What's the chance of catching it if...

[PennyDreadfuI]

...the only places you go are supermarkets (maybe three times a week), no public transport, and no prolonged contact with anyone outside your household?

This is how we're currently living - we're in a lockdown area but we don't have any family or friends anyway, so we haven't really had any contact beyond people we walk past in supermarkets for months. DH is wfh, I don't work and DD lost her job at the start of lockdown and hasn't found anything else so she's going out even less than me. We all SD when we're out, are fastidious about hygiene and DH and DD wear masks in public (I'm exempt).

As I understand it, you need to spend a good few minutes in fairly close contact with someone who's infected to catch it, and none of us have done that for ages. We're in a high risk area and I'm higher risk myself (autoimmune condition) - our rate locally is over 300 per 100,000 and I'm even more concerned now than I was in April. I've been quite calm about everything so far actually, but in the last few days my anxiety has rocketed. So, sorry for the inane questions! Just trying to reassure myself really.

(shopping as in home delivery, I should have made clear)

SmileyClare that claim is discussed here www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000mb06 at 6 minutes by the statistician who wrote it and admits it was an error. That was the daily risk of covid, but obviously each day you face that risk and the rates now are substantially higher than they were in the summer. I would have thought in OP's case the risk is low.

@SmileyClare

I'm not surprised your mental health is suffering Op. You've been stuck inside isolating since March (apart from visiting supermarket). I think anyone in that situation would lose perspective. How is your dd coping? Is she in touch with friends? You say you have no family. It sounds incredibly lonely and tough and I hope you can get out more once your local lockdown is lifted?

To rationalise for you, your chances of catching the virus are tiny, the chances of developing complications if you do have it are tiny. You can look at the statistical probabilities online if that would help.

I'm overweight with an autoimmune condition so I'm at higher risk of complications if I got Covid. I know someone in his 40s with the same condition as me who died in April from Covid, that really brought it home.

DD has no friends either (none of us do). So we don't see/spend any time with anyone else anyway, lockdown or not. Yes, it's incredibly lonely and tough at the best of times - it sounds strange, but one of the things I'm thankful for is that we have nobody to 'miss', if the makes sense. I haven't had a proper conversation with anyone other than DH or DD for years (aside from shop staff/doctors etc).

You're right - being so insular it is easy to dwell on things.

Me and DH have no family near or friends either. I am living for my pets. When they go, I will care much less about my health.

47.09%

Sorry for quoting some incorrect stats. I stand corrected! Statistics can be calculated in a certain way to support an argument so can be misleading.
I still think the take away message Op is that your chances are incredibly low, you're taking every precaution and I hope you find reassurance in that.

I'm sorry about the death of a young man you know, that must have been a shock. Even with underlying conditions, a death of a young person is incredibly rare. I agree that you are probably dwelling on things by living in such an insular way. It must be easy to feel "consumed" by the pandemic. Try not to let it dominate your thoughts.

I don't know if you have any techniques to manage your anxiety but I find some simple mindfulness methods really helpful in taking you out of your thoughts. Any task you enjoy that you can absorb yourself in; exercise even knitting or colouring in , online yoga (get dd involved?) are easy to make part of your day.

It's really important to protect your mental health.

@MsWarrensProfession what is the source for that chart, please? It would be really useful for me if it is from a reliable source. Thanks!

It’s from an article in the Lancet about risk communication. I don’t think it’s completely copper bottomed and unarguable but it’s really well laid out. I’ll try and find the link and get back to you.

Here you go
www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3223
BMJ not the Lancet. It’s good enough for a non-specialist Mumsnet thread and it’s a great communication tool about the general risk factors, but I’m not sure it’s super solid: apart from anything else it doesn’t define what constitutes “well ventilated” or “high occupancy”.

@MsWarrensProfession

Here you go www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3223 BMJ not the Lancet. It’s good enough for a non-specialist Mumsnet thread and it’s a great communication tool about the general risk factors, but I’m not sure it’s super solid: apart from anything else it doesn’t define what constitutes “well ventilated” or “high occupancy”.

Thank you so much for posting this.

I could have come up with that, and I have a C in O Level Biology as the extent of my scientific achievements...

Crowded and shouting = risky

Outdoors and silent = not very risky

As MrsWarrensProfession says, no detail is given on what constitutes high occupancy or well ventilated. I did read that old-fashioned, cheap, wall-mounted air conditioning units like the one in the aforementioned restaurant in China are good conduits, whereas plane air filtration systems are much less risky.

Thanks, that's really helpful @MsWarrensProfession