Transmission rates of the virus in primary schools??

[Sb2012]

What do you think the transmission rate is like amongst primary school children? When schools reopened I was convinced there would be lots of primary school children off within weeks with the virus, however it seems like it’s secondary schools that have the most cases.
I am in the north east where cases are very high. Both mine go to different primary schools and in my 10 year olds school there have been 2 children (siblings) who have tested positive so far and 3 members of staff. There doesn’t seem to be any evidence to suggest the staff passed on the virus to the 2 students it appears they contracted the virus out of school
My 8 year olds school has had at least 8 cases, but amongst staff only.
Then I have a primary school aged niece and in her school there have been no cases amongst students only 1 staff member.
Our local secondary schools have a lot more positive cases amongst students and there has been evidence of transmission in peer groups too.
What are the primary schools like where you live? Do you think primary school kids are not passing the virus on as fast as older kids?

If a parent tests positive don’t the kids and whole family who live to gather also isolate for 14 days?
I’m just trying to figure out if primary kids are catching the virus, but as they don’t get the same symptoms they don’t test so go unnoticed and we assume they are ok. However, kids would still be going back home to their parents and if they were giving it to their parents then the parents would more likely have symptoms and be testing positive. If they are positive wouldn’t they be required to keep their kids at home for 14 days anyway? However from what I know around my area attendance for primary school kids is stable.

Here’s the last seven days. Very low.

@Sb2012

If that were the case the randomised sampling conducted by the ONS (where people are tested regularly regardless of whether they have symptoms) would show the increase in infection in the primary school age range.

My children go to an all through school and there have been two cases in the senior section but none in the primary, despite the fact that some of the senior subject teachers also teach in the primary.

[quote Sunshinegirl82]@Sb2012

If that were the case the randomised sampling conducted by the ONS (where people are tested regularly regardless of whether they have symptoms) would show the increase in infection in the primary school age range.[/quote]
However, IIRC there is an issue in that testing is done in a time window when children are at school, meaning that younger ages are now unlikely to be being included properly in the sample?

I may be wrong, so apologies in advance if i have remembered that incorrectly.

@cantkeepawayforever

That might be an issue some of the time (although I think it's only been the odd report rather than a recognised issue) but provided there are some children being tested you should still get a decent indication on whether rates are increasing/static/declining.

We recieved an invitation for the ONS study for our 9yp DD yesterday. She has refused. I do wonder I that's a common thing amongst her age group.... They are old enough to refuse, but not old enough to understand why the random testing is necessary.

According to this Professor on sage evidence suggesting primary school children 1/4-1/2 less likely to catch it and less likely to spread it.

If young children were spreading it asymptpmatically then I would expect the positive cases in the age ranges 25 - 44 to be a lot higher than they are.

Even if children were not tested due to lack of symptoms you would not necessarily expect the parents to be superspreaders.

Whilst young children can catch it and spread it, the data does seem to back up the claim that young children do not spread it as much.

That should read you would not expect parents to be asymptomatic as much.

@Glitterynails

I think there will be lots of asymptomatic children in primary. The idea that it’s only those with a cough or temp is very misleading. It will be very interesting to see what happens when the weather is colder and we can’t keep windows open....

What do you mean can’t keep the windows open? Mine are staying open if we all have to wear polar gear. When they tell me to shut them I’ll be walking. They can find someone else to experiment on.

@Timeforanotherusername

If young children were spreading it asymptpmatically then I would expect the positive cases in the age ranges 25 - 44 to be a lot higher than they are.

Even if children were not tested due to lack of symptoms you would not necessarily expect the parents to be superspreaders.

Whilst young children can catch it and spread it, the data does seem to back up the claim that young children do not spread it as much.

Yes this would be a good way to try and get a rough idea how contagious primary school kids are with the virus.

@JS87

According to this Professor on sage evidence suggesting primary school children 1/4-1/2 less likely to catch it and less likely to spread it.

Thanks this is reassuring

@GreyishDays

Here’s the last seven days. Very low.

This is reassuring to see that cases are very low in primary school kids at least, but this may still be because a lot of kids don’t really have symptoms that would meet the requirements for testing despite having the virus. Unless some ideas cases are from randomly checking primary school kids regardless of symptoms.

Also with this data there is still no clue as to whether they pass it on to parents and grandparents as easily as older kids or adults.

Having had to swab my somewhat resistant 10 year old's nostrils and tonsils, I don't think testing primary age children will produce very accurate results. I have two friends whose kids were swabbed by medical professionals in hospital and they both said the nose swab made the kids' eyes water it was so far up. Very difficult for parents to do that. There is no way I could do it well enough to get a reliable result and I'm sure it's harder with younger kids.

We probably need to keep an eye on staff infection rates and at the moment I haven't heard that they are particularly high in primary schools. It is definitely easier to keep primary bubbles separate, although near impossible to distance within the classroom.

@Sb2012

The ONS is doing exactly that. Checking a large number of people regularly regardless of whether they have symptoms. They produce a weekly report that I have linked to. Those tests are not done by parents but by testers that come to the house so should be reasonably accurate. Levels have always been, and remain, low in primary school aged children.

Parents are not informed of a positive unless your child has had close contact. Guidelines changed so whole bubbles don't need to be sent home now. Even us staff are not told which child has tested positive.

I have two DC, one yr2 in a small primary school the other in yr7 at a secondary school with around 900 students. Neither schools have reported any cases as yet. The way the secondary school is dealing with it is very different to the other secondary schools in the area - the yr7s are lucky enough to be in a building on their own so no mixing with other years and they stay in the same classroom with the same students all day and have the teachers come to them. It's almost like still being in primary school for them I think apart from th teacher changing three times a day (they are doing double lessons to minimise the amount of staff they have in there each day).

And I think we would be told if there were a case - we had a message saying there had been a case of chicken pox in the yr7 bubble the other week so be on the look out for symptoms.

[quote Sunshinegirl82]@Sb2012

The ONS is doing exactly that. Checking a large number of people regularly regardless of whether they have symptoms. They produce a weekly report that I have linked to. Those tests are not done by parents but by testers that come to the house so should be reasonably accurate. Levels have always been, and remain, low in primary school aged children.

[/quote]
Does the ONS data have confidence intervals for each age group? If a falling number are being swabbed since the return to school, then the confidence intervals would naturally be widening.

[quote Sunshinegirl82]@Sb2012

The ONS is doing exactly that. Checking a large number of people regularly regardless of whether they have symptoms. They produce a weekly report that I have linked to. Those tests are not done by parents but by testers that come to the house so should be reasonably accurate. Levels have always been, and remain, low in primary school aged children.

[/quote]
Thanks for that, didn’t realise that’s how they were collected data.

@cantkeepawayforever

I posted a link to the most recent report up thread so you can review the data.

Most of the families I know with primary school aged children gave had nasty colds recently, but when the adults caught the illness from the kids, they also had the symptoms of a nasty cold. I spent three days last week barely able to get out of bed, but didn't have Covid symptoms. So I think that the apparent spate of minor illnesses in children is exactly that, rather than a particularly mild and highly contagious strain of Covid.

@VirginiaWolverine that’s a relief to hear, hopefully it is the common cold spreading through my bubble too!

The answer is that no one really knows. There haven't been huge outbreaks in primary schools but if they are largely asymptomatic then it's possible that a large percentage of a year could catch it without our knowing.

The good news is that it seems primary children are also less infectious then adults.