We have to find a way..

[TheNumbersDontAddUp]

.. To allow those who need or want to shield to do so safely, and with support, and allow those who wish to accept the inherent risk to do so, and continue to work, go out etc because quite simply the economy cannot afford for us to do anything else?

£300 million a month it is mooted that Richie Sunaks new measures will cost.

How can we possibly afford this without irretrievably imploding the entire economy, which will ultimately destroy us all, shielding and non shielding.

I say this as a vulnerable person, at risk.

@MummyPop00

Why would a NZ ‘circle the wagons’ approach to border control work here?

I’m not convinced as we don’t seem to be able to stop dinghies coming across the channel do we & the UK border force may have their hands full of EU trawlers after Dec 31st.

It's up to us. We can control our borders if we want to. It's easy when you're an island. The migrants arriving from France are presumably claiming asylum? Whilst their claims are considered they could and should be properly quarantined (like any other new arrival - permanent resident or not).

@TheDailyCarbuncle

I don't think what you're suggesting is inevitable (that the numbers will always spiral to the stage of exponential growth). We STILL seem adamant on ignoring the experiences of Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea, who have experience with SARS and have managed to keep covid cases low since Match. If you reopen with extremely low numbers, you can more aggressively trace and isolate the clusters before they become large outbreaks.

It's not just about keeping the numbers low, but the R low. As far as I'm aware, the R in the UK has never been below 0.8. Whitty/Valance mentioned that school reopening will add an R of 0.3, so we're always been inevitably destined to tip over into exponential territory (3000 cases recorded 8/9 days ago, 6000 yesterday), which just makes things so much harder.

@QueenOllie

I've been shielding since March. Stayed away from my parents, avoided shops, not seen anyone. I can go weeks and weeks without a conversation with anyone I've not added to the issue, followed the guidelines etc Why should I have to spend the next 6 months alone because people want to be able to live their lives, go shopping, go to the pub and not be inconvenienced ever so slightly as though nothing is going on? That's not really on

I mean people are talking about Christmas and whining about 6 people. Mine will be spent alone because again, I can't meet up with parents

Again this makes no sense to me. You've chosen not to see other people, how does the behaviour of other people impact that? Are you saying that because you're choosing not to see other people, everyone else must do the same?

I love these threads. The hypocrisy. We have and had choices and chances and tools. Masks, hand washing, physical distancing, not going on bloody holidays and travel in general and try to stay home/wfh. Many people have been shouting this since April. Oh wait, british -en mass- are entitled to a holiday, because many are just fed up and need a break. In the middle of a pandemic.

And yet in September people are debating a 2 tier society, "oh dear, what should we be doing..." And when someone says: wear a mask it's usually a straight NO.

It's okay to want to tuck away anyone who is not "normal" (call it shielding, vulnerable...), but it is a loss of civil rights that you have to wear a mask. So the non-normals would have less risk.

And kids should be wearing masks in school all the time.

At this point it’s not worth locking down to eliminate.

How much would it cost? Unbelievable amounts. On top of what we’ve already spent. It would take a long time and needs a vaccine at the end of it.

Better off to get through winter and hope that vaccine arrives. And I know it’s not a complete fix but it will allow us to function if it works.

@TheDailyCarbuncle I can't go into shops because people won't distance and aren't wearing masks
I've been advised to shield for longer so I am doing but surely everyone has to play a part to bring the cases down? Because if you don't follow the guidelines and you work with or live with vulnerable people, it will just spread to them. The extremely vulnerable can't live in a bubble, despite trying to shield as much as possible. I've had to go to a chemist to collect a prescription, and a blood clinic

It just seems very much "us and them" or vulnerable/not vulnerable
Like when people were saying to me "oh it's only the vulnerable that will die". Yeah thanks for that!

I have a vulnerable three year old. He was on the shielding list and his surgeon believes he would be hospitalised if he gets the virus - should he spend his childhood locked away too?

And I guess logically then our whole household would need to be kept inside - never mind his older brother’s education then.

Lots of NHS staff, shop workers, basically workers are vulnerable so who would do their jobs?

Should a whole family be locked away because of the vulnerability of one family member?

OP, I believe a way will be found to live as you describe. I have not managed to link this, sorry, but please google Open Letters Doctors Belgium. Hundreds (probably thousands) of Belgian doctors have set out clearly and precisely why Covid no longer needs to be seen as a catastrophic threat.

The letter opposes the current restrictions in many counties and explains why. With financial ruin facing many nations, I believe the arguments in this letter will find widespread acceptance.

Can any kind poster please link the letter? It makes for sensible and reassuring reading.

docs4opendebate.be/en/open-letter/

I agree, we will learn in time that long-term suffering and hardship caused by a deep recession and the increased divides in society that this will create, in addition to the non-COVID related deaths, will be far greater than the COVID deaths. But finding a balance is an impossible task.

@StarCat2020

No, I haven't had any personal experience, although I've a relative who had some funny symptoms but nothing troublesome (rash mostly) Even though I don't know you I am glad that you aren't suffering with this.

To be honest, I think this could be a real problem in the future though especially as it seems to affect people irrespective of age, sex, ethnic origin.

Thank you, that's a kind message

Thank you MakeOfThat

Thought this clip was relevant from Sky news:

mobile.twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1308477729440964610

This sums up how I feel about long covid - why would people risk that?

So if you mean by carrying on as normal being "mask wearing, sanitising, social distancing etc" what exactly is it that we need to stop doing?

It is the social distancing which is causing most of the problems at work with employers struggling to meet the guidelines and still make a living. The rules about not meeting large groups of people comes under the term 'social distancing' .

I find these posts so lazy in their thinking I can barely be bothered to challenge them mostly but this time I will bite. Since you agree with 'social distancing. Can you be specific about what parts of it you disagree /agree with?

Please also don't use the term 'lockdown' as this can cover so many things. What specific actions do you think we need to stop doing so that we can carry on as normal?

This. I initially assumed getting back to normal meant no masks, no distancing, theatres and nightclubs all reopened, concerts and sporting events with large crowds allowed, and literally no restrictions. But as the OP wants to keep masks and distancing and not allow mass gatherings I am baffled about how their back to normal would differ from the current situation. I still wouldn't be able to get within 2 metres of any of my friends and family, nor go to concerts or the theatre which were a big part of my life. It would be very much not normal.

@Flyonawalk

OP, I believe a way will be found to live as you describe. I have not managed to link this, sorry, but please google Open Letters Doctors Belgium. Hundreds (probably thousands) of Belgian doctors have set out clearly and precisely why Covid no longer needs to be seen as a catastrophic threat.

The letter opposes the current restrictions in many counties and explains why. With financial ruin facing many nations, I believe the arguments in this letter will find widespread acceptance.

Can any kind poster please link the letter? It makes for sensible and reassuring reading.

Sensible? It's full of junk science, misinformation and demonstrably false claims. The list of references includes several YouTube videos and a natural health news website promoting a false claim about Bill Gates. And any Tom, Dick or Harry can "sign" it using the online form, anonymously if they so wish. They can even claim to be a doctor when doing so! I just signed it as Dr Mickey Mouse from Disney Land Florida.

I am vulnerable because of a heart defect. We haven’t seen anyone since March, or gone anywhere except for quiet walks with our daughter. We’ve had everything delivered etc. But now I have to have my flu jab. My daughter has to go to nursery in December. I can’t keep her at home forever. I’m scared stiff because the virus is everywhere again. So what do you suggest I do? How do you propose to keep the vulnerable isolated, in practical terms? And their families?

@MarshaBradyo

At this point it’s not worth locking down to eliminate.

How much would it cost? Unbelievable amounts. On top of what we’ve already spent. It would take a long time and needs a vaccine at the end of it.

Better off to get through winter and hope that vaccine arrives. And I know it’s not a complete fix but it will allow us to function if it works.

It's going to cost unbelievable amounts to not contain it. A false economy. Better three months damage than a year's worse damage.

We're highly unlikely to have mass distribution of any vaccine by March. If we're lucky, we're looking at this time next year.

We can't wait much longer but right now we still have a chance - to protect the economy from worse devastation. It's buggered either way to an extent but we can choose to mitigate the damage. It just requires something fairly unusual. A bit of foresight.

Think of it like buying something outright vs monthly repayments with interest added.

The upfront cost is a lot in one go but long-term works out far cheaper.

And when thinking of the economy, we need to factor in the cost of a significant proportion of the workforce unable to work for months (potentially long-term) because of Long Covid.

@SheepandCow we can’t eliminate it, it’s impossible. Not when most other countries aren’t, not whilst we’re an international hub, not unless we want to completely yank the economy and make loads homeless. New Zealand and Australia are struggling to eliminate, we definitely can’t. It also can’t be contained completely long term as it’s a virus. Long Covid May be a thing, buts it’s also a thing with many other illnesses it’s just not given a name. There’s long flu, long glandular fever, long chicken pox, long cold etc. Most people who have this won’t be very unwell and will still bar to work, it is just a small number who will have major long term issues same as any other illness.

I think what is going to happen is what happened before. We are going to spout this "The NHS wasn't overrun last time" stuff, right up until the point when we see some other European country being overrun and then shutting down, and then we will eventually shut down, and then we will probably restrict access to hospitals, and not put our own dire situation on the news, and people will die in their homes, and we will get through it... just... at huge personal cost to the NHS staff and those who lose relatives, and then we will all say, "See? We didn't get overrun! We've screwed the economy over for nothing!" and then we will get a vaccine in the spring.

Australia and New Zealand are not struggling. They're doing very well.

We have complete control over whether or not we're an international hub. If we want to temporarily stop being one, we can.

The economy will be far more yanked if we fail to contain this.

It's not possible to completely eliminate a virus long-term, but in time we'll have mass availability of a vaccine and improved treatment options. (Some experts also believe it might burn itself out in a year or two but we can't rely on that happening).

So far it's not just a small number with Long Covid, and at this early stage it's impossible to dismiss how many will be affected or how badly (unless you have a genuine gift with fortune telling). Doctors dealing with Long Covid patients are very concerned. It's estimated to be at least 10% - which is a significant proportion of the working age population.

My daughter has to go to nursery in December. I can’t keep her at home forever. I’m scared stiff because the virus is everywhere again. So what do you suggest I do?
Don't shoot me if this is a shit idea but many moons ago when I was at uni I shared the school runs with another girl who had a DD.

Because the kids were in Year R they went to school in the morning and nursery in the afternoon. Some weeks I did all the school runs and other weeks she did.

Thing is we both would have had to do all of them for just our child so picking and dropping off the other girl was no more hassle on my week.

Is there any body that you know locally that lives nearby that could do the same for your DD?

Another idea is have one spoken to the NHS Volunteer Service (wrong name but I hope you know what I mean) and asked for their advice or suggestions?

There have got to be other people who have had the same issue already?

StarCat so lovely of you to think of this, thank you. What a lovely person you are !
It's definitely a very good thought, and doable where we live because we are lucky to have a very nice community around us. It would definitely reduce risk. I'm also concerned about the risk of her catching it t nursery and bringing it home. Not that I'm keen on her getting it in the first place, given we don't know the long term side effects! If things are bad in December, we'll have to look into a childminder potentially (fewer children so less exposure) or I could go part time and look after her while continuing to work. My employers are offering a good scheme for that luckily. We are in a fortunate position in so many ways, but there must be so may who are vulnerable or extremely clinically vulnerable who are facing these issues right now, and are in much trickier situations. Hence why I don't see a practical way of shielding part of the population long term, even if we wanted to go down that route.