Coronavirus outbreaks in England spreading mostly in schools

[herecomesthsun]

Link here

I know it is what many of us have been predicting for some months, so an all too familiar topic.

However, I thought some of you, maybe especially teachers or those from vulnerable families, might be interested in having the article flaaged up.

[IloveJKRowling]

If it didn't spread via asymptomatic people then it would not have got outside of China.

The reason Ebola has not spread more widely is partly because it is more fatal.

So that is awful for the populations who are exposed to Ebola, but it acts as a barrier to it becoming a pandemic disease.

Coronavirus deaths, because of the fact it has spread worldwide, will far outstrip Ebola deaths (probably already have).

One of the academics at LSHTM who studied Ebola caught Covid-19 - he gave an interesting interview to Science - www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/finally-virus-got-me-scientist-who-fought-ebola-and-hiv-reflects-facing-death-covid-19 quote below
"I’m glad I had corona and not Ebola, although I read a scientific study yesterday that concluded you have a 30% chance of dying if you end up in a British hospital with COVID-19. That’s about the same overall mortality rate as for Ebola in 2014 in West Africa."

He also has some interesting things to say about the non-death outcomes from covid-19 (i.e. long covid).

[Janevaljane]

Yes, I was pointing out that Ebola is containable because it is so obvious.

[noblegiraffe]

10-19 age group now the group with the most infections.

[ceeveebee]

It would be more useful if the did 11-18 not 10-19, as that includes first year university students who account for well over half of infections in Manchester this week!

[NotQuiteHere]

ceeveebee
"It would be more useful if the did 11-18 not 10-19, as that includes first year university students who account for well over half of infections in Manchester this week!"

Let's wait for ONS survey, it shows infection rates for primary, secondary and university groups separately. And it is more accurate as it is based on random tests. The numbers above, I believe, are based on "official" free testing when someone shows symptoms and it most likely does not include uni students, because universities do private testing.

[ceeveebee]

Here we go - ONS numbers from today
Biggest increase in uni age, then secondary school and primary still very low
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/englandwalesandnorthernireland9october2020#age-analysis-of-the-number-of-people-in-england-who-had-covid-19

[noblegiraffe]

Technically Y12 and 13 are secondary school age but are included in the graph with uni students.

I wish they’d actually do the graphs usefully. They know where these kids are studying.

[ScaramoucheFandango]

Primary age does look low for positive tests in Scotland where they've been back since mid August.

[neveradullmoment99]

@BaronessEllaSaturday

I want schools to stay open. Closing them again will destroy my dd, the difference going back has made to her has been staggering. She can't cope with home learning as it just enforces what she is missing to her.

What? At all costs?
We are now seeing rising infections in my ds and dd's secondary. A class of 18 had to be sent home.
While I appreciate children get it 'mildly'' you have no idea on how it might affect your child in the long term.
Every single news article seems to avoid reporting on the alarming rise in cases in schools.
Its not just about the children. What about parents? I dont want to catch it from my child. It could mean [ worse case scenario] the loss of a mum or dad or them having long covid.
I grew up without my dad. I was just about to turn 7. He had a heart attack in his mid 50's. I do not wish this on anyone.

[neveradullmoment99]

@ScaramoucheFandango

Primary age does look low for positive tests in Scotland where they've been back since mid August.

We have no idea how many cases are in primary. They are largely asymptomatic.

[NotQuiteHere]

noblegiraffe:
"Technically Y12 and 13 are secondary school age but are included in the graph with uni students"

Not just uni students, the top border is at 24 years, not informative at all.

neveradullmoment99:
"We have no idea how many cases are in primary. They are largely asymptomatic"
That's the point of the data from ONS, it comes from random testing , symptomatic or not. The blurry curve is there because they are estimates obtained from a sample.

[ScaramoucheFandango]

Neverafullmoment it was positivity data from testing. Which did go sky high after a couple of weeks at school and colds spreading.

[neveradullmoment99]

Its only England too.

[ceeveebee]

Is the ONS report based solely on random samples, or do they build in anything around actual confirmed cases from pillar 2 as well?
Just wondering whether any student households would actually be included in the random sample at all (if they are all living in halls and no longer at their family homes etc)? I

[IloveJKRowling]

I grew up without my dad. I was just about to turn 7. He had a heart attack in his mid 50's. I do not wish this on anyone.

[Beebeeboo2]

Would the least worst option be to keep primary schools open so parents can work. Also rates are lower in under 15s.
Secondary schools blended learning with 2 days/week in school. Most don't need parents to stay home with them.
Universities to go remote as highest rates in 18-24?

[Autumngoldleaf]

Bee I don't know know why they didn't do that in the first place.

Secondary should be able to do blended learning.

[Autumngoldleaf]

We havant even hit bad weather yet

[Oaktree55]

My issue is there is no real data or surveillance in U.K. schools. Data which is being relied on isn’t imo robust (due to mild symptoms/testing issues kids flying under radar)

I’ve discovered Southampton Council in conjunction with the Uni and NHS are currently carrying out a research study involving several schools in Southampton where each pupil is saliva tested each day.

Southampton currently is around 45:100k so not very high but high enough to hopefully provide some decent results from the Study.

I’ll post back when results are public.

[Heartofstrings]

@StatisticalSense we do exactly this. Husband works 7am till 1pm. I work 1pm till 9pm. We are exhausted but it works. We have two preschoolers and their attendance has been shocking this term

[RationalOne]

I have just looked at the link and the information in the graph states:

"The graph shows 782 acute respiratory infection (ARI) incidents broke out in the past week. An ARI could be Covid-19, influenza or any other respiratory pathogen."

So a mix of Covid, Flu and other respiratory pathogens and not broken down into which ones!

[RationalOne]

[quote ceeveebee]Here we go - ONS numbers from today
Biggest increase in uni age, then secondary school and primary still very low
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/englandwalesandnorthernireland9october2020#age-analysis-of-the-number-of-people-in-england-who-had-covid-19[/quote]
Now this actual usable data is much more reliable that the stuff in the local newspaper as quoted by the OP with a mix of any old respiratory infections being recorded which is totally useless!

[RationalOne]

Furthermore, Chris Whitty showed data that confirmed that most increase in infections and most infections were in late teens and older and much small numbers in children and no deaths. So to the close the schools brigades not a chance for primary schools and even in the lower years in secondaries seem to be doing well when looking at actual data.

[RationalOne]

@ceeveebee

Indeed - it's almost as if someone wants to skew the data to shut the schools. University is adults and completely different!

It would be more useful if the did 11-18 not 10-19, as that includes first year university students who account for well over half of infections in Manchester this week!

[noblegiraffe]

Furthermore, Chris Whitty showed data that confirmed that most increase in infections and most infections were in late teens and older

If you look at the slides from the briefing, no he didn't. He didn't show a slide that showed how many infections there were in those age groups.

He did show a slide of test positivity rate, which is not the same thing at all, but seems to have given some people the impression that it is.