Anyone else think this seems far far worse than the first wave?

[XiCi]

I'm in the NW. When we locked down in March I didnt know a single person that had had the virus. I knew of one anecdotally, someone my mum knew of, that had it after a skiing trip in Italy. That's it. Now, virtually the whole of my extended family have had positive tests, friends, friends of friends, their families. It goes on and on. Its absolutely rife and just blazing through everyone. Just seems like noone will escape it. Although luckily, this hasnt translated into a high number of deaths so far, the virus just seems far more prevalent.

Difficult to compare directly because London has different demographics to NW but both areas had excess deaths of over 8k in April. (London population is larger but younger and baseline death rate is lower).

Both areas now have deaths around average and neither showing signs of an uptick.

Therefore it is not clear that there is or was a North/South divide in incidence. There is a very different approach to testing and lockdown in the 2 areas though.

I am in Scotland. We have gone from aiming for zero Covid over the summer to the worst infection rates in the UK despite consistently tighter restrictions. Despite this deaths were 12% below trend last week following on a downward trend from previous couple of weeks. This is not to say the situation may not be deteriorating. However very little confidence in any of the testing or measures or those basing decisions on them atm.

NW based, teacher. There is a small number of infections rising within my school community. We have a good number of children off in isolation - a couple in every class I would say now - because their parent is showing symptoms. We have had one known case amongst students (which is low compared with other local schools). I have had what I think was a cold and tested negative but the cough has persisted longer than the cold so who knows? I keep hoping that's it for me but it could be wishful thinking....

My local hospital had doubled it's number of covid patients in the last 7 days and it's now starting to look problematic again.

No. In March we were seeing Italian patients dying on hospital floors on the evening news, the supermarket shelves were bare and people were wishing eachother good luck like it was the apocalypse. It was terrifying. Now we have a much better understanding of the virus, there are treatments like plasma donations, a solid supply chain and vaccines on the way.

Most people weren't tested back in March, but I know a lot of people who had possible symptoms.
Now, anyone can get tested (you can even lie about having a cough to get tested if you don't have any of the main three but suspect you have it, I suppose) and they are picking up asymptomatic cases too.
I suspect the case rates in March/April were a lot, lot higher than we will ever know.

If there is such a thing as herd immunity then these rising infections aren't actually a bad thing

There's not. They've already said antibodies are falling after three months. They need to push this point so people don't use your logic and think they can carry on as normal.

@LadyLoungeALot

Most people weren't tested back in March, but I know a lot of people who had possible symptoms. Now, anyone can get tested (you can even lie about having a cough to get tested if you don't have any of the main three but suspect you have it, I suppose) and they are picking up asymptomatic cases too. I suspect the case rates in March/April were a lot, lot higher than we will ever know.

This!

It depends what you mean by worse- numbers are high as we have more tests, but also because it's now affecting different demographics, who are largely not having to be admitted to hospital etc (thankfully), when the case before was that it was largely being caught in hospitals etc. We know more now as well, so overall I think more people are likely to know people who have it, but I wouldn't say we are in the same position as we were in March, thankfully.

Also agree numbers were likely a lot, lot higher back in March than the 'official' numbers.

There is a PHE / Cambridge study that suggests infections were very, very high mid march

If it's so prevalent in the NW (obviously I don't doubt you on that), why are you surrounded by people who think it's a conspiracy theory? Why are they disbelieving what they can see with their own eyes?

Well, I still no no one who has had it and I'm in the north.

If it's so prevalent in the NW (obviously I don't doubt you on that), why are you surrounded by people who think it's a conspiracy theory? Why are they disbelieving what they can see with their own eyes?
I have absolutely no idea what you're talking about Legit. Why on earth do you think I'm surrounded by conspiracy theorists?

Surely thats good that people are catching it but recovering?

And also we are testing so many more people now, its not like for like to compare

I'm also in the NW, and there's one thing I totally fail to understand: why are we allowed to meet others in public outdoor spaces (including pavement cafés and beergardens), but not in private gardens? Surely a small gathering in a private garden would be far safer than one an open space with lots of other people around? Or am I missing something obvious?

Only reason that deaths seem lower is because they are only including deaths that occur within 28 days of a positive test. We all know this disease takes a week or so to even need hospital treatment (day 10 is the norm when people get really bad) and often people hang on for weeks before dying.i work in a hospital and especially young people hang on ages. It was a deliberate move of the government to artificially keep deaths appearing low.

Professional. If we meet in private gardens the chances of moving it indoors ( especially in the winter when the weather is shit) are high.

Also we locked down before the virus had got very far in the north west. I remember saying at the time that the north west had locked down too soon. We were on the south easts timetable. Strange now how the south east is not being locked down because of us. It’s almost as if the country is London-centric or something!

@unmarkedbythat

IDK. Lockdown itself was what gave me the "this is big" feeling last time, because I wasn't wfh or furloughed and it was insane to go to and from work during it. My usual morning bus went from so crowded that people stood on both decks and the stairs to one day when it was literally just me and the driver. Then dh got furloughed and said he would take me to and from work and we would travel along these totally empty roads which are normally so snarled with traffic that you give yourself at least an hour for the journey and be there in 17 minutes. Everyone is still out and about now, so it doesn't feel so dystopian and weird.

Yes, I agree. I was already really alarmed the week before lockdown was officially brought in, had spent 2 weeks pretty much not going anywhere non-essential just before that but felt like a sitting duck with school children. Up to late April where I was, it felt as if there was either going to be an inevitability about serious symptoms from March 'coming out' at home given the climbing evidence from the news, and reported experiences of having to reach 111 for any help, or not. Now a lot rests on the testing and I think a lot of people who are not taking known risks will either be discouraged or have no confidence at all in trying that approach - nevertheless, a lot more will have the opportunity.

@Dustballs

I was thinking the same this morning.

During the first wave nobody on here had symptoms (maybe just a very few) and very few people knew anyone that had the virus.

I'm noticing now that there are so many people on mumsnet who have tested positive, have symptoms, know people who have it etc.

And in real life it's the same. There's no way that this can be less worse than the first time.

Hard to assess though,as most people are asymptomatic or very mild symptoms and there wasn't the mass testing. More tests, more cases. Interestingly though, not as many deaths. Truth is, I doubt ANY of the figures are accurate. If we were never told about it, I doubt we would of noticed. This is not Ebola. It is media fuelled hysteria.

I’m in the NW and I still dont know a single person who has it.

I do believe that infections have gone up but that’s because testing is easily available. You couldn’t get a rest back in spring unless you were seriously ill.

boobot I agree. It’s very misleading that if you are admitted to hospital for something completely unrelated you have to have a Covid test - if that comes back it’s documented as a Covid hospital admission.

I don’t think there is a conspiracy but I think how this has been documented in the past and still up to today is god awful.

More people died of flu and pneumonia last week than Covid. Why isn’t that on the news?

No wonder people are starting to think this doesn’t smell right.

I think it's worse because:

1. No vaccine in sight

1. And when there is a vaccine everyone will need to have it EVERY year - maybe even twice a year as antibodies are only lasting a few months. This is going to be hugely expensive and a nightmare to administrate. Very few people in comparison take the flu jab

1. The viruses long term effects are not known - and what we do know is terrifying. I read an article written by medics last week who all have Long Covid - they are practically disabled by it. It was a truly terrifying article by 6 docs who can no longer effectively work - the cost of this could be astronomical if we can't protect Medics - the cost of their disablement, the cost of training others

It might be worse in terms of spread/cases but it's not clear (luckily) that it will be worse in terms of hospitalizations and deaths.

I feel much less worried this time around, I don't want corona, and I don't want Long Covid, but I'm not living entirely differently now, I go to work (in a corona likely environment at university), stay home, wear mask which I don't really find an issue, and wash my hands a lot. It doesn't feel nearly as terrifying as in March. This may be because I am surrounded by students who either have it, know some people who have it or are waiting for testing, and none of them are seriously ill so far, so I don't feel the same way as if I had lost people I think.

London and other hotspots in March. It's doing the rounds elsewhere now.
The reason it had to be a national lockdown last time was to protect the non-affected areas. Otherwise Londoners would have exited the city on mass to places that weren't under lockdown. We saw it with people travelling to 2nd homes. It would have been worse if only London was locked down.

I knew someone who got it in the first wave, friends and family have had to attend virtual funerals, I know how close the NHS was to being overwhelmed first time round.

So far this wave has not reached those most at risk - but it will. It's almost impossible to isolate the vulnerable when community transmission is high, certainly when the conspiracy theorists and the mask refusers insist on visiting their vulnerable relatives. Once the vulnerable start to occupy hospital beds then other treatments will have to stop again.

Everyone who spreads the virus deprives another person of health care.

The second wave will be less often fatal, because treatments are better, but you'll know more people who are ill for an extended period. This a very unpleasant disease and anyone gleefully thinking they can return to normal should know they risk long term illness.

I'm in the NW my partner currently has it he lost his sense of smell but isn't ill at all. I have no symptoms so am not eligible for a test so god knows if I have it or not. He is the first person I know who has tested positive