Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 20

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 20 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Request to posters giving a link:
Please do so in full, so people can see in advance what they are clicking
Also at least a brief title so we know what the link is about

Good point perhaps it doesn’t have power enough to make the correlations it has. However there does seem to be some evidence that it isn’t necessarily lack of wanting to comply with self isolation - it’s responsibilities such as work and children? That is what I took from it. From older groups. The devil is probably in the detail (or lack of).

I have to say anecdotally that working class friends and family wash their hands before dinner and more hygiene conscious than MC. But no real evidence to back that up!

I think with pensioners always in E socio-economic coding if it was age related we would have seen higher adherence not lower there, but possibly. Also the people not requesting tests with symptoms were also more likely younger than those who did - it's all very strange.

Sadly they don't bother reporting the age make up of the sample - which seems dubious itself.

@BigChocFrenzy

Some people really don't undertand what being poor means: they may know a lot of statistics about poverty, but not the consequences for human attitudes, behaviour and decisions

Too true. I was bought up poor, in a single parent household where I remember being physically hungry and cold quite often and second hand clothes. Wasn’t pleasant! Even though my mother worked in a ‘good’ profession but on supply, so she couldn’t go off sick and nor could we. Real barriers to health behaviours.

Is this the Smith, Amlot study out at end of July? Or another one? The Smith study I’ve just glanced at it A total of 217 people (9.7%) reported that they or someone in their household had symptoms ofCOVID-19 (cough or high temperature/fever) in the last 7 days. Of these people, 75.1% had left the homein the last 24 h (defined as non-adherent). and the differences are so small, that this doesn’t seem very meaningful as a study, almost no differences across age or class. And left the house was a bit vague.

I appreciate you noting what actually poor is, I do feel many have no idea. It's also worth there is also plenty of rich poor, those that are not meeting their outgoings on a full wage and who it will not take much to go under.

How many daily confirmed cases would be classed as an actual record, ie suspected of beating confirmed cases in March if we had the same testing?

@IceCreamSummer20

Is this the Smith, Amlot study out at end of July? Or another one? The Smith study I’ve just glanced at it A total of 217 people (9.7%) reported that they or someone in their household had symptoms ofCOVID-19 (cough or high temperature/fever) in the last 7 days. Of these people, 75.1% had left the homein the last 24 h (defined as non-adherent). and the differences are so small, that this doesn’t seem very meaningful as a study, almost no differences across age or class. And left the house was a bit vague.

Ah. My DC had a cough in the past 7 days and we have all left the home in the past 24h.

However, he did have a covid test on Saturday which came back negative on Tuesday. And none of us left home to go to school or the shops or indeed anywhere else until we had that result.

So we did in fact follow the guidance to the letter...

@Regulus

I appreciate you noting what actually poor is, I do feel many have no idea. It's also worth there is also plenty of rich poor, those that are not meeting their outgoings on a full wage and who it will not take much to go under.

How many daily confirmed cases would be classed as an actual record, ie suspected of beating confirmed cases in March if we had the same testing?

.... We are way, way below that level but too little data and too different testing process to directly compare the number of cases

Several different models have calculated at peak there were 100k - 200k cases,
see link in OP

I suggest we compare the 40 deaths today vs the 1,445 peak on 8 April- and compare where we were > 14 days ago
which would give ballpark estimate that cases at least 14 days ago were about 1/36 of peak

btw, my back of the envelope calculations for Germany is 1/35, using better historical test data, % positivity etc and hence a different method

Is there any way of finding out how many of the daily deaths were in hospital and how many in care homes/community?

My husband says he read an article that there are badly hit care homes again....

Of course that ignores improved treatment, which several analysts estimate could reduce deaths by around 30%.
However, good enough for a ballpark

Main point is, we are nowhere near the March situation wrt cases, or growth
R then was estimated to be about 2.5, compared to ~ 1.5 atm
Cases were probably doubling every 3 days then, compared top every 7 days now

Is it just me or has anyone else noticed that the ... problem on the gov.uk dashboard seems to happen on Thursday evenings?

But dis the April death figure of 1,445 only include deaths in the first 28 days of a positive death? If so 40 now is much lower ( every death is one too many though). If it included all deaths, do we know how many of those 1,445 were in first 28 days?

@lonelyplanet

Is it just me or has anyone else noticed that the ... problem on the gov.uk dashboard seems to happen on Thursday evenings?

Maybe whoever puts the treats in the hamster wheels has an early yoga class on a Thursday?

@PrayingandHoping

Is there any way of finding out how many of the daily deaths were in hospital and how many in care homes/community?

My husband says he read an article that there are badly hit care homes again....

....

I don't know of up to date info

ONS issues reports which includes analysing where deaths occur, but these are always looking back several days

Latest ONS report is for week ending 11 September and only for England & Wales
See section 5. Deaths registered by place of occurrence

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending11september2020#deaths-registered-by-place-of-occurrence

"Over half of deaths involving COVID-19 that occurred in Week 37 were in hospital
.....
Between Weeks 36 and 37, the number of deaths involving COVID-19 increased in hospitals and care homes
(by 13 deaths and 10 deaths respectively)
and decreased or remained similar in all other settings."

@Cloudburstagain

But dis the April death figure of 1,445 only include deaths in the first 28 days of a positive death? If so 40 now is much lower ( every death is one too many though). If it included all deaths, do we know how many of those 1,445 were in first 28 days?

..... On 8 April, at most only a handful of deaths would have been > 28 days after a positive test, (as the test would have had to be before about 10 March)

• especially since there were so few tests then, outside hospital

fyi, PHE had no limit on days after test until August, so that 1,445 would have included all deaths from England

(The other 3 much smaller nations used the 28 day rule from the start, which is the normal standard nearly all countries use, but may well not have had any deaths then after a test earlier than 10 March)

Thanks @BigChocFrenzy. So hard to compare when the way they record/share data changes.

When I was young there was a concept of civic duty and community. The young accepted they had a duty to look after the old and sick. Then came Margaret Thatcher, no such thing as society and develop your own lack of morals.

My mother would not have wanted us to starve but she would have given her own food to isolating neighbours. There is still something of that sense of community where I live, the local food bank rarely needs to ask for donations. I'm surprised it no longer exists in the north.

Thursday evening issues - hmmm, I wonder if it's because of generating reports and sending data for the surveillance report on a Friday? Typical IT issue, concurrent processing tends to make servers unhappy if that hasn't been built in as a plan.

'Close to 100% accuracy': Helsinki airport uses sniffer dogs to detect Covid

No need to even see the dog
Not enough trained dogs to go round schools though !

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/24/close-to-100-accuracy-airport-enlists-sniffer-dogs-to-test-for-covid-19

Researchers running Helsinki pilot scheme say dogs can identify virus in seconds
....
After collecting their luggage, arriving international passengers are asked to dab their skin with a wipe.
In a separate booth, the beaker containing the wipe is then placed next to others containing different control scents – and the dog starts sniffing.
...
If it indicates it has detected the virus – usually by yelping, pawing or lying down – the passenger is advised to take a free standard polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test, using a nasal swab, to verify the dog’s verdict.

That followed the successful study of dogs in Germany, that I posted earlier

So looks an effective resource for testing at a few key locations, but hardly practical to find & train enough dogs to make any dent in the UK testing fiasco
Training probably takes several weeks and only select dogs would be suitable

Wow re dogs. I was wondering today how the dogs were going

Between Weeks 36 and 37, the number of deaths involving COVID-19 increased in hospitals and care homes

The number of cases in north west care homes according to last week's phe report was alarming and considerably higher than any other region...

Gas chromatography used to be considerably more expensive than dogs, I have no idea of the current position.

Still not enough information on the dogs to know if they are just detecting the symptomatic.

I'd love for every school to have its own Covid sniffer dog!!

Well, training tens of thousands of dogs would be much cheaper than a £100 billion moonshot

Ah what a school mascot that would be

I loved the look of some of them when the bbc had an article a while back