What’s going to happen to ‘the North’?

[Napqueen1234]

I say ‘the north’ as I’m well aware it’s hugely varied (Am a northerner myself) but for arguments sake we will bung it all together.

In ‘local lockdown’ for weeks now but numbers still climbing. Other areas going into lockdown/increased restrictions whatever you prefer at a fast rate. The north on the whole seems much more affected than the south.

What will they do next? Surely they can’t enforce a ‘proper’ lockdown for just the north? Or just close northern schools? FWIW none of this has been mentioned but if numbers continue to rise surely more action is needed. I completely understand if you’re in a v low case area the idea of a national lockdown would be infuriating but can you ‘lockdown’ a huge part of the country?

Will it create a further divide and stigmatise the north generally? Will house prices plummet even in nice areas as no one wants to move if theyre likely to be severely restricted?

I know I sound a bit hysterical and I’m not trying to scare monger I just genuinely don’t know what the next steps are going to be for us up here (NW, rates >200/100,000 and rising). Not only that but the idea of us having all bars and restaurants closed and not allowed to see any other families/households when other parts of the country now makes me feel very envious and depressed.

Fellow northerner 👋
Have to say my area still isn't massively effected although we have had a few positive tests and our larger borough is on the watch list. Personally I feel this is our area 'catching up' so to speak. When the nationwide lockdown came into force we had zero cases and it felt quite bizarre that kids weren't at school, everyone was furloughed and nothing was open when there was hardly a trace of the virus around here.

In the North, not in local lockdown, but dont seem to be doing any worse than our Northern Neighbours who went into local lockdown recently. If anything, our numbers have been climbing more slowly, since we were earlier than them to be an area if concern. I guess what am saying is ut seems to be location dependant, and some councils can get away with less.

I'm not sure what they can do next. We have been told by school to make sure we can access the distance learning stuff (Y7, so new to this school). I wonder if they think school will be half in for 2 weeks, with half at home.

While it sucks to be in a local lockdown, I think it is better than a full country lockdown. Things happen at the right time for the area, and not absolutely everyone is fcuked.

@RedCatBlueCat no I completely agree a complete lockdown wouldn’t be sensible but equally how long will people stick rigidly to rules while seeing the rest of the country going about their business? Unless it’s heavily enforced and I doubt there is the police/money for this!

Another northerner here although our area has somehow avoided lockdown so far, despite having a lower case rate than several areas in lockdown. I think it's swings and roundabouts. We might be worst here now but London was before, and I'm sure in a few months time another region unfortunately will be. There will be flare ups and measures to regain control throughout the winter unfortunately but I do worry about the winter as we get days and days where the temperature doesn't go above 0 and I know Chris Whitty said it was more stable in the cold.

I've been wondering this, my family live in some of the affected areas and they've had restrictions since the end of July but numbers are higher now than they were then! ok, i know some of that might be due to increased testing but it does suggest that the measures aren't working.

Really don't know what we can do next tbh.

Though throughout the last 'proper' lockdown, my area and those surrounding it had very low or non existent numbers. Seemed odd that we were locked down with such stats, though of course London was hit badly at the time.

Whatever is done next, the restrictions are clearly not working and in a fair few areas, stuff such as the curfew appears to be making things worse!

I know @BatShite! Where do we go from here? More stringent restrictions? Assume without any it would be worse so stick with it? I suppose my view is if we can find a level (albeit much higher) that it levels off at without many deaths and the nhs is coping then perhaps at that point we have to live with it through winter but the worry is with it going up and up!

I cannot see restrictions making a difference at all. Unless schools/work closes again as thats where the majority of the spread is. Elephant in the room really. As we cannot really afford to do that either!

All stuff like the curfew does is give people some false sense of security, and also someone to 'blame' when numbers continue to rise, as it suddenly becomes the fault of people who are not following the rules to the letter, rather than an obvious reaction to opening things up and people mingling more, mixed with the ridiculous test and trace fiasco which means people don't know for a week+ if they are actually positive, by which time its spread already

I'm in York which has been packed with people pouring out of pubs on Saturday night, both uni's are back now plus Popworld club opening at 3pm on a Saturday!
My guess is in a couple of weeks all pubs/bars and maybe restaurants will have to close, at least in York.

I'm in a local lockdown area (large town in the north east). Despite this measure, cases are rising.

Cases have been confirmed in local schools and the local college yet they remain open. This may be completely unrelated to the rising number of cases, but I rather doubt it.

I'd hate to think that Johnson et al would be willing to sacrifice some members of the public in order to avoid having to do a u-turn on claims that children are not speakers of the disease, but I wouldn't rule it out. Unfortunately, our MP is a party-line-toer, to put it very politely, so we can expect no honesty there.

It’s not doing a U-turn on accepting that children can spread the infection I suppose as that seems to be confirmed with all recent evidence but rather that children being in education is such a priority (rightly imo) that if that’s the leading cause of spread then they’re in an impossible situation.

We are due to come up for a night in 3 weeks to Liverpool for my sons 11th birthday. I’m so nervous that it will be canceled :(

@Thedarksideofthemoon30 hopefully not if you’re doing everything as a household then you should be fine. That’s what’s so bloody hard isn’t it you can’t make any plans!

Me too @timeforawine, although in a village on the outskirts... after the weekend I think our low numbers are likely to rise... 🙄🙄🙄

I think that the unsaid truth is that it was rampant in London and the South from January, and so a lot of the vulnerable people here have already had it. I suspect millions had it.

Most of my staff were for weeks with high temperatures and coughs in January and February, one was hospitalised with viral pneumonia.

A full lockdown stopped it spreading North, but when the restrictions eased, it was bound to continue spreading. Don't think we can afford to lockdown again, though.

DH and I had a weekend away in York just after lockdown eased and you could stay in hotels and my goodness it was HEAVING! I remember at one point looking at each other like ‘erm is there a pandemic on or have we gone mad’

But what about the South-West, why haven't they been affected as badly. Not that I want them to be, I'm just interested in the reasons. I was in Cornwall in the summer and it was rammed, with not much social distancing. Is it because of the population density and increased sunshine?

I agree that York is busy, but it is a ghost town compared to Padstow!!!

I think the only option is to do more stringent restrictions in the areas that need it - France/Spain are both doing this.

Take schools for example looking at the figures the North East and South East have both cumulatively had 15 outbreaks at schools compared with 96 for the North West and 80 for the West Midlands. There is an argument that the North West for example should at least go to blended learning. The North East shouldnt

@cathyandclare

But what about the South-West, why haven't they been affected as badly. Not that I want them to be, I'm just interested in the reasons. I was in Cornwall in the summer and it was rammed, with not much social distancing. Is it because of the population density and increased sunshine?

Possibly as they were hit harder last time around, so have higher levels of immunity among the general population, which makes it harder to spread? Not sure really.

Surely that puts children at a significant disadvantage @Quartz2208 in those areas especially if it’s for an extended period. It’s one thing if the whole country is affected but come exam time how would they know who have had the disadvantage of a lack of face to face learning?

@Napqueen1234 yes it probably does - but that doesnt mean a national lockdown should be followed. And I would expect that it would even itself out over the duration of this as different areas get locked down at different times. We cannot disadvantage everyone. But that is exactly why schools are being prioritised to stay open for that reason

We had to have a national lockdown at the beginning because we didnt have this information but now we do we have to follow where it is.

If the Government hadnt screwed up the last lot of exams though I would have said it would be fairly straightforward to create an algorithm that took this into account. If locked down by educational authority it would be possible to do this

I mean they wont - but it would be the solution

How are you classing an outbreak in a school, Quartz? I could find a list of way more than 15 schools with classes closed just south of the NE lockdown area. We were at about that number after less than 2 weeks back!