Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

[BigChocFrenzy]

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

Welcome to thread 19 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

This maybe completely wrong but I've drawn a (very rough free hand!) line from where each country was and where they are now.

Does that give a rough idea of growth for each country as an average and where they are likely to go?

Or am I making links or assumptions where the data doesn't indicate this at all?

Do I need to look at just last part and the now?

I'm really trying to get my head around current situation. There's so much conflicting opinion out there on what our current data shows, risk of current infection with regards age group and the fact we are still opening up more and plans to open even more are continuing.

Looking at the form of these curves, I don't think we can draw straight lines, except at most to estimate current gradient and hence what may happen over the next few days

At any stage, any of those curves may level off, or increase gradient - and also either of those changes may only stay for a couple of weeks

Too many variables for straight lines

The processing times for tests in England have improved again.

Out of 3,638 cases reported today:

• 57 relate to yesterday, Sep 18
• 1,808 - Sep 17
• 1,036 - Sep 16
• 496 - Sep 15
• 186 - Sep 14
• 32 - Sep 13

Looks like the trend up to Sep 13 should now be pretty reliable (bearing in mind issues with test shortages). This seems to suggest cases in some regions (e.g. South West and probably South East) may have started to go down.

North West, however, does not look good.

France - UPDATE !!

~13,500 new cases
26 deaths
(Deaths possibly lower than reality because of weekend reporting)

Adam Kucharski spotted this update from

Reporting lag notified by 1 hospital which brought about yesterday's spike of 123 deaths:
(or 154 deaths according to official figures !)

Nearly 240 cases were historic since July

==> 613 instead of 850 new admissions
within yesterday's 24 hour reporting period

Nearly 76 of the deaths were historic
==> only 47 deaths actually occurred within the 24 hours

@itsgettingweird

That graph is great BCF however - and please correct me where needed! - it seems to show we haven't shown signs of exponential growth but rather rumbling for 4-5 weeks. It doesn't seem to show we are or even may get that sudden exponential growth again?

I obviously know it's possible but I'm wondering if there's anyway of predicting or plotting based on previous data?

Surely the figures from eg Greater Manchester are showing strong increases indicative of exponential growth?

We've previously discusssed the issue of Spain revising / checking its Covid figures,
to be completed by 25 Sept, next Friday.

France's update highlights that a chunk of cases & deaths can just be lost in the system, if a particular hospital has a brainfart
(It's not just the UK that gets its numbers in a twist !)

Spain's deaths the last few days look much higher and irregular, presumably the earlier deaths being added in already:
156, 239, 162, 90

All this "noisy data" (mathspeak) makes it difficult to look at France & Spain to predict what will come to the UK
Germany's figures normally very reliable; however not a good guide to the UK.

Duckchick I'm sure there will be others - my point was that our dear government prefers to funnel money to its chums rather than do things efficiently.

Batch processing makes sense and there is no reason why it needs to be restricted to family groups when infection rates are low, not useful when infection rates are high.

I dont trust any figures except admission data when testing is so poor. However on any measure you look at the south west is doing well.

"Surely the figures from eg Greater Manchester are showing strong increases indicative of exponential growth?"

A few regions of the UK, such as Manchester are rising sharply, but other areas show no increase

So overall, the total UK cases are increasing steadily,
but don't yet look on the sharp gradient of an exponential curve - which would probably be the minimum govt criteria for a 2 week firebreak lockdown

There is plenty of time before late October and the half term for either rapid exponential growth to take off for the UK,
or for the cases to stabilise for a while.

Likely over the next month are some more local lockdowns / continual local lockdowns

I mean "continuing existing local lockdowns"

Reportedly one factor in France's increased cases is that tests have increased x 6 after the government made them free

However, the increased % positivity accompanying this indicates that the very sharp rise is genuine.

Sorry if this has already been asked, but I wondered about the meaning of the 'second wave coming in', as if it is coming from elsewhere. Surely this is just the same wave of the virus that we had managed to suppress by not having contact with other people? It never went away. Or do waves not mean what I think they mean?

[quote Sunshinegirl82]@Jenasaurus

I'm in Hampshire between London and Southampton. I think CM runs 6 days behind in order to have complete data so I'm sure those cases will appear.

We have had the odd day of 3 or 4 infections which skews things for a bit but then have dropped back to 1/2. Everyone I know (including my family) was poorly in February/March. Whether they had Covid or something else we will probably never know but given that we 100% know it was spreading in the community locally back then it seems possible.[/quote]

We must be close-ish. I'm in a village near Alton (and also an 82 birthday).

Just seen Sky news reporting the change in law around self-isolation with a quote that SAGE found that only 20%(!!!) of people with symptoms have been properly self isolating.

Have to say that's even lower than I would have guessed...no wonder we're up shit creek again or at least heading in that direction.

Yes I saw this, I beleive it may be the same news

People in England who test positive for Covid-19 will have a “legal obligation” to self-isolate from 28 September, the government announced on Saturday.

London mayor Sadiq Khan has warned Boris Johnson that the English capital needs fresh Covid restrictions by Monday if it is to avoid a big spike in the spread of the virus, the Huffington Post reports.

Khan is also preparing to urge the public to work from home if they can do so, in a switch back to the message used by the government at the height of the lockdown.

Sunday Times are reporting there is to be another Johnson press conference on Tuesday (possibly with Witty and Valance) to announce a further tightening of restrictions on ordinary life.

This weekend they are deciding how far they should go.

Article suggests options are:
Closing all pubs and restuarants
10pm curfew
a nationwide ban on friends and separate households socialising

Understood he will reject an immediate two week circuit breaker but it is still under consideration for half term fortnight.

Fears are london will be the next region to be put under local lockdown with claims its just days behind the NE and NW.

So yeah. Cheerful week ahead.

Fairly easily solved by just not getting a test I would have thought? It worries me a bit it will just drive it underground.

@wheresmymojo we are practically neighbours!

@Sunshinegirl82

Fairly easily solved by just not getting a test I would have thought? It worries me a bit it will just drive it underground.

@wheresmymojo we are practically neighbours!

Thats true and its so hard to get a test anyway.

Crikey yes what's to stop that potentially very dangerous unintended consequence?

As if there isn't enough disincentives already, with no effective financial support and it being so hard to secure a booking slot anyway.

Wouldn’t contact tracing land you in it? So then you’d have to isolate

Although if people stop giving names for same reason we will be more in the dark with it all

If you are in contact with a positive case and the person who tests positive is honest about their contacts maybe. I can see this being quite an incentive for people not to be honest though! Why would you want to set your friends etc up for a potential fine?

If you have symptoms I can see people thinking well I just won't get a test. No positive test, no fine. Seems like a fairly likely scenario to me.

Personally I think we need more carrot, less stick. You need to make isolation as easy as possible for people.

I can see that the French approach of reducing the period to 7 days might have some merit. Presumably it's better if 75% of people isolate for 7 days than 25% for 14?

Some graphs for Spain here:
elpais.com/sociedad/2020-07-29/el-mapa-del-coronavirus-por-provincias-asi-avanzan-los-casos-en-espana.html

Main incentive would be full pay for isolation.

Isolation is very much in the public interest; hence should be fully paid from the public purse

Payment wouldn't affect those who won't isolate because it spoils their social life,
but it would help those who want to do the right thing and isolate, but can't afford to do so