Loads of cases and thousands self isolating but how many are actually really ill?

[Marcellemouse]

I'm interested to know this. I know there's thousands self isolating after being in close contact plus thousands of positive cases. Mass disruption to education and work places but is this proportional to how ill most people are?

I agree @Marcellemouse, we should be told properly what the situation is.

It must be a terrible worry.

(And it’s ridiculous to suggest that you’d “spread it to thousands”)

Yeah not a really infectious virus doing the rounds at all is there 🤷🏽‍♀️

Apart from a few mass testing studies at the University and a couple of food manufacturing plants, and regular (where possible) tests of health care staff, I understood that asymptomatic cases weren't being tested. So the bulk of the 7000-ish cases found every day are having some sort of symptoms. Symptoms may be mild for now, but a proportion of those cases will go on to need hospital care.

It's not whether they're ill or not. It's not about them. It's about their propensity to pass it to other people, whether students, staff, etc etc who may not want to catch it.

Cardibach: There have been asymptomatic illness carriers all through history. Try Googling “Typhoid Mary“

Age is the single largest risk factor, no doubt. However, there does seem to be a view that covid is a death sentence for the over 70s, despite the fact that a significant majority survive.

@BigBlueHouseBear

I read this quote below earlier in the summer and it really struck me. Are we tying ourselves up in knots and making a conundrum/problem where perhaps one wouldn't exist by this diagnosing of asymptomatics as "having Covid19". I don't know the answer but wish the question would have more consideration.
^^
"Making a diagnosis used to be a well understood and practised procedure: take a history from someone presenting with symptoms, examine them and do some tests to arrive at an overall diagnosis. It requires substantial training and experience to put this into practice. William Osler, known as one of the founders of modern medicine, often directed his trainees to ‘listen to the patient, he/she is telling you the diagnosis'.

With Covid-19, however, clinical diagnosis is seemingly a secondary consideration in the face of mass testing. All you require is a positive PCR test; no symptoms, no signs, no other diagnostic proof. But our limited understanding of mass testing and PCR suggests this might not suffice."

@paintmywholehousepink if that's what you think better hope I'm not asymptomatic then. Just imagine how many people I could have infected. We'd better all stop buying anything online just incase

@Marcellemouse if one of your team tests positive then it's likely that the rest of you might have it. If you all work in the same space. Really don't see what is hard to understand 🤷🏽‍♀️

@paintmywholehousepink I'm aware of that. I'm asking how people actually get really ill if tested positive and whether the current mass destruction to education and employment is justified.

@user1497207191

It's not whether they're ill or not. It's not about them. It's about their propensity to pass it to other people, whether students, staff, etc etc who may not want to catch it.

People don't want to catch all manner of things. Students also don't want to catch meningitis, or mumps, or glandular fever (illnesses which put them at a great deal more risk, statistically) , but it doesn't usually mean they have to stay in their rooms and learn everything online.

It's fine if someone doesn't want to catch something. That's their choice. Usually the onus is on them to avoid catching it.

None of this is to protect the vulnerable. It's to try and hide the fact that the NHS has been decimated so that it can't actually cope with ill people.

[quote Mummabeary]@BigBlueHouseBear

I read this quote below earlier in the summer and it really struck me. Are we tying ourselves up in knots and making a conundrum/problem where perhaps one wouldn't exist by this diagnosing of asymptomatics as "having Covid19". I don't know the answer but wish the question would have more consideration.
^^
"Making a diagnosis used to be a well understood and practised procedure: take a history from someone presenting with symptoms, examine them and do some tests to arrive at an overall diagnosis. It requires substantial training and experience to put this into practice. William Osler, known as one of the founders of modern medicine, often directed his trainees to ‘listen to the patient, he/she is telling you the diagnosis'.

With Covid-19, however, clinical diagnosis is seemingly a secondary consideration in the face of mass testing. All you require is a positive PCR test; no symptoms, no signs, no other diagnostic proof. But our limited understanding of mass testing and PCR suggests this might not suffice."[/quote]
Exactly.

With pretty much every other illness, a "case" is "someone who has symptoms".

The children were tested because family members were positive but the children had no symptoms. Yet a whole year or class bubble have had to isolate because of each asymptomatic positive. So they are testing people with no symptoms if the family is positive.

@Marcellemouse

I work within a small online company. If one of us tests positive we'd all have to self isolate for 2 weeks at home which the business would not recover from. If non of us got really ill that would be a business ruined and 10 people unnecessarily unemployed.

This is not the case though. If your workplace ensure you all stick to social distancing there should not be any close contact to cause this

Most people don't have symptoms with high blood pressure, but it's dangerous all the same, even if it's not contagious. With Covid, symptomless people can unwittingly pass it onto many others, some of whom will become very I'll and possibly die.
The virus is so new that it is little understood, so unfortunately we have to do what we can to protect people. In the future, it may be easier to manage isolation, when more is understood about the transmission. Some say it's about genetics, with a particular genetic marker being associated with a greater propensity to becoming severely ill. But for now, we just don't know, so have to err on the side of caution.

So why do people get told they need to isolate if they have been near ish someone who has tested positive, but not within 2m? Someone in the same pub, for instance? If we are having to stay 2m apart from other pub goers, why do we need to sign in and do the app and the QR code and all the rest of it?

If the people we are sitting with in the pub test positive, fair enough.

Though to be honest, re going to the pub, I have literally no idea what's allowed any more. If DP and I go to the pub with another couple, are we allowed at the same table? I don't even know...

Wear masks, keep the space ventilated, socially distance, don't have lunch together / chatter over coffee - then you wouldn't all have to isolate if one person gets unwell. It's not actually very difficult at all.

@Marcellemouse we know most won't die but some will. I would hate to be responsible for passing something on to someone's parent, partner, sibling who then died.

We need to try and get the numbers down. The isolating of schools, work places is part of this.

It's not fair. It's fucking annoying. But that's how it is & we need to get on with it.

Can you maybe put plans in place so that you all work away from each other? Then if one tests positive you won't have passed it to each other?

We are going to be having another lockdown soon so hopefully that will slow it down for a bit 🤞

It does seem odd that Northumbria is being labelled as a covid cesspit when clearly their stats are a result of some degree of population testing - I imagine the same stats would apply at many other universities if they were tested in the same way.

My son’s school has done two rounds of population testing (privately) and it is carnage. A whole year has been sent home as 15 out of circa 250 were positive, but none had symptoms. I wish they would stop testing in this way.

And lack of ease of access to testing combined with lots of only low level illness is a total Stumbling block to the sort of control that is aimed for. I can picture many people going through a thought process such as “hmm. Bit of a cough. But is it covid? Well, I could get a test. Oh. Nothing available. Well, it probably isn’t Covid. Never mind. I’ll leave it”.

We are going to be having another lockdown soon so hopefully that will slow it down for a bit

Have I missed something?

@BigBlueHouseBear

I read something recently, I can't remember the source now, but it did make me think.

That never before in medicine have we tested people with no symptoms, found them to be positive and called it a case.

In the example of the 770 students, I assume the uni is doing mass testing wether symptomatic or not. So they had 770 cases from an unknown group size. But if only those with symptoms were tested the number would be much much smaller.

What about HIV?

It's so important that thousands of women every year are tested when they have no symptoms.

Op, how is your office set up? Do you have more than 1 toilet? I would set it up on a rota basis/ make sure everyone is spaced out and using a separate toilet where possible (for example, if 2 toilets then half the team use one and half use the other) that way if only 1 person tests positive, half the team self isolate whilst the other carry on. That would mean no loss of jobs in the long run.

@Cleebope2

770 positives in Northumbria uni ,only 78 symptomatic and possibly not sick at all. These students are not spreading it to older people if they are in halls. Too much over reaction is my view. 3 pupils where I teach have tested positive this week, all asymptomatic.

And do they not go to the supermarket or into town where former vulnerable and ECV people are working or shopping (and surprise, surprise not all are old; they are the teachers, doctors nurses, shop workers, people we need to keep the country running).

The virus has killed 60k+ in UK already. Yes, it's pretty serious, so we have to stop it spreading. Why do people keep asking the same questions?

Ok yes of course they do go shopping etc but in controlled environments where they wear masks, sanitise, distance etc. As a parent of two students at uni I say let them spread it amongst themselves for term one and build up student herd immunity whilst they are faraway from vulnerable or shielding people. We cannot put life on hold much longer.