Watching how this is all going, with many 14 day isolations and patchy remote provision, I can’t see next years exams happening. I don’t think the government can either. It’s not a fair playing field. At this rate the year 11/13’s won’t even cover all the content, let alone revision techniques. And this chaotic situation is going to run until at least the spring.
I suspect that’s why primaries are prioritised over secondaries in the current guidance. Keeping primaries open does at least let parents work and help the economy. Keeping secondaries open doesn't (at least short term). Bung them all their predicted grades and say “we tried”. That’s why schools are doing assessments in the next few weeks, to get some data ready.
If nothing has changed with the covid situation come spring, we won’t even be able to get the kids together in a hall to physically sit the exams. They won’t fit while keeping 2m distance. If they hire external halls they’ll need hundreds of trained invigilators (and these are often older people so understandably may not want the job!). What if they have to start a 14 day isolation the day before their first exam? Do they get awarded nothing?
I think Ofqual can’t say this yet, as the affected year groups would just stop working right now. But I am really struggling to see how these exams could fairly happen in 8 months time.