Do you think lockdown will be lifted for Christmas?

[BlusteryShowers]

I can't help but feel quietly confident that there will be an announcement some time in December allowing an easing of lockdown measures for a short period over Christmas.

I propose that the govt suspect many would flout rules any way, so they may as well make it Part Of The Plan and take credit for their benevolence.

The timing of the announcement would be interesting. The spending that goes into Christmas is huge and lots of businesses rely on it. Can we even afford a very very low key Christmas?

Does anyone else think this?

Right now I don't, but then I'm feeling like we are sleepwalking into March again! With a decent testing system and testing for a wider range of symptoms, perhaps. I think this time next month, we will be in a shower of shit, with numbers much higher than they would have been with a decent testing system. I hope I'm wrong and I can post this comment at Christmas saying how paranoid I was!

The harsh reality is that we must accept Christmas this year is going to be very different to previous years. True some families may choose to break the rules and socialise, some giving more than just gifts to their vulnerable relatives.

Overall our current situation is that unless there is a miracle or divine intervention, covid will be the number one priority. We will be incredibly fortunate to avoid a full lockdown over winter, however this is increasingly looking to not be the case. Maybe we will learn that less is more...

A lot of posters on here are (still) trying to make this into a case of Christianity being given preferential treatment over other religions.

1. Easter was during lockdown. Easter is actually the most important Christian festival.

1. Apart from a Jehovah’s Witness family, I don’t know anyone of any faith or of none who doesn’t normally have some form of get-together and celebration at Christmas. It’s a national holiday.

Unless things are mightily improved by December (a Christmas miracle then!) we’ll all just have to adapt this year and scale it back.

'But ive seen similar throughout the thread, ive no idea what some people imagine by scaled down affair. All i want is my children to be here for Christmas and it would be good if my dad could have his Christmas dinner here .Thats my Christmas...I’m not sure how i can scale it Down any further, though i suppose it could just be me and dh'

But rufus that is fine! it's the people who can't cope without at least 20 people round all day and night. Yes it's lovely to see everyone all at once but this year it'll have to be different. Immediate family only, with older relatives seeing people at various times so there isn't a massive group indoors all at one time.

My son is in Y9, his bubble is his entire school year of almost 200 children. No SD within that bubble.

So as far as I'm concerned I am part of this bubble of 200 families, whose actions I have zero control of or knowledge of. People with more than one DC must be part of even larger bubbles.

How can people in my position even consider spending Christmas with older, vulnerable relatives? Even with indoor SD unless you live in a house that can be fully sanitised it's very very risky.

@Chaotic45 absolutely and you sound like you talk total common sense, however, there are a few totally selfish, spoilt brats on this thread who clearly think spending their Christmas as they normally do is far more important for one day, than anyone else’s health.

@LadyPenelope68 thank you for understanding. I can't understand what more people don't see this.

I cannot with any confidence know that DS has not caught the virus from someone in his year and is asymptomatic, or in an incubation period, and hence the same goes for me and DH.

Others in this position considering their big usual Christmas must be deluded, selfish- or have made a conscious decision that passing on the virus is a risk worth taking.

I'm in Scotland, so currently we can't have any visitors. It would be an improvement if the Scottish Government allowed 6 for xmas, but I doubt it because it seems we always have to be different from England. Who knew a virus could recognise an arbitary land barrier?

@TheNavigator I'm in England, and although I can see how hard that rule must be it does make perfect sense to me.

As you can see from my post below, most people with secondary aged kids and in a bubble of hundreds of people. So we are at the mercy of hundreds of families.

Many of these will undoubtedly have the selfish approach so clearly shown by this thread- so we are in an incredibly risky position.

[quote Chaotic45]@LadyPenelope68 thank you for understanding. I can't understand what more people don't see this.

I cannot with any confidence know that DS has not caught the virus from someone in his year and is asymptomatic, or in an incubation period, and hence the same goes for me and DH.

Others in this position considering their big usual Christmas must be deluded, selfish- or have made a conscious decision that passing on the virus is a risk worth taking. [/quote]
Ive had some one on my Facebook babbling on about how she wont let Boris stop her from having Christmas with her family.

But its not about what Boris will or won't let you do.

Im starting to see a rise in case where i am and given how interconnected it is with places currently with high numbers im very unsurprised. Its only going to get worse because the penny hasn't dropped with a lot of people.

Its starting to though. We know of a nunber of cases personally and how theyve passed it to others. Its the kind of place where everyone knows every one else so word is getting about. Its only going to build resentment but it might also make people think a bit more.

I also know people very badly affected having had the virus in April. A couple who are slim, fit, active, healthy, white, affluent - all the things you dont associate with covid issues - their only risk factor is they are just 50. Both caught it in April, one was hospitalised and has long term complications. The other has developed chronic fatigue. Neither are able to work.

So even if we aren't talking deaths the idea of being at least partly responsible for that - or worse - hanging over me is not something im prepared to risk if rates locally remain high. And it might not be my friends or family but theirs and thats not much better.

I don't know how others can make this calculation in good conscience for the sake of a party / a bit of fun unless there is some very pressing need (a terminally ill friend / family member).

@Chaotic45 but cases are incredibly low in my part of rural Scotland, I know of no one who has had covid throughout this whole period. It just feels surreal, to be honest.

I think that unless things have got much better Christmas Day festivities should be limited to two households mixing with overnight stays permitted if necessary. That way no one will spend Christmas Day on their own.
Given that public transport usually shuts down for three days at Christmas some people may need to stay a few nights with their Christmas host until they can travel home.

[quote TheNavigator]@Chaotic45 but cases are incredibly low in my part of rural Scotland, I know of no one who has had covid throughout this whole period. It just feels surreal, to be honest.[/quote]
Your problem is people visiting from higher risk areas outside the community at Christmas.

Which is exactly why there won't be a loosening of restrictions around Christmas because it will be able movement of the virus between areas rather than people mixing locally that they will be most worried about. And rightly so.

Its also easier to stop long distance travelling around Christmas than me popping to my mates who live around the corner 30 seconds away.

@GetOffYourHighHorse

'But ive seen similar throughout the thread, ive no idea what some people imagine by scaled down affair. All i want is my children to be here for Christmas and it would be good if my dad could have his Christmas dinner here .Thats my Christmas...I’m not sure how i can scale it Down any further, though i suppose it could just be me and dh'

But rufus that is fine! it's the people who can't cope without at least 20 people round all day and night. Yes it's lovely to see everyone all at once but this year it'll have to be different. Immediate family only, with older relatives seeing people at various times so there isn't a massive group indoors all at one time.

Well thats what i thought, and I appreciate your comments so thank you

It MIGHT...just might be 7 (my dad is supposed to be at my brothers but I’m planning for him being here just in case) but ive broken the ‘Potential’ rule just As much as the person with 10 or 12

But some posters, not you, are getting irate at posters having a ‘Normal Christmas’ IF it breaks the rules

I Understand that the rules are intended to keep socialising small scale (though the 6 separate households Is weird) and to be fair i would struggle to follow the rules if it was only two households As well as i have two uni students 😀

@RedToothBrush how tricky for your friends with ongoing difficulties.

I agree with you that for some people, hearing first hand of covid cases might just make them sit up and take notice.

I think there may be a ban of travel outside areas to stop people taking the virus from area to area over the Christmas period. It would make sense and likely the rule of 6 will change to two households like Scotland.

As I was saying about universities and people not realising that students might not be going home for Christmas this year, this has been published in the Liverpool Echo this morning.

The city already had 90 cases amongst students before term had started.

www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/students-could-told-stay-campus-18987868
Students could be told to stay on campus over Christmas to prevent spread of coronavirus

Experts fear larger outbreaks of the virus could take place near Christmas and New Year

The Government should tell students to remain on campus during the Christmas break, experts have warned.

Top scientists from The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) said universities are more likely to be hit with larger outbreaks of Covid-19 towards the end of the academic term, inews reports.

These outbreaks, which would coincide with Christmas and New year experts fear, "could pose a risk to both local communities and families, and will require national oversight, monitoring and decision making."

The warnings were included in the latest minutes to be published from meetings of SAGE.

@RedToothBrush telling student to remain at uni over Christmas makes good sense. However I can't help thinking this won't happen- I'm imagining that many are finding the change to uni setup really hard, especially freshers. I can't see that ontop of that they, or their parents will wang to miss the chance to see family over the festive break.

They are just big kids after all....

[quote Chaotic45]@RedToothBrush telling student to remain at uni over Christmas makes good sense. However I can't help thinking this won't happen- I'm imagining that many are finding the change to uni setup really hard, especially freshers. I can't see that ontop of that they, or their parents will wang to miss the chance to see family over the festive break.

They are just big kids after all....[/quote]
We will see.

I'm not sure it will necessarily be an option though. If you are a student at university your parents are likely to be in their 50s and 60s so potentially more at risk than people realise.

If other students are staying on campus it will be easier.

I think it depends on where we are come the start of December but given where we are now and how people aren't responding sufficiently to restrictions and difficulties with schools, I honestly don't think numbers are going anywhere but upwards even the rate of increase slows.

I completely agree with you in principal. But practically speaking I'm not sure they will comply, especially freshers.

First year away from home, an isolated term, parents desperate to see them, offers of Christmas food and presents etc. Plus as we see throughout mumsnet there are many many people who put their own personal rules above the official rules.

I just can't see it working in practice.

The thought of students being told not to come home for Christmas is very sobering. I have student children myself and a Christmas without immediate family, let alone any visitors would be very strange.

Me neither, and nor do I think a cohort of parents who mostly are mid 40s to 60ish are all going to comply with it. Those who are shielding, extremely vulnerable, very scared etc maybe, but that isn't most middle aged people. I just don't see the average 52 year old refusing their 19 year old's request to come home for Christmas on the basis of risk.

@OpenlyGayExOlympicFencer agreed. Most parents will put welcoming their university educated kids back home for Christmas before their own health, especially having not seen them for a long time, and potentially not being able to see them again until
Easter.

It's not ideal for covid spread, but very understandable.

Mmm, and honestly I have my doubts that the majority of that cohort will think of themselves as being at particular risk.

Average age of first birth for a woman in the UK in the early 00s was about 27-28, dad maybe a couple of years older. For all births, you can usually add a couple of years to that. I couldn't find exact stats, this was the closest I could get, but let's say for all births it was perhaps 29 for mothers and 31 for fathers.

www.statista.com/statistics/281981/live-births-in-the-united-kingdom-uk/

Making those parents on average about 50 now. More educated people tend to have kids a bit later and those kids are more likely to go to uni, but on the other hand people with lower education levels are more likely to be dead before they're 50 and also to have significant comorbidities ie to have no real choice but to refuse to allow their child home. So 50ish seems a good guess.

And I just don't see the average 50 year old thinking the covid risks are sufficiently important to oblige their 19 year old to stay in halls over Christmas. Probably the older parents in this cohort will be more cautious and the younger ones less, so the 62 year old parents of freshers will probably be less likely to have them home than the 42 year olds.

But it isn’t so much about the individual risk to parents in their 50s catching Covid from student offspring but the increased risk to everyone of a large number of (probably asymptomatic) people moving from places where infections may well be high to places where it is low. Also, students don’t just come home and have Christmas dinner with their parents, they also socialise with friends from home while they are back