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Covid

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Why are we in lockdown when no one is dying?

322 replies

SplunkPostGres · 28/09/2020 20:11

I don’t understand why we’ve got local lockdown again. Cases are high but deaths are still low. Seems like a lot of cases are asymptomatic? So why are the lockdowns and restrictions needed?

OP posts:
bumbleymummy · 29/09/2020 11:15

An ‘increase’ of 40% isn’t that many when you’re dealing with smaller numbers. Of course it sounds a lot more dramatic so it’s not surprising the Daily Mail went with that.

TheClaws · 29/09/2020 11:19

[quote rebecca102]@TheClaws Eased? You mean in the last two days haha. I live alone and all my family and friends live in regional Victoria like many others I know. We are talking about 5-10 cases in the ENTIRE state yet I'm now 'allowed' to go sit in a park amongst people I don't know yet I can't go to my parents and sit in their front yard? I can go swimming with heaps of other people but I can't go fishing alone??? Lol Like what I said, it's a joke. That's my problem, you imbecile, the hypocritical 'rules'. No wonder the suicide stats have gone up. [/quote]
Don't you think, though, that the decrease in numbers is a promising sign? There's no curfew any more, you can exercise more - you're getting there. One of my adult children lives in metropolitan Melbourne in college and may not be able to return home for Christmas (I'm in NSW) so I'm well aware of what's going on there. No need to be rude.

bumbleymummy · 29/09/2020 11:24

Derbygerbili don’t think it’s confusing that the antibody levels are different in different groups. I was reading all the different reports over the summer - along with the development of the new t-cell tests. It was why I was asking where the flat 8% figure came from.

MagpieSong · 29/09/2020 11:27

@JS87, yes quite.

Also, many organisations do count seasonal flu as preventable, such as the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (See website). No virus tends to be fully preventable across the world, certain groups, those with immunity issues related to illness or treatment (chemo etc), or relating to age, pregnancy, malnutrition are going to be more likely to pick it up. The issue isn’t whether it will disappear off the face of the earth (I don’t think a large number of people believe that at all) but whether it can be made preventable enough (reduction in serious effects, higher numbers immune to it that not, most common strains of year avoidable etc). We are likely to always have some covid sufferers in hospital at some point in the year, as we do flu and other viral illnesses, but to have huge numbers of them in ITU isn’t manageable, so we have to initially take precautions to prevent that whilst working on a longer term solution.

The rules factor in capitalism, protecting the economy and other government interests alongside science and were given by Johnson, so no, they’re not the best and they don’t all make full sense, that will be similar in all countries as governments look through their own coloured glasses at the issue. However, there is science behind them, though it’s not always clear or agreed upon. Some restrictions are necessary and these aren’t the most severe we could see, in many cases it’s the lenient ones that have little evidence eg. Schools where children gather in bubbles that are too big to be counted as bubbles, do not wear masks or social distance. Equally, some are poorly phrased, like the rule of 6 and cause greater confusion down to the UK being unable to agree on who counts within that (Eg. I pop to visit my parents in england and my ds counts. They come to visit me in Wales and he does not. Nb - we’re not actually visiting, but example). This all means some restrictions have very silly elements or take very priority that could be well argued against, but in general restrictions are based around preventing spread which is useful and needed, even if the methodology and phrasing is sometimes bonkers.

scaevola · 29/09/2020 11:28

I see that the government is planning to vaccinate the elderly and vulnerable first. I’d personally vaccinate health staff, carers and teachers first, elderly and vulnerable second

JCVI has already issued more than one set of guidance, and the current one (25 Sept) gives these priorities:

  • older adults’ resident in a care home and care home workers
  • all those 80 years of age and over and health and social care workers
  • all those 75 years of age and over
  • all those 70 years of age and over
  • all those 65 years of age and over
  • high-risk adults under 65 years of age
  • moderate-risk adults under 65 years of age
  • all those 60 years of age and over
  • all those 55 years of age and over
  • all those 50 years of age and over
  • rest of the population (priority to be determined)

"The prioritisation could change substantially if the first available vaccines were not considered suitable for, or effective in, older adults"

So HCPs will get it ahead of people under 80 even those in the shielding group, but other key workers go by their age/health status.

But until we know which vaccine is in the offing, it can't be considered a settled list. Because that last bit, about suitability for age (and possibly some medical conditions) is important - it's similar to why there are two flu shits and usage is determined by age.

TheSandman · 29/09/2020 12:18

@SplunkPostGres
Sadly I'm not sure how to quote

Click the link that says 'Quote' above the post you want to quote?

At this point I stopped reading about other people being "not as deliberately incompetent as they seem".

BatShite · 29/09/2020 12:18

@joystir59

My friend is a nurse and says covid wards in her hospital have been reinstated, they have 30 cases in at the moment and 3 deaths during as many days including a 30 yr old normal weight no health problems. Hospitalisations and daths will start to rise in the statistics soon.
My sister is a nurse in a hospital thats apparently in one of the worst affected areas in the country..yet says they have 2 covid cases. Shes baffled how the numbers can be so high while they have almost empty hospitals. She IS expecting a tsunami mind, she was massively overworked last time around to the point where she war raging about the nurses doing tik tok videos and pretending there was nothing to do! She also says a LOT of her colleauges are 'off sick' with anxiety at the mooment. So alog with flu season being dire for hospitals usually, a lot of staff are long term sick, and we have covid too. Gunna be a great xmas Sad
BatShite · 29/09/2020 12:20

I also think its a bit pointless to compare us to countries such as South Korea. They got a handle on it from the very start. We cannot possibly catch up to them now, the ship has sailed and we have to take other measures, what they do will no longer work for us...IF we caught it before it spread so much, maybe.

Devlesko · 29/09/2020 12:24

It's ridiculous, some folks believe everything they are told though, they'll only realise when all their freedom has gone.
If you disagree with any of this restriction of freedom and object to being tracked by the government you are branded a conspiracist, so the proles don't actually have to look at what is really happening.
There are a lot of ostriches.

TheKeatingFive · 29/09/2020 12:26

Also South Korea’s attitudes to data, privacy, surveillance are worlds away from western countries.

Northernsoulgirl45 · 29/09/2020 15:23

@bumbleymummy my point was more that op picked the lowest figures in recent times to emphasise the point.

Northernsoulgirl45 · 29/09/2020 17:08

71 deaths today.

mrshoho · 29/09/2020 17:24

metro.co.uk/2020/09/27/brit-29-who-thought-coronavirus-was-bullt-says-i-am-paying-the-price-13332249/

Please take a moment and read this interview with a 29 year old fighting for his survival in Watford hospital. He admits he previously thought it was all a con. He had no underlying conditions.

FatGirlShrinking · 29/09/2020 17:30

@mrshoho that news story is infuriating to me. The silly man didn't follow mask guidance, had all the symptoms of CV while on holiday, continued about his holiday, got on a plane and when he got back home he then went back to work and ended up hospitalised in the city he works in.

I feel sorry that he is so poorly but how many people will he have out at risk along the way?

GalaxyCookieCrumble · 29/09/2020 17:37

I am in Co Durham and thankfully the disgust we have for this shambles of a Government, has been quite succinctly been put back to Boris from all our Tory MP's, who thankfully agree with us.
We have 63 positive cases out of 200JK population, the new laws are not based on any peer reviewed science based evidence, its come from 2 Sage scientists who have a massive conflict of interest with huge shares in GKS and grants from Bill Gates.

Devlesko · 29/09/2020 17:39

71 deaths today.

Of what though, read the small print on how they are recording these deaths.

Legoandloldolls · 29/09/2020 17:52

People keep on saying look to Spain and France as we are x weeks behind. I'm looking every other day. If this is true we are not 2 weeks away from.a tsunami of deaths of hospital admissions. What happens next we can not know for sure, except that world wide the fatality rate so far is under 2%

We will not know anything for fact until we looking back on this. There is no crystal ball so no point in lay people with little or no science or health qualifications wrapping themselves in knots guessing.

I "thought" the second wave would rise slowly with masks, socail distancing, wfh. It didnt. I'm not disinterested of course but I'm not arrogant enough to predict beyound what we see in the rest of Europe. Its akin to reading tea leaves ( ie possibly a crock of shit )

GalaxyCookieCrumble · 29/09/2020 18:00

@Chloemol

1. It’s not lockdown, it’s restricted measures in some areas
  1. Because whilst rates are going up there can be a two to four week lapse before death occurs if it’s going to
  2. Because if we do t have restricted measured in some areas more will catch it, more may end up in hospital and the nhs may start to be overwhelmed again

I don’t get why you don’t understand, it’s all over the media

The media writes to suit their paymasters narrative. Basic Psychology on how readers believer everything they read in the press. Something is very off about all of this, and after having worked frontline A&E during 2 pandemics, this is all wrong.
Cusano34 · 29/09/2020 18:10

@GalaxyCookieCrumble what was the other pandemic you worked through? Genuinely interested how this one compares? I don’t think it’s fake or a hoax, I work in admin in my local hospital and know for a fact it exists. But I am interested in your experience if you don’t mind sharing

GalaxyCookieCrumble · 29/09/2020 18:22

@nocoolnamesleft

The number of people on ventilators for covid has almost tripled in the last fortnight. The deaths are coming.
I hope you understand that you can be ventilated for many reasons other than Covid?
HesterShaw1 · 29/09/2020 18:39

Other seasonal respiratory viruses for example.

I strongly suspect that going on a ventilator will not be the go-to treatment for Covid this autumn.

Neuronurse · 29/09/2020 18:53

I'm staying safe by staying in my home. Alone. Quarantining my post and food deliveries for 3 days.
I'm also avoiding eating fatty foods, salty food, processed foods, non organic foods.
I am maintaining a slim waistline to avoid getting type 2 diabetes that will increase my risk of stroke and heart disease. I've thrown out all the alcohol in the house so I don't get liver disease and increase my risk of cancer, high blood pressure (which will increase my risk of stroke and cardiovascular disease). No smoking to decrease my risk of stroke and cardiovascular disease.
I've sold the car so I avoid dying in a car crash. I won't cross a road to decrease my risk of dying by being hit by a car.
I'm not doing any DIY or any risky activities to stop myself dying from an accident indoors.
I've chucked out the TV so that I don't sit on my arse watching TV all day and actually do some exercise to decrease my risk of having a stroke or getting cardiovascular disease.
I've put my kids on eBay as they stress me out and stress is a contributing factor to some diseases.

GalaxyCookieCrumble · 29/09/2020 18:55

@joystir59

My friend is a nurse and says covid wards in her hospital have been reinstated, they have 30 cases in at the moment and 3 deaths during as many days including a 30 yr old normal weight no health problems. Hospitalisations and daths will start to rise in the statistics soon.
Your friend needs to learn about patient confidentiality, especially as the Trust can be identified through what you just put.
GalaxyCookieCrumble · 29/09/2020 19:11

[quote Cusano34]@GalaxyCookieCrumble what was the other pandemic you worked through? Genuinely interested how this one compares? I don’t think it’s fake or a hoax, I work in admin in my local hospital and know for a fact it exists. But I am interested in your experience if you don’t mind sharing[/quote]
SARS

SheepandCow · 29/09/2020 19:18

@Legoandloldolls

People keep on saying look to Spain and France as we are x weeks behind. I'm looking every other day. If this is true we are not 2 weeks away from.a tsunami of deaths of hospital admissions. What happens next we can not know for sure, except that world wide the fatality rate so far is under 2%

We will not know anything for fact until we looking back on this. There is no crystal ball so no point in lay people with little or no science or health qualifications wrapping themselves in knots guessing.

I "thought" the second wave would rise slowly with masks, socail distancing, wfh. It didnt. I'm not disinterested of course but I'm not arrogant enough to predict beyound what we see in the rest of Europe. Its akin to reading tea leaves ( ie possibly a crock of shit )

The lack of crystal balls and not knowing is precisely why we should exercise caution. Or else it's a huge Russian Roulette gamble with health (and longer-term economy).

We can of course work on balance of probabilities.

What we do know is that fatalities aren't the only issue. We have Long Covid. A potentially long-term disability affecting 10% of patients. Many had mild initial cases (non hospitalised).

We also know that the 1-2% fatality (quite a lot of people) would almost certainly be higher if there were no precautions in place.

We can also compare the economic and health situations for countries that took strong preventative measures (i.e. Australia, New Zealand, much of Asia, Germany) against those who didn't.