Why has the North been hit harder?

[Desperado40]

Does anyone know why covid rates are rising higher in some areas and not others? My understanding is that big cities/higher density of population is a big factor, but this is just a guess. In that case, why was it Bolton, Manchester etc and not London?
This is a genuine question that I'd like to find some answers to.

@ItsAHardKn0ckLife1

Because of idiots sharing crap like this on the local fb page. I despair at how many people in the comments agree

Imo idiots are spread pretty evenly across the country, it's not a north/south divide issue

Lots of mixing going on. Lots of factories/warehouses. Lots of multigenerational housing, particularly in some towns. There is a bit of a “fuck it” attitude going on at the moment from what I can see.

Idiots are everywhere. So far people actual looking at the evidence are suggesting that more white collar work in London and SE, means still working from home. More blue collar work in Northern cities means return to workplaces. Also now thought that Greater Manchester cam out of lockdown too early, as it was based on London and not all areas. So the numbers never went below safe levels.

In addition, it is more common in North and other areas to live close to family and socialise on a more regular basis. In London, although this exists, also lareg transient population and young workers or families there for work rather than born there.

@RepeatSwan very true! Just pointing out the mindset of a lot of people in my area (north east). Sounds much like @x2boys description of Bolton.

A few days ago a couple of family members attended a birthday party in a bar in a city centre, with 50+ people. After the area was placed in a local lockdown. There seems to be an air of “don’t care”, unfortunately.

I think we need lots of posters pointing out the similarity between having your nose hanging out of your face mask and having your penis hanging out of your pants

@dollypartonscoat 😂 yes I do, it was just how I took the phrase of the question

Because that is the grim image I get whenever I see someone with their nose hanging out of their face mask

It's because we locked down far too early in the North because decisions were being made at a National level based only on what was happening in London. The number of deaths and hospitalisations in our area was tiny. We had a hospital that was literally virtually empty. Our local GP surgery was cordoned off as a "red zone" and literally not been used at all. In our area, we'll have very low levels of "herd immunity" and low numbers of people with anti-bodies simply because so few actually were infected in the first wave. It's going to hit us like a sledgehammer if it gets a hold. Rather than the full lockdown in March, our area (and no doubt lots of other similar ones) should have been allowed to continue with the precautions (SD, hand washing, avoiding socialising etc) for another couple of weeks or so just to see whether a full lockdown was actually needed or whether those precautions were enough.

Evidence from other countries shows that locking down early leads to fewer cases. The extra cases in the north was therefore not caused by locking down too early. Cases didn't drop sufficiently during lockdown, they aren't dropping consistently in all areas with extra restrictions, but both those techniques have worked in other areas. There is no evidence that the virus itself is different, nor the demographics of the population, nor local working conditions. It is also widely discussed that there is low adherence to the rules in those areas. The logical explanation is therefore that rule-breaking is the cause of higher cases. It wouldn't matter so much if it was just people like the dickhead on a pub crawl who was supposed to be in quarantine, the problem is the others infected who are doing their jobs and happen to have got near to infected dickheads.

We came out of lockdown too soon in the North as we were several weeks behind London in terms of case rate.

I can't believe someone thinks houses are bigger in the north, the houses on my street are exactly the same as the ones on my parents street in London, but mine is worth £240k and theirs £1 million for some reason!

My sibling is in a northern town about to go on it’s second period of restrictions (after lock down proper I mean, the first period was from early Aug to early Sept). She is the first to say the rule breaking in her town has been terrible with many people not seeming to care.

There was an article a couple of weeks ago in the Guardian (I think) about why London has not yet seen huge rises in cases - I know it’s going up but for example my area has 25 cases per 100,000 in the last week, my siblings area had triple that. The gist of the article was that experts weren’t quite sure but there were theories that London was hit hard early on so adapted quickly to restrictions and distancing, that the city lacks heavy manufacturing or production bases (eg factories) that some northern cities have, and that there is less multi generational living in one house. I think they also discussed poverty although that also exists in London of course.

I just don't understand the phrase locked down too early what nonsense is this?

@MerryInthechelseahotel

I just don't understand the phrase locked down too early what nonsense is this?

It's a colloquialism for "I don't understand how exponential curves work."

See also "kicking the can down the road"

Wasn't the fear that Londoners would have gone elsewhere in the UK as happened in Lombardy and Madrid?

We came out of lockdown too soon in the North as we were several weeks behind London in terms of case rate.

This.

Also people travel into London to do white-collar jobs. If they are working at home then there is more social distancing due to less mixing of people.

ChavvySexPond

superspreader awaiting test results = selfish twat

@LivingDeadGirlUK sorry that’s me showing my ignorance of the north 😂 my experience is that because of cheaper housing my friends living in the north have much larger houses than my friends in London. Happy to be corrected, it’s just my experience that more people (that I know) live in one bedroom flats etc. in London than in Northern areas because of cost/benefit analysis

@tearstainedbakes

People talking about herd immunity, we know that you can now get it more than once, so how does that fit with the notion of herd immunity?

Evidence suggests that people can gain immunity from Covid 19 for a short amount of time, probably measured in months.

@lurker101 I think there are the same number of 1 bed flats etc but the people living in them are different. So in London 1 bed flats are for proffesional couples but single professionals would be in a shared house. In Manchester a young proffesional could afford a 1 bed flat, a couple a 2 bed and house shares are more for students if you see what I mean?

If the North shut down "too early" this should actually have had a protectative effect, see other countries, and MN threads complaining we locked down too late. So that's clearly not the case. And you can't also say that the infection was still too prevalent when we opened up again, because it really wasn't. Therefore, it has to be general rule breaking.

London is slowly getting busier, but most (younger) workers only started going back a couple of weeks ago, everyone else is still working from home, and trains and tubes are still pretty empty, although DD says quite a few people are not wearing masks, and guards will not enforce.

Meanwhile 20 miles down the road in Surrey/Hants, where many London workers are now in-situ, infection rates are falling.

Temperature.
Higher working class levels, more people going out to work and kids at school. Higher levels of over 60's still working.
Less affluence - higher use of public transport and public services.
So, greyer exposure.

I keep hearing it's down to families mixing inside. Not sure what it's like in other counties in the south, but around here everyone I know is only socialising outside, neighbours, friends, work colleagues (I work in two places). The only people who've been in our house were two essential workmen and my SIL for 10 mins when she dropped a present off in pouring rain. Down here we haven't wanted to take advantage of the full restrictions. We're distancing out locally and I went to the main town in our borough the other day, and you were the odd one out if you weren't wearing a mask in the street. We have four pubs within a 40min walk, all close at 10pm - so if that restriction is brought in, it won't make a difference.

From the above, I just wonder if on the whole we're being more careful down south (but I do appreciate there are many many people up north doing the same).

From the above, I just wonder if on the whole we're being more careful down south

No, that's not the reason, people keep blaming those who get ill.

There were more cases in the south previously.

This page is useful for seeing the rates of areas at different times since the start. You can enter the council lower down to see a graph of the rates. www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/20/coronavirus-uk-map-confirmed-covid-cases-and-deaths-today