Why has the North been hit harder?

[Desperado40]

Does anyone know why covid rates are rising higher in some areas and not others? My understanding is that big cities/higher density of population is a big factor, but this is just a guess. In that case, why was it Bolton, Manchester etc and not London?
This is a genuine question that I'd like to find some answers to.

People in the North saying "we locked down to early" to just the usually "government only cares about London" moans in its latest form.

I just wonder if on the whole we're being more careful down south

That, and of course, everyone is really unfriendly in the South, so we never see anyone anyway .

@YoBeaches
Temperature - because Edinburgh is warmer?
Kids at school - you mean like everywhere else in the country?
Work - reduced similarly to other areas www.google.com/covid19/mobility/.
Factories - not less than other areas: www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/datasets/workforcejobsbyregionandindustryjobs05.
Age still working - nope www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personalandhouseholdfinances/pensionssavingsandinvestments/adhocs/008688expectedretirementageofadultpopulationbyregiongreatbritainjuly2016tojune2017
Public transport - theory doesn't work unless you think they're catching it on the tram or bus, but that isn't what PHE think. Anyway, usage dropped in similar proportions to the rest of the country: www.gov.uk/government/statistics/transport-use-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic.
Less affluence - yes, in parts and that is a risk factor; www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/mar/29/indices-multiple-deprivation-poverty-england. Other parts of the UK also have the same deprivation but haven't had cases increase as much.

So, a question - why did you include all these theories, but didn't include "ignoring rules" as a theory?

I live in an affluent, rural area in the proper north lol and we have really good compliance here, mainly middle class and not multigenerational housing yet we are still in local lockdown.

The things I can think of are lower temperatures and the fact that Scottish schools have been back longer.

Multiple reasons but some are more people living in multi generational households, more people do jobs you can't work from home eg factories rather than office work, different culture of going out

This is hilarious.

So if I have got this straight, "the north" is being hit harder because of the temperature, because we all work in factories, because we all live with our extended families in terraced houses with only one bedroom between us and because of our different "culture" meaning we are too thick to follow rules. Did I miss anything? Sorry, I mean, did I miss owt?

I just wonder if on the whole we're being more careful down south

Yes, that's definitely it.

Why are multigenerational households always mentioned when referring to the north. I’m in the north, I accept it’s a thing, but surely this must happen in the south too.

Sorry, I appreciate that this is a complete overgeneralisation on the point of ignorance (The North/London divide, as if England was just that).

I was sure that the infection rate would grow in popular holiday destinations over the summer (Cornwall, Devon, Lake District), but that (fortunately) did not seem to have happened.
I expect it is the mix of factors, including less manufacturing in the south. I know the rule breakers/ nutters are everywhere though!

I’m in the north, I can’t think of anyone I know who lives in a multi-generational house normally. Though I know someone who moves granny in to help with childcare before the bubbles were introduced.

I don’t know about licking down to early but we definitely came out too quickly.

Round here I’d say it’s mostly people ignoring/willfully misinterpreting the rules. But there’s people like that everywhere.

I don't think there's a particular reason why the north has higher cases at the moment, at the start it was London. I'm sure people are breaking rules but that probably happens in the south too. I don't know many multi generational households either. I think some areas did come out of lockdown too early but I think it'll soon be southern counties with more restrictions too

I live in one of the areas going into lockdown tomorrow. I can only speak for my immediate area. There is definite non-compliance.
There are 9 kids outside playing knock and run as I speak. I’ve called one of the mum’s to let her know we are self isolating (Waiting in test results) and her kids are knocking on the door (perhaps not the best idea given our potential infection) and she’s done nothing about stopping them.

Because it's cold
Australia and Brazil suffered badly in June and july because it was their winter. Just my theory... I heard viruses thrive in cooler temperatures

Too many parties.

Why are the rates rising in Spain and France if it's to do with temperature? And actually it's not that cold ,we have had a lovely summer in Bolton and the weather has been glorious for the past few days.

@RegularHumanBartender

This is hilarious.

So if I have got this straight, "the north" is being hit harder because of the temperature, because we all work in factories, because we all live with our extended families in terraced houses with only one bedroom between us and because of our different "culture" meaning we are too thick to follow rules. Did I miss anything? Sorry, I mean, did I miss owt?

Totally agree

I think the answer is, the north is being hit just as hard as the south will be in 3 weeks time. Before there was a delay between the south and north with London being ahead. We came out of lockdown too early for the north so the virus didn't die out as well as in the south, now its coming back from the north and will move south.

I have lived in the south-east plus London. In both regions health and safety is taken very seriously. Here however in the midlands health and safety is less important. I know this for a fact.

The stuff about house sizes may not be as daft as it sounds. People tend to have the smallest dwelling size in the country in the expensive south east, as this below discusses:

www.centreforcities.org/press/revealed-cities-offering-the-most-and-least-living-space-per-person/

I don't mean everyone in the north has a massive house, because obviously that's not true. But for the age groups where the numbers are climbing ie 20s and 30s, you're probably more likely to have a bigger home in the north than you would in London or anywhere else expensive in the south east. Meaning potentially more contacts if you host a private gathering and more chance of one of you being asymptomatic and infectious.

@LivingDeadGirlUK - We came out of lockdown too early for the north so the virus didn't die out as well as in the south
The north went into lockdown with far less cases than London, that "so" doesn't make sense. Logically the North should have come out of lockdown with even less cases. The opposite happened. Therefore something was happening in the North during lockdown that was not happening to the same extent in London and was preventing virus suppression. Whatever that was has been exaggerated as time passed.

@MRex no because of the incubation period of the virus. If you look at the graphs the north followed the same pattern as the south but delayed with similar numbers as a percentage of population at its peak. Problem was the peak was later than in the south so when lockdown ended cases were not as low in the north as they were in the south. The BBC had graphs per region showing this, I was following it at the time as I'm in the north but my family is in the south.

I'll make a prediction.
Just like first time round, London will end up being hit harder than anywhere else. I was right about the first wave. For weeks people insisted London wouldn't be badly hit. I knew it would be. We'll see whether or not I'm wrong about the second wave.
London's official cases are apparently not very high... but no tests = no cases. As Mayor Sadiq Khan has noticed, the hospital figures suggest otherwise. They're increasing.

I'm not sure I can get on board with the theory that because London was hit hard at the start that it's faring better now.

Birmingham was hit very hard early on (at one point our NHS Trust had the highest number of admissions/deaths) yet we are being hit hard again now.

My hypothesis is the lockdown areas are Brexit voting versus London which was remain. Brexit was seen as a rejection of government and not trusting them. Anti maskers, anti vaxxers, QAnon types are more likely to be brexiteers/trumpeters. Social media and RL social group echo chambers spread the message. People following the rules are ridiculed. London is the complete opposite. Obviously doesn’t work for every area, things change, demographics/opinions.

I haven’t done any research but it would be interesting to see the correlation.

On the houses thing, I think more families are in smaller homes. You have to be way above average income to afford a nice sized family home. Additionally Londoners are likely to live away from family and old friends than those up north who stayed more local. They are more likely to visit these friends and families than newer friends in London and less having family nearby.

@ShastaBeast
London is very diverse. Millions still live near or with family. Yes many have been forced out but plenty more still live there. For now.

I guess your other theory could be right?
The government supports Brexit, so it's protecting only Brexit supporting areas? But that doesn't explain the protection measures in Manchester and Liverpool, both of which voted Remain.