What's the chance of catching it if...

[PennyDreadfuI]

...the only places you go are supermarkets (maybe three times a week), no public transport, and no prolonged contact with anyone outside your household?

This is how we're currently living - we're in a lockdown area but we don't have any family or friends anyway, so we haven't really had any contact beyond people we walk past in supermarkets for months. DH is wfh, I don't work and DD lost her job at the start of lockdown and hasn't found anything else so she's going out even less than me. We all SD when we're out, are fastidious about hygiene and DH and DD wear masks in public (I'm exempt).

As I understand it, you need to spend a good few minutes in fairly close contact with someone who's infected to catch it, and none of us have done that for ages. We're in a high risk area and I'm higher risk myself (autoimmune condition) - our rate locally is over 300 per 100,000 and I'm even more concerned now than I was in April. I've been quite calm about everything so far actually, but in the last few days my anxiety has rocketed. So, sorry for the inane questions! Just trying to reassure myself really.

Low as risk as you can be no one can say zero risk but you are not far off. Try and chill about it.

There was a thread a couple of days ago about adding up your risks, which included going to pub, restaurant, shopping, going to the gym, having people round etc., which basically said the less you do, the less chance you have of contracting the virus. My husband and do not work, but our 2 adult sons do and whilst they feel safe where they work, I am terrified of them catching it and terrified that my husband and I will catch it. We are having 2 relatives round tomorrow as we are worried about them not going out, we haven’t seen them since March, but I expect that will be the last time we see them for a while. We have shopping delivered and are only going out to walk our dog. We have noticed this last week we hardly see anyone out and the only time it gets busy is people on school runs. My husband had heart surgery in May, so we have to be careful for as long as it takes, so we aren’t taking any chances.

Very low risk I would have thought.

My DD tested positive and DH and I have managed to avoid catching it despite sharing a house. Obviously she's spent all her time (including meals) in her room and we don't share a bathroom. Only a couple of days until our 14 days of self isolation left.

Like you we don't go out a lot, only odd bits of shopping but DD caught from the child she looks after for a few hours after school (who in turn caught it from a fellow pupil).

Slim chance, but we now know it can remain in the air and infect that way. The fact that masks are now worn by most indoors reduces the chances of the load being enough to infect you this way, but if someone was without a mask, infected, and walking agead of you in the supermarket, it’s possible you’d get it. Still, it’d have to be the perfect chain of events and that’s unlikely.

From what I’ve read it’s the bigger events that are still causing the spread.

(I’m also terrified by the way. So I don’t mean to scare you! The chances are still very slim, and if you do catch it you’ll more than likely he just fine, as will the majority)

Dh went to a pub the other week, his first time out since March, apart from work. He caught covid. He wore his mask, hand sanitised, sat in a booth. His friend didn't get it.

We're at a loss with it all

Thank you so much all for replying. The infection rate has shot up to 459 here now, but you've all managed to calm me down a bit.

@WhatHaveIFound thank goodness you've managed to avoid it - I hope DD wasn't too poorly with it.

@frozendaisy that's good advice. I do need to chill a bit, definitely!

@ssd hope your DH isn't too floored and gets well soon.

@ssd

Dh went to a pub the other week, his first time out since March, apart from work. He caught covid. He wore his mask, hand sanitised, sat in a booth. His friend didn't get it.

We're at a loss with it all

I think that's the problem for those who've been shut away, they're prey for viruses as soon as they emerge.

I didn't go anywhere bar the supermarket from March until August. Then I went to the pub and the next day I had a cold.

Very low I'd have thought. Since July I've been going out to work (can't WFH), DS going to school, meeting family and friends, cinema, pubs, bars, restaurants, the zoo, trampoline park, a weekend away in a hotel, using buses and trains (I can't drive).

We haven't caught Covid, or if we have we've been completely asymptomatic.

Thanks @PennyDreadfuI, she's feeling much better now. First five days she had a headache and tired but none of the typical symptoms. Now just a bit bored of being stuck at home.

They weren't testing at anywhere near the rate we are now in april. Im doing similar to you and think I'd be very unlucky to catch it.

Thanks @PennyDreadfuI

He's just got a bad cough and a wheeze but feels not bad otherwise

@ssd

Dh went to a pub the other week, his first time out since March, apart from work. He caught covid. He wore his mask, hand sanitised, sat in a booth. His friend didn't get it.

We're at a loss with it all

How does he know it came from the pub? Did T and T contact him or did he get too close to someone?

Well Nottingham is 400 in 100,000 cases for example, which sounds like a lot until you realise that if there were 1000 people in front of you, then only 4 would actually have test positive.
Everyone’s individual risk is small, the risk that is hyped is the risk to the whole population, which is really what governments worry about.
However in your case OP I would be far more worried about risks to your family’s mental health, especially your daughter’s.
There is no little point in worrying about dying, if all you are living for is worrying about dying!

well, i havent been out of the house since Feb. but I had to get my eye checked the other day at the optitcians, everyone wore a mask and so did I but now I have a really bad headache and a sore throat, not happy

I'm not surprised your mental health is suffering Op. You've been stuck inside isolating since March (apart from visiting supermarket). I think anyone in that situation would lose perspective. How is your dd coping? Is she in touch with friends? You say you have no family. It sounds incredibly lonely and tough and I hope you can get out more once your local lockdown is lifted?

To rationalise for you, your chances of catching the virus are tiny, the chances of developing complications if you do have it are tiny. You can look at the statistical probabilities online if that would help.

Who knows?
We are in our 60s, dh works. We go to the gym, restaurants, bars, galleries, shops and supermarkets. We wear masks.
Life is going on as much as possible for us.

I'm a shielder and started a thread recently about my fears of going into a room where others had been before me to get my flu jab. I was annoyed with my DH because he could have booked me in earlier but chose a later appointment. I know the timing wouldn't make a lot of difference but when you have poor health you feel So much of your life is out of control as it is.

I got my arse kicked into the middle of next week!! I did what I was told and apologised to my DH. 😝😝😝

I do worry about the airborne effect and I read that masks Do not protect the wearer it is other people's masks that protect other wearers so we are very much dependent on others wearing their masks properly. My Dh does not believe in airborne so we are at odds there.

I did the shielding standing on my head. It's when I have to go out into environments I get nervous.

My health is such that I would stand very little chance of surviving COVID.

At least my flu jab next month will be in a clinical setting so that is something but yes I hear your anxieties and I hope you get some comfort here. I will look and see if there is a board for people like us or maybe we could start one? 🌺🌺

According to statistical data, the chances of a person in the UK catching corona virus are 44 million to one. Your chances of dying are 1 in a million.

@SmileyClare

According to statistical data, the chances of a person in the UK catching corona virus are 44 million to one. Your chances of dying are 1 in a million.

That is reassuring!

Is that because we know more about transmission? Were the govt just being over-cautious in making me a shielder?

I feel we get so many mixed messages

@SmileyClare

According to statistical data, the chances of a person in the UK catching corona virus are 44 million to one. Your chances of dying are 1 in a million.

Logically, this cannot be correct, the population of the UK is estimated to be just under 68 million people...

This 1 in 44 million chance of catching Covid statement is false and misleading.

It comes from ONS statistics that state that 0.44 people per 10,000 people caught Covid per day between 7 - 13 August 2020 August ie 44 new cases per million people per day.

The ONS statistics show that the infection rate (ie the risk of catching Covid) was around 1 in 2200 in the same week 7 - 13 August 2020. Link below.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/englandandwales21august2020

I just googled Chances of catching covid UK and there were a couple of articles by statisticians and a report in the Telegraph. That's based on the current cases identified by testing against the UK population.

Obviously, the chances would increase or decrease depending on lifestyle (e.g. a nurse working on a covid ward versus a shielding person, or a person living in a higher risk area where R =1 or just above), so just a blunt average.

Hmm that's quite a difference in odds then disappointed. I was just quoting from the article I read. I think the odds are still reassuring for someone like the Op who has slightly lost sight of the actual risks?
I'm not an expert in statistics by any means though!

44 million to one is rather different to one in 44 million. Not overwhelmed with confidence in someone who mixes up the two. And using stats from August doesn’t really help.

Here’s a useful chart though OP.

I would always be wary of believing people on threads who purport to have caught covid here, there and everywhere. It's funny how some of them claim to have caught it from shopping (absolutely minuscule chance) or from "one trip out". There seem to be an awful lot of very unlucky MNetters

I am fairly gullible, but a while ago I read on MN a poster proclaiming they knew someone and saying things about them. And I KNEW for an absolute fact that it was a downright lie! At that point I realised that some people sit there at the keyboard and type complete falsehoods. To me that is really weird, but I suppose the internet attracts all sorts...

Anyway, I think the best thing to do is to watch daily cases in your area very carefully. If there are few, then you can venture out a bit; if there are many, don that hazmat suit!