What is the end goal?

[AwaAnBileYerHeid]

Ok so let me start off by saying that I do stick to the rules. I wear masks, I adhere to social distancing etc. I have been following the government rules fairly strictly and not moaning about them too much because.. well, it is what it is.

I'm just wondering though, what is the end goal with coronavirus? If we have another lockdown as of today and ease it slowly, at some point, at the end of lockdown, we have to live our lives as normal and at that point, the virus will flourish. Whether the rules ease off in one week, one year or one decade, at that point, rates will begin to rise. Are we really just putting off the inevitable? I do get that we have to prepare, build services up so that they can cope. But haven't we already done that with the Nightingale Hospitals? Is the government trying to see us through the winter season? Is it this potential vaccine that we are waiting for?

So yeah, I guess my question is what it is in the title without all the above bumf lol.

Vaccine and the virus petering out because of lack of hosts. Also hopes that the virus will
mutate into a less dangerous strain, but no sign of that yet.

Presume the "goal" is not to have patients lined up on the floor in A&E.

I'm just wondering though, what is the end goal with coronavirus? If we have another lockdown as of today and ease it slowly, at some point, at the end of lockdown, we have to live our lives as normal and at that point, the virus will flourish

1. We aren't having another lockdown as of today.
2. A number of vaccines are in the final stages of testing.
3. Medicines are being developed.
4. There is nothing to say that, in the future, we will go back to living our lives in exactly the same manner as before.
5. How do we know this virus won't just weaken and die out after, say, 18 months? I'm not saying it might but who knows at this stage?

" the virus petering out because of lack of hosts. "

Is that likely? Would we not have to have an >80% compliance rate with social distancing, masks etc, along with the closure of schools, workplaces etc to prevent it spreading from host to host?

I'm guessing at "Save the NHS". Presumably the powers that be are concerned that an autumn build up of cases with the usual winter nasties of flu/ norovirus mixed in will make for a long, difficult winter.

I hope it's Save the NHS anyway, that is vaguely realistic.

Preventing any Sadly Deaths from Coronavirus would be unrealistic insanity.

There is no goal. Eventually restrictions will have to stop and nothing much will have changed. All that's preventing that from happening now is that politicians are too cowardly to admit that months of lockdown and a destroyed economy were essentially for nothing.

It’s clear that they’re pinning everything on a vaccine fairly soon as they have no strategy at all. They’re fucked frankly.

There isn't one.

More realistically though I think it’s to keep the R below 1 which will at least stop it growing exponentially

@AwaAnBileYerHeid

" the virus petering out because of lack of hosts. "

Is that likely? Would we not have to have an >80% compliance rate with social distancing, masks etc, along with the closure of schools, workplaces etc to prevent it spreading from host to host?

I meant in conjunction with a vaccine but eventually that’s what would happen if left to its own devices. Kill the vulnerable, only find strong hosts that can fight it off and then peter out. The human cost of that would be exceedingly high, though, like the 50m who died in the flu pandemic 100 years ago.

Muddling on balancing the economy with the number of people in hospital, until science (vaccine) saves us next year.

"Presume the "goal" is not to have patients lined up on the floor in A&E."

Well obviously that would be the hope along the way. But I'm asking asking about the long term aim/plan/goal.

@frozendaisy

Presume the "goal" is not to have patients lined up on the floor in A&E.

But that isn't happening and has never happened

@TheDailyCarbuncle

There is no goal. Eventually restrictions will have to stop and nothing much will have changed. All that's preventing that from happening now is that politicians are too cowardly to admit that months of lockdown and a destroyed economy were essentially for nothing.

Well said!

We aren't having another lockdown as of today.

Not as such but here in Scotland, every man and his dog have basically been told that they can't visit other households bar for essential reasons. Not an actually lockdown but still pretty strict measures. And we will have to eventually loosen these rules so what then?

I pray that your point number 5 is actually what happens! It is a possibility, however low!

The only goal right now is getting through the winter virus season without overwhelming NHS (and huge knock-on effect to all non-Covid services which have struggled enough with planned reprioritisation, and could collapse if another big peak not averted)

Six months mentioned by the PM - by then we’ll be through the winter virus season and we should have learned more (here and globally) about which activities interventions have the biggest effect on transmission. And there might be concrete news on when a vaccine might be ready.

And that’ll be the time to set the next goal

@yawnsvillex

But that isn't happening and has never happened

It nearly happened, not every hospital every where, but some it nearly did. It took a nation wide lockdown to prevent it.

@AwaAnBileYerHeid

"Presume the "goal" is not to have patients lined up on the floor in A&E."

Well obviously that would be the hope along the way. But I'm asking asking about the long term aim/plan/goal.

I don't think the powers that be can answer this.

Get through usual autumn/winter but with Covid-19, throw everything at vaccine development, cross fingers a viable vaccine can be rolled out in 2021 without too much loss of life and an economy on life support which can recover.

Goal ideally would be slow spread until

A) Vaccine
or
B) Effective treatment
or
C) Drip fed herd immunity

Problem is, we have the economy turning to shit so we don’t really have the luxury of infinite time.

I think they are pinning everything on the vaccine being available as mentioned early part of next year, so in the meantime it's save as many people as possible and enable the NHS to cope over winter. If the vaccine doesn't come off, this way of life isn't sustainable longterm and there needs to be another plan to get us out of this. Maybe the virus will weaken, that's a possibility too. The WHO have said they expect this pandemic to last 2 years, I should imagine it will take that long for all countries to be safe. I would guess the wealthier countries would be out of this sooner.

I think they can see that vaccines on balance will probably work and because of that, they have to hold out until they know for sure and reduce risk where they can.

It'll take easily another 6 months (according to Patrick Vallance) before they know for sure so they need to cycle in and out of restrictions to toe a really fine tightrope balancing health and economy and get through the winter.

If by next spring / summer vaccines are not going to be in place, I think they will start looking at a different angle will unfortunately will lead to overwhelming the NHS. At that point I think they will look at restricting health care to only offering it (across all covid and non covid) only to people who will benefit the most. Very sad.

Muddling on balancing the economy with the number of people in hospital, until science (vaccine) saves us next year.

This ^.

Fucking my mental health up and causing me to be seriously considering suicide by depriving me of my one passion in life.

Still to not overwhelm healthcare capacity.

Keep everything else going to get close-ish to that limit - impact won’t be same everywhere like last time.

@kittensarecute
Fucking my mental health up and causing me to be seriously considering suicide by depriving me of my one passion in life.

I'm with you they are taking away everything people like doing again. What is life without joy, I'm getting to that point again.