We were doing ok until we opened all the schools....

[Bbq1]

After lockdown was lifted pre September and pubs, restaurants etc were opened we seemed to have a handle on Covid with cases, hospital admissions and deaths all declining fairly steadily. Since we released millions of school aged children and thousands of teachers etc back into the classroom- boom, cases and consequently deaths, are now growing very rapidly again. It didn't take a rocket scientist to work out that this would happen. I work in a school and I have a 15 year old starting his gcse's so I 100% don't want the schools to close but surely there must be a more workable solution? Couldn't schools be one week, one week off for different bubbles or alternate days? Nobody wants schools to shut but surely in the long term if we don't get something safer in place and just continue sending kids and adults in day after day, then eventually they will close again?

@2X4B523P

I think the point is though, are schools a casualty of the community spread or is the community a casualty of school spread? The timing of the rise suggests the former.

If that is the case, and schools are not driving spread but are reflecting the community spread, then it should be possible to stabilise or reduce cases whilst keeping schools open.

It is both. The numbers in community take it into school.
But some schools then take that one case and make it 4. Which is a lot when you want a r below 1.
With each person there from different families (or at least 50%).
Especially people with kids families will spread it in the community as well as school. So they will also fuel the restaurant ones and care homes and hospital cases.

It’s only 2 months ago we were told ‘kids don’t spread it’

And now look where we are....

@Sunshinegirl82
School outbreaks have reflected community cases but are now driving them. If you look at every sector of society and the precautions taken compared to schools you’ll see that it was and is a recipe for disaster.

I'm not against the idea that schools are a potential vehicle for spread but the timing just isn't there for schools to be the driver behind the current increases.

In lots of places in the SE and SW cases are stable, those places have schools open too. The places with lots of schools discovering cases are, not surprisingly, in places with lots of cases (and that have had lots of cases for a long time).

I switch off from a lot of these types of post because the assertions made just aren't backed up by the data. I think I'm best sticking to the data thread!

@Sunshinegirl82
I like to look at the data too, if the spread was through, for example, EOTHO then why does the ONS have the hospitality section accounting for 5% of cases and education on 23%? (That figure was from a few days ago and may have been updated).

If you sealed everyone in their homes and left only schools open would cases stop rising and then disappear? Is that possible with millions of people spending six hours in small rooms for five days a week?

Cases per 100,000 are 113 and rising fast in my area. Two weeks ago it was around 6. Coincidence? I dont know.

Sorry I should take more notice of what I post, meant to say PHE and not ONS.

Weekly surveillance report to 25th September has hospitality sector at just under 3% and schools at 44%.

@2X4B523P

Are these the data you are using for that?

@Sunshinegirl82

I'm not against the idea that schools are a potential vehicle for spread but the timing just isn't there for schools to be the driver behind the current increases.

In lots of places in the SE and SW cases are stable, those places have schools open too. The places with lots of schools discovering cases are, not surprisingly, in places with lots of cases (and that have had lots of cases for a long time).

I switch off from a lot of these types of post because the assertions made just aren't backed up by the data. I think I'm best sticking to the data thread!

Can you come and tell that to my two exam year children, who have had bubbles closed due to confirmed COVID. In the south west, obviously if you say it’s not happening, we must be imagining it!

And it doesn't help with people blatantly ignoring restrictions like the Edinburgh students having big house parties
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54307846

It's unbelievable

@Sunshinegirl82
Yes those are the ones, I appreciate the breakdown figures include all ARIs but there isn’t one specifically for Covid. The ARIs and Covid bar graphs are broadly similar for each sector so those percentages should be fairly accurate.

@Itisasecret

The attached shoes the PHE data on confirmed outbreaks by region. Only 7 secondaries in SW over the last 4 weeks and 4 in the last week included in the report so your DC have been really unlucky given the area you're in. There's no denying that any bubble closures are shit for everyone affected.

[quote Sunshinegirl82]@Itisasecret

The attached shoes the PHE data on confirmed outbreaks by region. Only 7 secondaries in SW over the last 4 weeks and 4 in the last week included in the report so your DC have been really unlucky given the area you're in. There's no denying that any bubble closures are shit for everyone affected.[/quote]
Have you considered the possibility that the figures are hiding the real number?

Let’s just say, for arguments sake, they were truthful (they aren’t) representative of the reality at all.

They won’t cover undetected outbreaks which will be rife because of poor testing.

I get you have your agenda, but it doesn’t match up to the reality. They won’t be able to hide it for much longer:

Bubble closures and confirmed outbreaks aren’t the same thing.

@noblegiraffe

Do you think if parents can (confidently) they'd be better off homeschooling? I just can not work out how risky it is.

The whole thing makes me so uncomfortable because I really don't trust the government

@noblegiraffe

Bubble closures and confirmed outbreaks aren’t the same thing.

Indeed, which is how they are hiding it.

You can compensate people for loss of earnings, you can't compensate children for loss of education.

Everything we do should have that at the heart.

2000 schools now

@2X4B523P

Those data do not establish that educational settings were responsible for 23% (or 44%) of Covid cases. It shows they were the location of 23% (or 44%) of ARI outbreaks or clusters which is completely different.

Clusters will only ever be identified in places like schools, workplaces etc. Household transmission is considered to be a key driver but it won't appear in "cluster" data.

In addition there is the inherent difficulty in contact tracing from places like restaurants and pubs. I would suggest that you are likely to "catch" far more cases in schools and therefore be more readily able to identify clusters (due to a school's fixed and known population) than you would with pubs (transient, unknown population who may choose not to provide contact details).

Whenever I post on these threads I always get the impression that it's assumed I'm some sort of Covid denier who thinks schools are magically protected from Covid. I'm not and I accept that we will probably see at least some spread result from schools being open but for me the data just isn't there to conclude that schools are a key driver behind the current rise in infection levels (at least not yet).

@Itisasecret

Ah ok, well when "they" finally have to reveal the truth I'm sure I will see the light.

[quote Sunshinegirl82]@Itisasecret

Ah ok, well when "they" finally have to reveal the truth I'm sure I will see the light.[/quote]
I doubt it, people will still be clutching at straws.

Using ARI breakdown vs covid bar graph for percentages I have included covid bar graph zoomed with ruler to 100mm for scrutiny if required. As you can see the percentages I quoted at 1548hrs are accurate. See the final letter of restaurant sits just above week 37 corner so that I haven’t used all ARI bar graph where it’s above week 35.

The thing is, a cluster is 2 or more cases within a single setting.

School bubbles are being closed for single cases OR because of teachers who are isolating but cannot get tested OR because of staff having to self-isolate because of a household member who is nothing to do with the school at all. So e.g. a primary school bubble may close because a teacher is self-isolating because of a single case (their partner) in a completely different workplace.

The number of 'outbreaks' is therefore well below the true number of 'affected schools'.

@Sunshinegirl82
Didn’t see your 1615hrs post before I posted my last message. I was quoting schools vs hospitality as many people assume it’s eating out that’s driving the figures. Household transmission is another ball game.