How can we argue with the facts?

[VenusTiger]

If we look at the data and see it for what it truly is, how can we argue with it? Why are we following conjecture? Why are we still listening to Ferguson? This v.short video wraps it up for me.

A 15-minute video is not 'v short'. A 1-minute video is 'v short'.

Can you summarise the 'facts' from it that you want to discuss? I'm not investing 15 minutes of my life in what is potentially yet another baseless conspiracy theory.

Anyone can post anything on YouTube.

If it's on a certifiable platform perhaps.

I million dead worldwide.

10 times more lethal than a bad flu mutation.

Those are the facts.

I take this virus seriously.

(Sorry, but I haven't watched the video, it's too long)

Even the video still looks cranky as anything.

That video isn't about facts, it's pseudoscience and cherry picking to support a narrative. That's not how science works and if you want facts then does it not make sense to get them from epidemiologists, virologists, immunologists, public health policy experts, medical experts etc rather than random people on YouTube?

What do you mean by 10x more lethal?

I suppose the facts vary considering how the person is presenting these facts.
Tbh, I'm skeptical of any figures I've heard. Still fewer dying of covid than other deaths. It's a about 23rd in the list of deaths in the UK.
Doing my bit, but not getting worked up about flu.

Why covid is more lethal than flu

this was cited by

National Geographic

(This scientific account thinks the difference between covid and flu is even greater than I suggested, there are different ways to look at the figures).

Still, the point is that I would take covid very seriously.

There are many ways cases are being reported and goal posts changed to suit government, so we have no idea how many people have died from the disease, I would think far fewer than flu.
Changing the goal posts has just been a political maneuver to take away from other things happening, and so many people have been sucked in, such a shame they can't think for themselves.

Ahhh Ivor Cummins. He claims the epidemic is over. You might like to read this, OP:

sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/index.php?title=Cummins-2020-09-08

Because facts are still subjective as much as we like to think that they are.

Because lets take the National Geographic Article which states:

In other words, between 1 and 10 in 100,000 people who get the flu will die, but between 500 and 1,000 in 100,000 people who get COVID-19 will pass away.

Which gives Covid on this basis a mortality rate of between 0.5-1%

Some will read that and think oh gosh that is a lot of people this is very serious we must do all we can to stop it

And others will read that and say well actually that isnt a huge amount why are we bothering.

And that is really the most dangerous thing about this it has always been Schrodinger virus because it is both. It is far more dangerous that normal flu but isnt anything like as dangerous as Bird Flu/Ebola etc.

It has a high enough mortality rate for those who take it seriously to be right, it also has a low enough mortality rate for the arguments that we need to make sure we protect everything else

And that is its true danger and the reason why there is no clear way through this

1 million worldwide deaths is a lot

however, the world's population continues to rise - so far by more than 62 million this year

www.worldometers.info/world-population/

It is far more dangerous that normal flu but isnt anything like as dangerous as Bird Flu/Ebola etc.

covid is much more liable to spread from one person to another than Ebola

@herecomesthsun I think I was trying to say if either of those two became pandemics in which case Ebola would be spreading efficiently from person to person

But the point still stands (and what you are saying actually backs it up) COVID is in this no mans land in that it is dangerous (highly infectious and a far higher mortality rate than flu) and not dangerous enough for people to want to lockdown and hide for the next year or so.

And that is what makes it incredibly dangerous and difficult to deal with

Ebola R number 1.5 -2

www.livescience.com/64727-measles-contagious.html#:~:text=Ebola%2C%20which%20spread%20across%20Guinea,2%2C%20NPR%20reported%20that%20year.

unrestricted, covid has a higher R number

If COVID 19 is nothing to worry about, then offer your help to support those who are ill with Covid 19.

The video is not a conspiracy theory, barely a theory but shows graphs with the figures on and compares to Whitty/Vallance conjecture. I don't understand why some of us don't want to know as much as possible - 15 mins video is v.short compared to an hour long Boris statement, a documentary etc. surely if you don't want to watch it, how can you discuss it?
I just don't understand that part at all. Do you go into a restaurant and pick the first thing on the menu without reading through the rest? If you don't agree with the video, that's fine, but at least you've seen the data from a different angle.

@Quartz2208 - excellent points!

Regardless of someone's view of risk, I'm getting a little bored of the conspiracy theorists stating that Sweden carried on as normal. They didn't; they have had many people working from home, extra precautions around care homes and extra social distancing precautions in other spaces, as well as people going out far less when cases increased. Stockholm has been most affected by cases and deaths because they have low population density in other parts of Sweden, far fewer of the UK population live in areas of low population density so the methods won't apply so well.

That video isn't short. I watched the first 5 minutes.

@herecomesthsun I am not sure what that has to do with the point that I am trying to make

@Oblomov20 bet you'll sit and watch the "news" for an hour though eh?

[quote VenusTiger]@Oblomov20 bet you'll sit and watch the "news" for an hour though eh?[/quote]
A video on YouTube is more reliable? Ok then. Got the measure.

Depends. Are we talking about real facts or rantings on YouTube that pander to people’s conformation bias?

David Icke used to pronounce that everyone should wear turquoise tracksuits and the world was all run by lizard people. Apparently the lizard people are still in on it all, now running covid interference, but now there's no uniforms for his fans. Can OP explain why the tracksuits aren't being brought back please? Is it just because he got fat?

[quote MRex]@Quartz2208 - excellent points!

Regardless of someone's view of risk, I'm getting a little bored of the conspiracy theorists stating that Sweden carried on as normal. They didn't; they have had many people working from home, extra precautions around care homes and extra social distancing precautions in other spaces, as well as people going out far less when cases increased. Stockholm has been most affected by cases and deaths because they have low population density in other parts of Sweden, far fewer of the UK population live in areas of low population density so the methods won't apply so well.[/quote]
I agree with you partially on the Sweden thing but I am also getting annoyed that people can't see that the data from Sweden does show us something useful. The main difference with Sweden is not what they did but the fact they had CONSISTENCY - their actions didn't change over time yet their infection rate increased for a while then dropped. Whether that was seasonality or immunity or something else who knows but there is something to be looked at there. With everywhere else you can't get any meaningful evidence on what works and what doesn't as governments are constantly changing things.

When the truth is too unpleasant to look at, I guess it's easier to believe lies.It totally makes sense; so yes Covid is trivial and it is a governmental thing to get us under control somehow.
So the dead people are fake dead or we're going to die anyway (true for the majority where I live)? The people with long term symptoms are psychosomatic?

It is scary to think that an invisible evil can kill us so we'd rather believe in anything else than this scary fact. I get it, but it doesn't make it right and shouldn't go unchallenged.