Anyone else think this seems far far worse than the first wave?

[XiCi]

I'm in the NW. When we locked down in March I didnt know a single person that had had the virus. I knew of one anecdotally, someone my mum knew of, that had it after a skiing trip in Italy. That's it. Now, virtually the whole of my extended family have had positive tests, friends, friends of friends, their families. It goes on and on. Its absolutely rife and just blazing through everyone. Just seems like noone will escape it. Although luckily, this hasnt translated into a high number of deaths so far, the virus just seems far more prevalent.

It's not worse. It just feels worse for you OP because you've been affected by it now.

We weren't testing community cases at all in March (and even NHS staff struggled to get tested in the timeframe and many cases were missed). Goodness knows how many people had Covid then. I certainly knew of a good few cases.

Now we are testing lots so we are finding cases - we are testing a biased sample (i.e. those with symptoms, those who are told to get a test from track and trace, and those working in high risk environments for transmission i.e. hospitals and care homes).

I was much much more worried in Feb, early march getting on public transport in a large city, with hordes of people returning from feb half term and rugby in Italy (because apparently you didn't have to self-isolate at all even with symptoms, as long as you didn't go to any of the 10 small listed towns).

I suspect in some parts of the UK, including London, many more people had Covid earlier on and the good news at the moment is that despite cases the death rate isn't particularly high

I think more people are getting tested now so know they've definitely had it / got it. I knew of a number of people who suspected they had it in March and April but no tests were freely available then.

I have a first year uni DS and in his halls (nothern uni in a hotspot) there are scores of cases. They have only been there a week and just in his building there are 27 cases, including his flat mate.

I probably should be worried but none of them are ill ill, they are mostly asymptomatic with the occasional fever present in some people - and testing has been rife.

Obviously I am friends with many parents of the same aged dc and it is the same elsewhere - at most of the northern unis at least. Sheffield, Manchester, Leeds, Liverpool, Edinburgh, Durham.

I think it will be over with in a few weeks, and hopefully there are no serious cases in that group and we have gone someway to build some community immunity. The rises in cases at the moment is likely to be highly influenced by the unis along with the excessive testing and all that brings (e.g. false positives when testing asymptomatic people)

ffs managed to delete my message before I posted it.

I too am in the NW on the edge of two areas with some of the highest rates in the country and I still know no-one who has definitely had it. Few friends thought they probably had it in Spring before community testing was available and another friend couldn't get a test in time last month. Closest I have is a colleague whose name I recognise but don't know (biggish public sector organisation) who apparently required hospitalisation briefly in May.

I'm wondering if the cases are quite localised within bigger areas or within sections of the community as it seems increasingly unlikely given the prevalence for me to me know no-one.

The weather and bleakness of the messaging is making it feel worse than Spring though.

People are more relax by it and they found a better way to handle it but they are still spreading it

March 18th - 33 deaths (total)
October 4th - 33 deaths (for that day)

Back in March though, by the 22nd of March (day before lockdown) the death total was 281

So in March it went from 33 to 281 in 4 days

Also, and this shows unfortunately just how quickly the virus can get out of control,

By the 10th of April, just a couple of weeks later than the above, the total deaths was 8,958 and the daily toll for that day was 980

Its absolutely rife and just blazing through everyone.

It's really not. It's just bad luck that you have been personally more affected now than back in March.

As a counter point, I know of 5 people who had it in March - none were tested because testing was so difficult to get. Nobody I know has it now, none of the kids in my children's large secondary school have it.

The Scottish government are now issuing figures broken down on a very local basis, by neighbourhoods of about 4000 people. It shows that over the last 7 days, between 1 and 4 people in my area of 3786 people have tested positive. They don't give the exact figure as it's so low that it could potentially identify individuals. Even using the upper estimate of 4, that's 0.001% of the population. Or putting it another way, 99.99% of the people living here don't have Covid.

Even in the area of Glasgow with a high student population, where we were told that it was so dreadfully awful that students were being literally locked up, the cases over the last 7 days for the Kelvingrove and University area of Glasgow were 24 cases out of 6546. 0.003% have it, 99.996% don't.

If that's rife then I'd hate to see what a low incidence is.

And you're suggesting we're on an identical trajectory?

(that was to @Flaxmeadow )

Northeast here. Knew noone who had it all through the 'first wave', the numbers for my town and surrounding areas were nonexistant really then. However this might have been because testing was not available as much then. Except for my sisters workmates who worked on the covid ward in the local hospital, apparently they all had it (though only one was actally ill)

This time around, half my contacts have had a positive test. The huge majority just had what they thought was a cold, but got tested either after work told them to, or after getting a cough/fever (though along with snotty nose etc) and a lot seem to think they had a cold, but had covid also at the same time although possibly asymptomatic. Hence positive test. Of course, they could be wrong in thinking that, but people do generally know what a cold feels like! I do think theres probably something to it that its the extra testing thats boosting the numbers, as previously asymptomatic cases that would be 'missed' are being caught as usual winter bugs doing the rounds at the same time. Oddly, despite knowing loads who have tested positive, I know noone at all who has been hospitalised, or even had a bad time with it. Its..weird. But obviously 'good'. If more are getting it but aren't getting as ill, then thats preferable to less getting it but more getting it badly?

I still don't know anyone who's had it, so no, it doesn't seem far far worse to me.

I guess to sum up, it seems more are getting infected. But less are actually getting seriously ill overall. My sister has been waiting for a tsunami of covid patients again ever since people started predicting thousands of deaths this time around, and shes got 3 people on her ward currently.

So no, it doesn't seem worse to me. It seems to be getting better? Even if ifections look to be on the rise.

And you're suggesting we're on an identical trajectory

No I'm not, but, and this is a big but, the numbers in my post show just how quickly things can escalate. This is why it is so important that we continue with the lockdown measures

Back in March the deaths went from about 300 (total) to almost 10,000 (total) in just a matter of a couple of weeks

People might have had it in march and not been aware though, I think more people have been affected and had access to a test to confirm is worth considering.

@ChaChaCha2012

If there is such a thing as herd immunity then these rising infections aren't actually a bad thing

There's not. They've already said antibodies are falling after three months. They need to push this point so people don't use your logic and think they can carry on as normal.

Is that not very bad news for a vaccine? If immunity is confirmed to be only for a few months, wouldn't that mean a vaccine would need boosted every few months? Obviously not a scientist, but from my understanding of vaccines (which is low, admittedly) thats..not good surely?

Do they have symptoms? Maybe it's a common cold. Tests could be false-positive just as false-negative.

It shows that over the last 7 days, between 1 and 4 people in my area of 3786 people have tested positive. If that's rife then I'd hate to see what a low incidence is
I was specifically talking about the NW and other areas such as NE. Obviously it's not high rates everywhere!! There were 2001 cases last week in my area. 402 per 100k so my experience is currently a bit different to yours!

I guess to sum up, it seems more are getting infected. But less are actually getting seriously ill overall
Thankfully this seems to be the case. When so many people are testing positive in your immediate circle though you cant help but worry about elderly parents and friends with underlying conditions.

Thankfully this seems to be the case. When so many people are testing positive in your immediate circle though you cant help but worry about elderly parents and friends with underlying conditions.

For sure, my dad was on the shielding list, meets higher risk for a few reasons, age, sex, no spleen and heart issues. On Friday my mther told me he had to have a test as had what he thought was a cold but then lost taste and smell. I was shitting..really. He was unconcerned and it stressed me and my sister a bit! Kept saying if it is that, then what will be will be, ad even though high risk, odds were still good! Its good in a way that hes thinking like that, but we were kid of in panic mode a bit about him. Luckily, he got tested at 3pm at Newcastle on Friday, and got results at 9am on Saturday morning, negative. It appears the testing might be on its way to be getting sorted out at least, with how quick he got his results, that will help a lot IMO.

I live in the NW and touch wood n one of my friends or family members have had that we know about except one friend who had an antibody test which came back as positive. She felt a bit rough for a couple of days in March but that's it. One friends nan was poorly in March with chest infection type symptoms which they suspect was covid but had no test do not 100% sure. A friend's neighbour has it and a colleagues brother but apart from that I know very few people. I know more people who have had colds but got negative test results. I've probably jinxed myself now saying that.

I'm in Kent and my husband was a commuter to London 5x a week (he WFH now).

Everyone had it here in March/April. Practically everyone we know locally was unwell then, but none of us could get tests at the time.

This wave has had a head start with a few hundred

It won't have been a few hundred, will have been way way higher, it has become endemic in some areas even during lockdown.
We're just testing more now.

I'm in a small town in the North.

I'm central and have the high street round the corner from my road.

The secondary is ten minutes walk one way and a junior school slightly closer than that.

Another primary school ten minutes in the other direction.

No cases over lockdown, heard of one or two through friends of friends but that's it.

Now in the last week we have 5 confirmed cases spread over all three schools.

Yes, I agree with you. I work with schools. Last term, from March no positive COVID cases at all within schools, now, the same schools 50 schools have positive COVID cases, 10 of them full outbreaks.

Yes, I agree with you. I work with schools. Last term, from March no positive COVID cases at all within schools, now, the same schools 50 schools have positive COVID cases, 10 of them full outbreaks

But there was no testing in March, unless someone was in hospital with suspected covid. So how do you know the numbers in schools for March to compare?

I think there are a couple of possibilities, given that cases are increasing, but deaths and hospitalisations aren't increasing so fast.

The first is that there's simply a time lag, and in a few days or a couple of weeks we'll be seeing much larger death tolls.

The second is that the virus is not necessarily more prevalent, but that mass testing now means more is being picked up (and that numbers were under-reported in spring).

The third, which I feel is more likely, is that the virus is simply settling in and we're developing a symbiotic relationship. This is what a lot of viruses do. They don't disappear but they become more benign.

Viruses need a living host to multiply and spread. If they are incapacitating or killing their hosts, they are not sustainable and will eventually burn themselves out.

The H1N1 virus, which caused the Spanish flu pandemic in 1918-1920, is still with us today. Many people still contract H1N1 every year, only now it's much more benign.

I think Sars-Cov-2 will eventually become just like lots of other seasonal illnesses. At the moment it is new and dangerous; it's getting used to us and we're getting used to it. Personally I think it will settle down long before we have a reliable and widely available vaccine.