The way out?!

[Whirlwind14]

Everything just seems so dark at the moment and I’m really struggling to see any light at the end of the Covid tunnel.

Holidays are advertising for summer 2021, big names in the music industry are cancelling all dates for the next year.... so is summer 2021 really looking promising for getting our lives back on track?!

How are we actually going to get out of this mess?

A vaccine? A better understanding of how to treat symptoms? A wonder drug? The virus mutating to a less harmful strain? The Track and Trace app miraculously appearing and solving things? Herd immunity? Some other miracle?

None of those things you listed. The way 'out' of it is to admit what has been true all along - that a virus that is present practically all over the world, that has spread to millions of people, is impossible to control indefinitely and that while it makes sense to take precautions to keep numbers low, it doesn't make sense to constantly flip flop between lockdown and 'opening up' and it doesn't make sense to introduce pointless rules like the 'rule of six.'

Covid will still be here next year and the year after and forever more, it's just that people will have realised that entirely focusing on one thing to the detriment of everything else is a crazy way to behave. It'd be great if they'd do that now, but they won't so we'll have to wait longer, but it will happen eventually.

I agree with TheDailyCarbuncle. The way out is to accept the virus is now part of life (in the same way many infectious diseases were in the past), take sensible proportionate precautions if we can, but otherwise just get on with things.

I agree with TheDailiyCarbuncle too.... I think a massively better testing system might help improve things from where they currently are, and its so frustrating that this wasnt arranged over the summer when cases were low.

I don't agree about us having a 'second wave' - I think we're just alternating between supressing it by locking down, then opening back up and it taking hold again. This will continue for months and months and by then everyone will say we're on our 10th wave and people will be dying from untreated non-covid illnesses.

So what does this ‘getting on with it’ look like? Cases keep going up like they are now until it has spread through nearly all the population. It is not like flu with many people having some immunity to it! Hundreds of thousands would be pretty poorly at best in a short space of time and many dead. People literally would be dying at home and in the street. Take a look at Brazil. Would you really take your child to school every day in that situation? Do you think teachers are going to be well enough either physically or mentally to teach your children online let alone actually in school? That shops would be open? That you would be able to get petrol? Society would collapse and, however bad you think things are now, they would get worse.

There is a high chance a vaccine will be available very soon. The greatest science minds believe this to me true. You must be insane if you think the ‘run through society’ option is feasible at all, let alone with a possible vaccine being so close.

It’s a good job people didn’t say the same about measles and polio and didn’t bother getting a vaccine. Maybe people would think differently if it was children dying on ventilators rather than older and fat people But do you honestly think that children aren’t going to suffer more in a world where they lose relatives and, heaven forbid, parents?

I don't think any of us have said that we won't have a vaccine @Worriedmum999 just that we can't put life completely on hold until one 'might' become available.

What thedailycarbuncle was saying (i believe) is that Covid will settle into our population like the flu - it'll come and go every winter.

We'll need a vaccine to assist the vulnerable. But not everyone will need a vaccine. I never have a seasonal flu vaccine (I'm a fit 40 year old). Likewise, I don't expect i'll be eligble for a covid vaccine.

I don’t understand why some people think a vaccine won’t solve this. It’s already thought that the Oxford vaccine is effective. If it is proved both effective and safe, it is available to the whole population and take up is high, why would it not solve this? Genuinely confused.

@MajorClanger123

I don't think any of us have said that we won't have a vaccine *@Worriedmum999* just that we can't put life completely on hold until one 'might' become available.

What thedailycarbuncle was saying (i believe) is that Covid will settle into our population like the flu - it'll come and go every winter.

We'll need a vaccine to assist the vulnerable. But not everyone will need a vaccine. I never have a seasonal flu vaccine (I'm a fit 40 year old). Likewise, I don't expect i'll be eligble for a covid vaccine.

The plan is to vaccinate as many people as possible as is the case for measles. It is not the flu and the vaccination programme will not look like a flu vaccination programme where only certain groups are vaccinated.

It’s a good job people didn’t say the same about measles and polio and didn’t bother getting a vaccine.

And where has anyone suggested that we shouldn’t bother getting a vaccine? We’ve never devoted such resource and energy into getting a vaccine in the history of humankind.

Just as we’ve never locked the world down for a disease before. It’s totally unprecedented. And it really can’t go on indefinitely. There will come a point where we have to get on with things the best we can.

@Lemons1571 there are a lot of reasons. One is because it isn't clear that this vaccine, or any vaccine, will work equally well on the most vulnerable with aged immune systems and whether it stops the spread of covid or merely reduce the severity of illness. The vaccine may also be more like a flu vaccine in that it may need to be updated annually. Also, there is the issue of distributing a vaccine globally. Others will be able to say more.

twitter.com/bbc5live/status/1304306647536488448

@weepingwillow22 ahh ok - fair enough, i will await my call-up! I'll happily have a vaccine if eligble.
I guess I suspect somebody in my age category might be pretty low down the list of who gets it first.

I don’t understand why some people think a vaccine won’t solve this.

I think it will eventually, but getting to the stage where we can lift restrictions will take a long time.

No vaccine has the go ahead yet. We have no certainty on that timescale.

The first to be rolled out may not be very efficacious, it may work on some groups better than others.

Key groups will be vaccinated first. Universal rollout will take months.

They antivaxxers will be pains in the arse about it, holding up herd immunity.

There will be general ineptitude along the way slowing things down.

We have a vaccine coming and we already have several treatments so it is already getting better.

We haven't flipped back to lockdown. We have imposed extra precautions in certain high risk areas. Even that rule of 6 has so many exceptions it's probably mostly going to hurt people who wanted a big party and I think we can live without that for a bit.

We would probably have done a better job of of keeping the numbers down if not for the irresponsible people. Those suffering from the Dunning-Kruger effect who think they (or their mate down the pub) knows more than a planet full of epidemiologists.

Now a cure for that would be useful.

@Worriedmum999

It’s a good job people didn’t say the same about measles and polio and didn’t bother getting a vaccine. Maybe people would think differently if it was children dying on ventilators rather than older and fat people But do you honestly think that children aren’t going to suffer more in a world where they lose relatives and, heaven forbid, parents?

This makes no sense. Measles was going around long before a vaccine was available - I caught it before I could get vaccinated, it nearly killed me. There was no lockdown for that particular outbreak, people just carried on as normal, some children died. Of course, if there's an effective vaccine available it makes sense to get it. But if there's none available and then you just to get on with things and hope for the best. No one is saying 'don't bother with a vaccine' they're saying that a vaccine is unlikely to ever be widely available.

@TheDailyCarbuncle who is saying that a vaccine is unlikely to ever be widely available?

Why wouldn’t it be widely available? Obviously administering it widely will be time consuming but aren’t 60 million doses of the Oxford one already In production for UK use iF it’s given the go ahead?

The only thing we know about the oxford vaccine are in a small sample

• it is safe In that there are no serious side effects

-It produces anti bodies

We still do not know

• if the anti body response produced is sufficient to grant immunity to the virus
• if the anti body response is sufficient
• if the anti body response that has been shown would happen in those vulnerable to covid, eg old, underlying health conditions

The answers to those three questions will be a significant part of the phase three trial, only then will we know if it’s “the solution” “a bit rubbish” or most likely something in between eg if we know it promotes a good immune response in 50 percent of people who get it it will still be helpful but not an “end” to slll other measures if it’s more like a good and lasting immune response in 90 percent of the population then it will look more like a golden bullet. But we don’t know and people have taken too much that the stage three trails are a rubber stamp, they are not they are a trail the results of which we do not know and cannot be certain of.

@LastTrainEast

The problem is, the world leading scientists / epidemiologists do all seem to cover a variety of views about Covid. I've followed many closely during the pandemic (due to my geek love of virology whilst at Uni ) and there are some very different views out there, even from the professionals.

Some Epidemiologists who I follow and have great respect for, seem to say the complete opposite of others(with regards both the virus and ways to move forward). Who is right? Heavens knows!!

@Worriedmum999

So what does this ‘getting on with it’ look like? Cases keep going up like they are now until it has spread through nearly all the population. It is not like flu with many people having some immunity to it! Hundreds of thousands would be pretty poorly at best in a short space of time and many dead. People literally would be dying at home and in the street. Take a look at Brazil. Would you really take your child to school every day in that situation? Do you think teachers are going to be well enough either physically or mentally to teach your children online let alone actually in school? That shops would be open? That you would be able to get petrol? Society would collapse and, however bad you think things are now, they would get worse.

There is a high chance a vaccine will be available very soon. The greatest science minds believe this to me true. You must be insane if you think the ‘run through society’ option is feasible at all, let alone with a possible vaccine being so close.

I agree. I don't understand how people who advocate just going back to normal and getting on with it envisage society functioning with Covid raging all around. They also almost without fail tend to be sceptical that there will ever be a vaccine or effective treatments. I know that is possible, but if it turns out to be the case I think the world is in a great deal of trouble long term. I don't really see how we can just 'learn to live' with a virus capable of causing so much damage and able to grow so exponentially. It would surely just be devastating all round. I am however optimistic that there will be vaccines and effective treatments going by what I have read.

Agree @PinkMacaron

My philosophy has been to get on with life. The fact I got a mild dose in March may affect my thinking I suppose. We are being careful about parents though

Covid will still be here next year and the year after and forever more, it's just that people will have realised that entirely focusing on one thing to the detriment of everything else is a crazy way to behave

Just that. It's a risk, one of many risks, which we need to learn to live with. Without fucking masks.

I doubt summer 2021 will be business/ life as usual but disagree with a lot of the posts above that we should just live with it... yes it will be around forever most likely, but with the right combination of the things you mentioned like vaccines, treatments and herd immunity then we can be hopeful that it will get to a point similar to the flu where vulnerable and elderly can get annual new strain vaccines and those healthier that may catch have better treatments if have bad symptoms etc and life will play as before and similar to the flu.... there will be a light at the end of the tunnel we have to believe that

@SockYarn

Covid will still be here next year and the year after and forever more, it's just that people will have realised that entirely focusing on one thing to the detriment of everything else is a crazy way to behave

Just that. It's a risk, one of many risks, which we need to learn to live with. Without fucking masks.

It really isn't like other risks in its potential capacity to overwhelm society.

The way out is just letting it spread and survival of the fittest.

Is that morally/ethically correct? Thats open for debate.

I cannot see a vaccine ever happening so its either the above or live in constant constricting and relaxing of local or national lockdowns ad infinitum.