The way out?!

[Whirlwind14]

Everything just seems so dark at the moment and I’m really struggling to see any light at the end of the Covid tunnel.

Holidays are advertising for summer 2021, big names in the music industry are cancelling all dates for the next year.... so is summer 2021 really looking promising for getting our lives back on track?!

How are we actually going to get out of this mess?

A vaccine? A better understanding of how to treat symptoms? A wonder drug? The virus mutating to a less harmful strain? The Track and Trace app miraculously appearing and solving things? Herd immunity? Some other miracle?

@Dawnlassie

The way out is just letting it spread and survival of the fittest.

Is that morally/ethically correct? Thats open for debate.

I cannot see a vaccine ever happening so its either the above or live in constant constricting and relaxing of local or national lockdowns ad infinitum.

Why can you not see a vaccine ever happening?

Why can you not see a vaccine ever happening?

Still no vaccine for other such respiratory viruses MERS (2012) or SARS (2004). We should also consider that the fastest vaccine ever developed was for mumps and took 4 years.

I do not believe a vaccine that is suffiently safe and effective will be developed soon enough or possibly even at all.

Society and the economy can only go on like this for a limited time. Tough decisions lie ahead.

I advocate protect those who are at risk ie diabetes/heart issues and then get on with life as normal.

@Dawnlassie

Why can you not see a vaccine ever happening?

Still no vaccine for other such respiratory viruses MERS (2012) or SARS (2004). We should also consider that the fastest vaccine ever developed was for mumps and took 4 years.

I do not believe a vaccine that is suffiently safe and effective will be developed soon enough or possibly even at all.

Society and the economy can only go on like this for a limited time. Tough decisions lie ahead.

I advocate protect those who are at risk ie diabetes/heart issues and then get on with life as normal.

Why do you think so many scientific experts are bothering then if it's such a no goer?

[quote MajorClanger123]@LastTrainEast

The problem is, the world leading scientists / epidemiologists do all seem to cover a variety of views about Covid. I've followed many closely during the pandemic (due to my geek love of virology whilst at Uni ) and there are some very different views out there, even from the professionals.

Some Epidemiologists who I follow and have great respect for, seem to say the complete opposite of others(with regards both the virus and ways to move forward). Who is right? Heavens knows!![/quote]
What do they say ?

@BlueBlancmange exactly and they stopped the vaccine for sars as it burnt out

@Dawnlassie

Why can you not see a vaccine ever happening?

Still no vaccine for other such respiratory viruses MERS (2012) or SARS (2004). We should also consider that the fastest vaccine ever developed was for mumps and took 4 years.

I do not believe a vaccine that is suffiently safe and effective will be developed soon enough or possibly even at all.

Society and the economy can only go on like this for a limited time. Tough decisions lie ahead.

I advocate protect those who are at risk ie diabetes/heart issues and then get on with life as normal.

How do you intend to protect the millions at risk, many of whom are critical/key workers, carers, parents, etc etc? You can't suddenly remove all the vulnerable NHS workers from the GP surgeries and hospitals. You can't remove all vulnerable teachers from schools. Your cunning plan makes no sense.

Why do you think so many scientific experts are bothering then if it's such a no goer?

Probably something in between desperation and blind hope.

How do you intend to protect the millions at risk, many of whom are critical/key workers, carers, parents, etc etc? You can't suddenly remove all the vulnerable NHS workers from the GP surgeries and hospitals. You can't remove all vulnerable teachers from schools. Your cunning plan makes no sense.

I dont. I am not the PM.

@Dawnlassie
If you go to the Oxford University covid testing page (not reports from, the actual articles there themselves, then you'll feel a lot more hopeful.

SARS and MERS are mentioned there. They didn't go on with funding them because by then the viruses had died right down. With this one (and this is only one among so many being developed across the world), it is based on a vaccine that's been in use perfectly safely for years. They've tweaked it a bit for this, and they've also not had to wait for and apply for funding at each stage - instead they've had huge investment. All of that speeds up the process, and ensures it's safe. It's not a rush job. And it looks like it'll be at the very least safe - it's just a question of how effective they can make it (and are now looking at inhaleable vaccine, to get straight to the lungs). There's so much going on that's cutting edge, but they're not cutting corners.

SARS and MERS are mentioned there. They didn't go on with funding them because by then the viruses had died right down.

Okay lets use the HIV virus for an example.

Last year alone somewhere between 500,000 and 1,00,000 people worldwide died of aids related illnesses. Yet HIV vaccine research has been going on since 1984 with not a great deal to show for it.

www.niaid.nih.gov/diseases-conditions/hiv-vaccine-research-history

Even recently one of the most promising candidates the HVTN 702 which cost nearly $100 million was stopped, because it didnt work.

I expect that there will eventually be a vaccine but that it will be in years rather than months.

Having read the trials of the Oxford vaccine, I am uneasy. The Phase I/II trial was on a relatively small sample of healthy volunteers who would in all likelihood have had mild or asymptomatic reactions to the actual virus.

Testing the impact in vulnerable groups - the over 55s and in particular the over 70s is very different. It may be ineffective or the immune system may overreact and starts attacking the body.

The next phase was paused because of a patient developing inflammation of the spinal cord. This can be a reaction to a virus. It has been restarted in the UK after one week, though the US is still investigating. A one week pause seems so short given the complication. I have always had vaccines, but I worry that the pressure for success is too high.

www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31604-4/fulltext

@Dawnlassie

Why do you think so many scientific experts are bothering then if it's such a no goer?

Probably something in between desperation and blind hope.

How do you intend to protect the millions at risk, many of whom are critical/key workers, carers, parents, etc etc? You can't suddenly remove all the vulnerable NHS workers from the GP surgeries and hospitals. You can't remove all vulnerable teachers from schools. Your cunning plan makes no sense.

I dont. I am not the PM.

So what credentials do you have that make you more knowledgable than the expert scientists working on the vaccines, and qualified to judge that they can't really believe that their efforts will pay off?

@Dawnlassie

SARS and MERS are mentioned there. They didn't go on with funding them because by then the viruses had died right down.

Okay lets use the HIV virus for an example.

Last year alone somewhere between 500,000 and 1,00,000 people worldwide died of aids related illnesses. Yet HIV vaccine research has been going on since 1984 with not a great deal to show for it.

www.niaid.nih.gov/diseases-conditions/hiv-vaccine-research-history

Even recently one of the most promising candidates the HVTN 702 which cost nearly $100 million was stopped, because it didnt work.

What has HIV got to do with it? You could equally point to all the vaccines that have worked.

So what credentials do you have that make you more knowledgable than the expert scientists working on the vaccines, and qualified to judge that they can't really believe that their efforts will pay off?

I didnt realise you had to be medically qualified to post on this forum.

What has HIV got to do with it? You could equally point to all the vaccines that have worked

The point I am making with that virus is that just because you throw a shed load of money and resources at research, does not mean you are guaranteed success.

Furthermore as Eyewhisker points out. They are trialling this on healtht volunteers all of whom have been medically screened before getting accepted. Nobody knows how this will pan out if a vaccine is approved and its given to the clinically vulnerable.

Okay lets use the HIV virus for an example.

If you mean let's use a completely irrelevant example then... yeah.

HIV is a retrovirus. Completely different and much more difficult to vaccinate against than a coronavirus. Very poor example indeed.

Do you think Sarah Gilbert and others actually working in vaccine producting are fibbing to us when they say that they are cautiously optimistic that one or several vaccines will be available quite soon? What god reason is there that we should belive 'Dawnlassie' and not the world-class experts?

@Dawnlassie

So what credentials do you have that make you more knowledgable than the expert scientists working on the vaccines, and qualified to judge that they can't really believe that their efforts will pay off?

I didnt realise you had to be medically qualified to post on this forum.

You don't, but it probably does have some bearing on how much weight your assessment of the situation should be seen to carry compared to that of the scientists working on the vaccine.

@IcedPurple

Okay lets use the HIV virus for an example.

If you mean let's use a completely irrelevant example then... yeah.

HIV is a retrovirus. Completely different and much more difficult to vaccinate against than a coronavirus. Very poor example indeed.

Do you think Sarah Gilbert and others actually working in vaccine producting are fibbing to us when they say that they are cautiously optimistic that one or several vaccines will be available quite soon? What god reason is there that we should belive 'Dawnlassie' and not the world-class experts?

Exactly

@TheDailyCarbuncle

None of those things you listed. The way 'out' of it is to admit what has been true all along - that a virus that is present practically all over the world, that has spread to millions of people, is impossible to control indefinitely and that while it makes sense to take precautions to keep numbers low, it doesn't make sense to constantly flip flop between lockdown and 'opening up' and it doesn't make sense to introduce pointless rules like the 'rule of six.'

Covid will still be here next year and the year after and forever more, it's just that people will have realised that entirely focusing on one thing to the detriment of everything else is a crazy way to behave. It'd be great if they'd do that now, but they won't so we'll have to wait longer, but it will happen eventually.

I can only agree with this.

@Dawnlassie

What has HIV got to do with it? You could equally point to all the vaccines that have worked

The point I am making with that virus is that just because you throw a shed load of money and resources at research, does not mean you are guaranteed success.

Furthermore as Eyewhisker points out. They are trialling this on healtht volunteers all of whom have been medically screened before getting accepted. Nobody knows how this will pan out if a vaccine is approved and its given to the clinically vulnerable.

But you didn't say that success is not guaranteed. You said you can't see a vaccine ever happening. Then you gave an example of a disease for which a vaccine has unfortunately not yet been found to try to back up this assertion that in your view it won't be possible to develop a vaccine for Covid. You could just as easily have said there is a vaccine for say measles, so there is likely to be one for Covid. When in fact neither really predicts the likely outcome in this case.

Though I do think that a vaccine will happen and it should be available to all.

What I am unclear about is the timeframe that will be needed for that. Ideally a vaccine could become available early next year. Possibly it will take longer though.

Once a vaccine is available then rolling it out nationwide will take time. Rome was not built in a day.

We just can't keep going the way we are.

@Topseyt

Though I do think that a vaccine will happen and it should be available to all.

What I am unclear about is the timeframe that will be needed for that. Ideally a vaccine could become available early next year. Possibly it will take longer though.

Once a vaccine is available then rolling it out nationwide will take time. Rome was not built in a day.

We just can't keep going the way we are.

This. We've got lives to lead, covid or no covid.

@IcedPurple

Okay lets use the HIV virus for an example.

If you mean let's use a completely irrelevant example then... yeah.

HIV is a retrovirus. Completely different and much more difficult to vaccinate against than a coronavirus. Very poor example indeed.

Do you think Sarah Gilbert and others actually working in vaccine producting are fibbing to us when they say that they are cautiously optimistic that one or several vaccines will be available quite soon? What god reason is there that we should belive 'Dawnlassie' and not the world-class experts?

This ..well said