories.

I can’t believe schools etc still open in Northern Ireland.

In France when hospitals got full up in some regions they transported patients out to less affected areas where there was hospital capacity- they sent them from Paris to Brittany by train.

Your post is really unpleasant @StatisticalSense
Unless you work in the nhs, you have absolutely no idea about how people worked in the 1st wave. Many people volunteered to work additional (often unpaid) hours and volunteered to work in ITU after an upskill session (!). There was people who hadn't worked in the nhs for a number of years looking after ventilated patients. NHS workers leaving the family home for months so they could continue to work but protect vulnerable family members. Many of us are terrified about the upcoming months and could well do without posts like yours.

NI is at a disadvantage to the rest of the UK as limited hospitals with ICU facilities. At least here we can and do if needed move patients hundreds of miles around although it's not ideal.

Sprouts, thanks that was really clear , that the sort of thing the public need to know because I had no clue

I live in county Derry, we are in a vulnerable
Position . An all island approach is needed but as usual in this country politics doesn’t allow. And to be honest conservative governments never cared about us historically. I fear for us here, the figures are so high compared to the spirit of Ireland.

@Pomegranatespompom

Your post is really unpleasant *@StatisticalSense* Unless you work in the nhs, you have absolutely no idea about how people worked in the 1st wave. Many people volunteered to work additional (often unpaid) hours and volunteered to work in ITU after an upskill session (!). There was people who hadn't worked in the nhs for a number of years looking after ventilated patients. NHS workers leaving the family home for months so they could continue to work but protect vulnerable family members. Many of us are terrified about the upcoming months and could well do without posts like yours.

Nurses worked hard before covid - the NHS has been underfunded and understaffed for years.

I'd ignore silly things like people even suggesting conscription.

@Pomegranatespompom
The fact that a lot of NHS staff have stepped up to the plate makes the attitude of the staff members who have decided that it is someone else's problem even more disgusting. I simply do not understand how anyone who decided to train as a nurse can sit and watch people needlessly die so that their partner doesn't have to do a minute of extra childcare or other put themselves in any way (these are largely also the staff who made a massive deal about being keyworkers when it came to childcare and discounts at the height of the first wave while others were using schools as little as possible and too busy working to make use of the discounts available).

If we had a total "circuit break" lockdown from tomorrow, wouldn't hospital admissions still continue to increase over the next two-three weeks as some of the people who are currently incubating the virus become ill?

How long does it take for measures to begin to take effect?

@StatisticalSense

Conscription shouldn't have been the first option but the reason it needs to be considered are the large number of qualified nurses, who are either happily working their part time hours and who are unwilling to work a single second of overtime or who aren't working in any capacity despite being able to do so, who chose not to volunteer for extra duties when the carrot was offered so now need to be brought into the fold using the stick. When the country pays (I realise a small number of the most recently qualified were not funded) for your education for the good of society and you refuse to use that education to your full capability when it could save lives during a global pandemic you are being extremely selfish.

The reason many nurses work part time is because the workforce is largely made up of women and so are more likely to be the main carer for children. @StatisticalSense who do you propose will look after their children and pay the added cost of childcare when they are forced to work full time?

I honestly think some people make comments suggesting ridiculousness like conscription is just to stir things up. I don't believe any thinks that is an actual option.