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Original poster

Why should the SW be locked down with everyone else when cases are still low?

61 replies

artisanparsnips · 21/09/2020 15:12

Obviously I have a vested interest in this, being in the SW, but cases here - south of Bristol - have been negligible, and have been at that level for months.

And yet we will have to be locked down with everyone else. I realise it's probably going to happen, but am a bit unimpressed that the disparity is not even being mentioned, because it's not London.

OP posts:
Littlemissdaredevil · 21/09/2020 16:42

Due to the low level of cases in the SW R is very difficult to predict and likely to be unreliable

ONE have calculated that 0.05% of the SW population would test positive - which is the same as mid August.

4 positive results in the Devon County Council area today which has a population of approx 800,000. Cases on the Devon county council area have dropped from 71 to 48 last week.

Lucindainthesky · 21/09/2020 17:00

If the SW gets missed out of a lockdown, our numbers will just start to creep up. We don't have magic immunity down here, we're just behind timewise.

I would prefer to be included in a lockdown to drive our low numbers down even further.

Original poster
artisanparsnips · 21/09/2020 17:04

I think that people under stricter lockdown rules shouldn't be able to travel out of area. Friend's daughter has just gone back to Uni in Newcastle from London, and is not allowed to overnight anywhere else. That seems reasonable.

And I don't think we have magic immunity, just low population density, and that makes a huge difference.

OP posts:
BusterTheBulldog · 21/09/2020 17:05

Maybe all the warnings to holiday makers and tourists not to come down actually worked?

3asAbird · 21/09/2020 17:23

Also bristol here too

Theres now at least 15cases in bristol schools
.year 8 cabot brunel
Year 9 oasis john williams
Year 11 st mary redcliffe.
Few primaries different areas of the city
Clifton college.

It was impossible other week get tests South west
Many travelled to Wales i dont know if they against wales r rate or ours.
I think the true covid is more than we know.
See lots of people not social distancing.

We have 2 huge universities with people coming from around uk and internationally.
I hate to be pessamist but i can see it getting worse fast.

Also so many commute from wales to South west for work so could be cross infection there as many moved to South wales when toll bridge costs went and Newport is now in lockdown.

Original poster
artisanparsnips · 21/09/2020 17:30

@Neolara

Maybe it's low now, but levels are rising in SW just as in rest of country
I've just had a look at the various websites (Imperial College and govt) and rates are falling all across the SW: Bath, Somerset, Exeter, N Devon.
OP posts:
MsTSwift · 21/09/2020 17:32

I agree op am close to you. There is one case in our hospital. Surely needs to be localised approach

Yetiyoga · 21/09/2020 17:37

OP it isn't just south of Bristol. Bristol itself have had low cases throughout. I'm not really sure why tbh as we have 2 universities and a high population of people living close together. Cases are falling in Bristol too.

Walkaround · 21/09/2020 17:38

Will cases still keep falling/remaining steady in Bath and Exeter when the university students have settled in, @artisanpasnips? I thought they were big university places?

Yetiyoga · 21/09/2020 17:38

However, despite Bristol having low cases, I sort of agree something nationally needs to be done now. Maybe places can remain open but only go in your bubbles.

Walkaround · 21/09/2020 17:41

Ps plenty of places in the SE with lower rates than Bristol, Bath and Exeter.

Walkaround · 21/09/2020 17:42

Plymouth also higher rates than many areas in the SE.

Walkaround · 21/09/2020 17:46

Also North Somerset. All in all, the whole of the SW doesn’t look as unscathed as you are implying, to me!

gnomeisland · 21/09/2020 17:48

Cases in Cornwall are rising now.
A couple of weeks ago it was 2 or 3 cases a day. Yesterday it was 26, today 37.
It's still low in terms of numbers, but it's the rate of change that is worrying.
There are rumours on the campus grapevine that Falmouth Uni accounts for a large chunk of those numbers this weekend but no official info to substantiate that.

SansaSnark · 21/09/2020 17:52

Cases aren't low everywhere in the south west- I know a couple of schools in Plymouth which have had to send groups of children home due to a positive test, for example.

Also, if you look at deaths vs cases in Cornwall and other rural areas, it's clear loads of cases have been missed. I know a lot of people in West Cornwall who have no ability to access testing, so I don't think we have an accurate picture of what is going on in the county.

SansaSnark · 21/09/2020 17:53

@gnomeisland

Cases in Cornwall are rising now. A couple of weeks ago it was 2 or 3 cases a day. Yesterday it was 26, today 37. It's still low in terms of numbers, but it's the rate of change that is worrying. There are rumours on the campus grapevine that Falmouth Uni accounts for a large chunk of those numbers this weekend but no official info to substantiate that.
I don't think this is the case- there are at least three known clusters not linked to the uni. I'm sure the uni accounts for some of the rise, but I don't think it's all of it.
Chloemol · 21/09/2020 17:54

Just as a matter of interest, how are you going to stop those in currently high areas from travelling to the current low rate areas? People travel from one area to the next everyday, they maybe be aware at that moment in time they have the virus,

One thing is for sure, this pandemic has shown just how many selfish, me me me people there are in this country after lockdown finished.

PicsInRed · 21/09/2020 18:50

@Yetiyoga

OP it isn't just south of Bristol. Bristol itself have had low cases throughout. I'm not really sure why tbh as we have 2 universities and a high population of people living close together. Cases are falling in Bristol too.
Months ago there were threads around covid type illness in late 2019. Bristol featured heavily. Perhaps it's already been though Bristol and surrounding areas.
gnomeisland · 21/09/2020 19:50

SansaSnark
Yes, aware of the outbreaks at the meat factory in Pool and the others further up the line that were picked up last week.
As I say, unsubstantiated rumours around the campus of around a dozen cases this weekend. I'm sure all will become clearer in the next few days. Falmouth and Exeter have a Rapid Response team set up so if there is an outbreak they hope to be on top of it sharpish.

Bol87 · 21/09/2020 19:53

Ahh see, I live in Yorkshire & I was fuming our town was put in local lockdown when we had cases lower than the SW. The justification being towns near us were high. Our town councillor fought to get us out of lockdown & he succeeded. Two weeks later, our cases sky rocketed & now we are back in it. I’m not angry this time. Maybe they had a point the first time round. We needed to squash the low level of cases but we didn’t. And now it’s gone bonkers. 😫

Enjoy your low cases while it lasts..

Treesofwood · 21/09/2020 19:54

Reduction from 2300ish to 1600ish week on week in London. Why on earth would they increase restrictions in London? Western Isles, I would hope would also be exempt from whatever restrictions NS and to bring in across Scotland. But we will see.

caringcarer · 21/09/2020 19:54

My sister is in Plymouth and she says cases are rising but very few testing stations nearest was Wales according to her neighbour who wanted a test. If people are not getting tested the amount of Covid may be higher than you think.

VioletCharlotte · 21/09/2020 21:51

I agree, I'm in a large town in Hampshire and cases are decreasing. We're currently at 3 cases per 100,000 people with no Covid patients in our hospital. All the surrounding areas are similar. PeoPle are complying with rules reasonable well, it would make no sense at all to tighten the restrictions. I believe it maybe we'll have the opposite effect and resentment could lead to non compliance.

cantkeepawayforever · 21/09/2020 22:06

i live in a 'low cases' area.

DD's school is on its 4th case, 3 year groups affected...ironically much worse than another school I have connections with, right in the middle of all the highest case number areas.

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