How much are you willing to accept?

[TheFatBottomLine]

There are a lot of threads asking those who do not believe in further lockdown etc, how many people catching covid etc they are prepared to accept in this scenario.. So I'm asking those who want us to be stricter, to lockdown again etc.. How many businesses collapsing, how many unemployed, how many losing their homes, how many with declining mental and physical health, how many years of trying to repair all the damage this has caused, etc etc are you prepared to accept as the price of further restricrions and lockdown?

But to say I am not cut out for it is no excuse at all. If excepting minimum waged work as carer keeps a roof over your head and feeds your DC, what excuse do you have not to take this work?

Rubbish! Would you really want your vulnerable relative to be looked after someone who was only doing the job as they had nothing else? I know I wouldn't.

I'm squeamish about blood and have a severe phobia of needles, how do you expect me to work anywhere I might have to give medical treatment? It's hardly fair on the poor sod with diabetes when I pass out when I'm supposed be giving them insulin!

herecomesthsun

Where is your evidence for these projected figures? There's absolutely no way of knowing if this second wave (dubious in itself due to excess testing and false positives) will lead to anything like the hospital admissions and deaths that you are so morbidly predicting. Spain has had sky rocketing positive cases since July and comparatively hardly any deaths. They had 59 deaths yesterday compared to a daily death rate average - from all causes - of 1175.

What are you thinking of, spreading such alarm and hysteria based on fear driven made up figures?

How many businesses collapsing, how many unemployed, how many losing their homes, how many with declining mental and physical health, how many years of trying to repair all the damage this has caused, etc etc are you prepared to accept as the price of further restricrions and lockdown?

But this would happen without lockdown.
If we had no lockdown the NHS would collapse as well, also other services. If the virus was left to it's own devices, millions of people would require medical assistance within a very short space of time and there would be no one there to help them. No ambulances, nothing

What part of "save the NHS" and "flatten the curve" don't people understand?

I've said this on another thread just a minute ago so apologies if you've read similar on there.

Our DS (aged 13) has a congenital heart condition. He's allowed to go to school - so he does. He has friends who have diabetes, severe asthma, survived a brain tumour and survived childhood leukaemia. They are the ones I know about - I'm sure there are many more in the school.

I have a family member who survived a brain tumour and is now back at work. She has two young children and she and her husband have a mortgage to pay.

I have a friend who survived breast cancer and another who has had an operation for bowel cancer. Two teachers in DS's school have cancer but are working. The kids mask up for their lessons. No one moans about that btw, they just do it.

My point is that many people say 'well, let's get back to normal. The vulnerable can shield'.

Fine, if DS shields because of his heart, then I and DH have to shield too. My friend, his family. My cousin, her family. My DS's school friends and their families - all have to shield. And you have to pay our mortgages. Because we can't work to pay them so we go on benefits. And your tax burden rises because of all those 'young and shielding, children and families shielding'.

All for the sake of a bit of common sense. Not going into a pub when it looks too busy, not expecting to pitch up to a restaurant and get a seat without booking, not expecting to be able to get a party of 20 seated for a meal (as a waitress told us about when we were in a restaurant on a weekend away). Accepting that we have a new type of 'normal' at the moment.

I don't want another lockdown. I want DS to enjoy his life at the moment and I want to enjoy mine. I, DH and the families of those I've mentioned have 'sacrificed' a few things so we can carry on going to the cinema, enjoy a meal now and then, go for a day out. But it's the 'I want to go to a pub when I want to go' or 'I want to party when I want to party' brigade that annoy me. In most cases it just takes a stop and think before doing approach. That way we stay out of lockdown, my DS lives to fight another day and I'll be a very grateful mum. Thank you.

@Barearseloverofthigh

Projected figures, from the information we currently have. Not made up, thanks.

3-4% deaths of total, without medical treatment, came from the first wave. There have been some advances in care, such as giving people steroids, but it's unlikely that people would get steroids if they weren't admitted and the system was overwhelmed.

0.5% deaths of total came from the first wave. We have had a good 55k deaths so far, depending on how you estimate it. There isn't clear evidence of lasting immunity, so the population is open to re-infection. In fact, evidence suggests that re-infection can lead to a worse illness, at least for some people, far from being protective.

If "only" half the population were to get covid over the winter, and if the death rate were "only" 0.5% then we would look at 175,000 deaths. it could be less. It could also be a lot more potentially.

@Barearseloverofthigh

Not alarm and hysteria but looking at past figures and real risks, thanks.

I’d rather 5% of the country were lost than the 95% left suffer wide spread job losses, poverty, hunger, mental and physical health crisis

It isn't 95% of the population who are suffering from covid restrictions though. Yes all those things are happing to people but it is an exaggeration to say it is 95% of the population.

www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01738-2 Article in Nature suggesting that good evidence gives death rate as 0.5-1%.

False positives are more of an issue when rates are very low. This is ceasing to be a compelling consideration, as rates have risen.

Rubbish! Would you really want your vulnerable relative to be looked after someone who was only doing the job as they had nothing else? I know I wouldn't

But the reality is that your relative is being looked after by someone who probably is doing the job because they have nothing else. Much more than that, many unqualified, poorly paid carers are doing that job all the while knowing that many people think they are too good to do any caring work. You know, caring work has historically been womens work. Of course care work is not over subscribed with people quing up to do. Instead it recruits from the pool of working class people who have few other choices available to them.

@Dustballs

I was willing to accept all of the restrictions - before.

Now I am no longer willing to accept any of this. So much is being thrown at us from all angles. Ever changing. All the time.

It's turned into a dictator kind of state where nothing is discussed by parliament. Local authorities and councils of local lockdown areas are not consulted. We're told at 10pm the night before that curfews and restrictions are coming in.

It's all. Too. Much. And has to stop. Now.

I for one am not willing to follow any of this any more.

Completely agree.

BJ doesn't even pretend to "follow the science" anymore. We all know closing the pubs at 10 and the rule of six have no scientific basis.

I’d rather 5% of the country were lost than the 95% left suffer wide spread job losses, poverty, hunger, mental and physical health crisis (my DF can’t get cancer treatment BECAUSE COVID)

But it won't be 5% lost or economic and health impacts for 95%, will it? It'll be 5% lost and economic and health impacts for 95%.

There is not a solution where we have a virus killing 5% of the population and the economy and health services happily chugging along like normal. There is just not. No country has managed to do this, not Sweden, not anywhere.

My mum is waiting for surgery that got postponed since March BECAUSE COVID and it is very shit, but I don't imagine that if the government said "oh let's not make such a fuss about Covid then, let it spread" that she'd be able to get that surgery either because the hospital would be at capacity very fast dealing with immediately urgent cases. How would they be able to cope with all the Covid patients and also treat her? They wouldn't.

PinkSparklyPussyCat, you would be surprised, what hunger or destitution does to your sense of sqeamishness! Just as well we have state benefits then.

Re global death rates, there are 1 million deaths world wide associated with covid.

This is against 33 million cases.

Now, there are all sorts of issues as to how those cases have been confirmed and / or tested and also ascribing cause of death is often quite complex. So the ratio of 1 in 33 could be lower or higher.

But that global average suggests a death rate of around 3%.

Sorry link to an article by the director-general of the World Health Organisation, about reaching 1 million deaths.

@amusedtodeath1

This has been discussed on here ad-infinitum and nothing I can say will convince you that those same things, economic disaster, etc., will happen if we just let it spread. The middle ground where we wear masks, social distance and self isolate will keep business open AND keep the infection rate low. But only if WE ALL DO IT.

1. It didn't happen in Sweden

1. In Spain and France everyone wears masks and social distances and still the cases are rising ever since they mandated masks everywhere

There are a lot of jobs that could support health services that would not involve giving injections. Doctors and nurses also need to eat, for example, if canteens are closed then some other way of getting food in, safely, needs to happen. And hospitals have kitchens, to make food for patients.

’d rather 5% of the country were lost than the 95% left suffer wide spread job losses, poverty, hunger, mental and physical health crisis (my DF can’t get cancer treatment BECAUSE COVID)

Let's talk about mental health as an example. Yes there is a mental health crisis in this country. Yes it existed before covid and it will continue to afterwards. Whilst there will be some people for whom covid may be the tipping point to commit suicide (and that is incredibly sad) there is a lot of talk about the impact of lockdown on mental health. Yes I completely agree that there are people who are depressed/anxious as a result of lockdown, but equally if 5% of the population died of covid there would also be a large number of people whose mental health would suffer as a result of this.
Please don't think I'm making light of mental health conditions. DH has one. All I am saying is that mental health suffers either way; as a result of lockdown and as a result of no lockdown.

2. In Spain and France everyone wears masks and social distances and still the cases are rising ever since they mandated masks everywhere

I'm not sure they are wearing masks inside households (where most spread happens) and I have seen lots of pictures where there is no social distancing. Spain allowed nightclubs to open and large gatherings and that has had knock on consequences.

Not alarm and hysteria but looking at past figures and real risks, thanks

Exactly! Past figures aren't relevant now that the vast majority of those currently testing positive for Covid are experiencing mild symptoms and remain in good overall health. They've also developed far better ways of treating covid in people who actually need to go to hospital.

Look at Spains figures and see for yourself how this is going.

Spain allowed nightclubs to open and large gatherings and that has had knock on consequences

Yes, a surge in new positive tests but not a corresponding surge in deaths. And for those saying 'they will come', the surge in Spain started in July and we are nearly in October. We would expect to see them by now.

1. People who have got infected over the summer tended to be in the younger and less vulnerable ages groups. There's a lower mortality in those groups. I think this applies to both Spain and the UK

1. As September came and people went back to work and school, it has been hard to avoid people in older age groups getting infected - certainly in the UK

1. There is a lag of several weeks before infections turn into deaths

1. Spain's mortality figures are in 3 figures and it looks as though the trend is upwards, sadly,

1. This infection still has exponential growth, so figures can look only marginally higher one week and then, 3 weeks later, you think, how did this happen.

1. Especially if we get infections in the vulnerable group, in both Spain and England, we will start to get a signficant amount of deaths. There isn't much effort being made to stop this happening, at least in England, no shielding etc. It will be now much more difficult, now society has opened up, for vulnerable people to avoid infection.

I don't think this virus has magically become much more benign over the summer, - it would be nice if it had!

All I’m currently willing to accept is; masks where currently requested. Hand washing, sanitising. No large group gatherings for now. No nightclubs. Social distancing where currently requested. But I would allow 2 households to mix. Max groups of 8 for now.

This plus lots of testing and isolating with symptoms. Protect the care homes. And I mean really go hot on the care homes. Strict hygiene measures, constant testing etc.

The rest of us get on with it with those measures.

@ACautionaryTale

"If they closed the pubs and bars we may not need a national lockdown - that would be my preference."

If they close the schools we may not need a national lock down

The numbers only started rising once schools re-opened. Pubs opened July 4th.

Its the elephant in the room no one wants to mention.

Sadly, this is correct. In my area almost all the Secondary schools have sent home hundreds of pupils and one is closed completely due to staff testing positive.

It is the elephant in the room.

@Flaxmeadow

How many businesses collapsing, how many unemployed, how many losing their homes, how many with declining mental and physical health, how many years of trying to repair all the damage this has caused, etc etc are you prepared to accept as the price of further restricrions and lockdown?

But this would happen without lockdown.
If we had no lockdown the NHS would collapse as well, also other services. If the virus was left to it's own devices, millions of people would require medical assistance within a very short space of time and there would be no one there to help them. No ambulances, nothing

What part of "save the NHS" and "flatten the curve" don't people understand?

That was then, this is now.

I can understand the logic behind the first national lockdown, even if I didn’t fully agree with it.

I don’t understand or agree with continuing restrictions because they are disproportionate to the problem we now face and are causing more problems than they are solving