Is this the second wave then?

[Anothernamebitesthedust]

Sorry if this has been done, in which case do please point me towards it. But are we (and France, Spain, etc) now in the second wave?

All over the news this morning was how doctors pretty much unanimously expect a second wave to hit us ‘this winter’. Which made me wonder what this is, if not a second wave.

I mean weren’t predictions that a second wave could be worse? And stats (cases, not deaths) are much higher in both France and Spain than they were during spring. Presumably we’ll follow.

So, does anyone who knows about this know if this is it? And if it is, is it good or bad that it’s come sooner than anticipated?

We haven’t got out of the first wave yet, just the country going out more socialising and spreading the virus on.

I think this could be the beginning of a second wave, yes. Obviously we can't be sure what's going to happen but all the signs point towards it.

As for good or bad, I'm not sure any of it's good but I was hoping that we'd at least get to October before it started.

What is your definition of a second wave?

Meant to say, I doubt that it will be worse than last time, we know more and have had time to prepare, so death rates should be lower. Fingers crossed.

@lifesalongsong

What is your definition of a second wave?

That’s my point. Surely there is some sort of public health recognised definition?

@Mindymomo

We haven’t got out of the first wave yet, just the country going out more socialising and spreading the virus on.

Is that officially the case, or speculation?

(That probably sounds snippier than I mean it - it’s genuinely a question.)

I was about to post the same thing today. Looking at the graph the cases did slow right down and then starting to climb steeply just lately. I can’t see how they can say it’s residual cases from first wave and certainly looks like the early stages of the second wave to me.

1. Yes. If you define wave as a wave shape of cases. We’ve had one peak, it reduced, now we’re starting the next. We don’t know how big it will be but it is community transmission rather than isolated outbreaks so that’s not good.

1. Bad. The second wave was predicted for winter because a) the rules would have to be relaxed by then and b) flu and other viruses spread faster in winter. We are starting the second wave before winter.

I’m an optimist but also a realist. I think it will be a lot less severe in terms of deaths because we know so much more about how to treat it, and R=1.1 now compared to about 3 for the first wave. But it doesn’t bode well for opening up the economy.

Didn't Boris say at one point that they would consider closing pubs in order to keep schools open?

Looking at that plan now, I can't see them shutting down part of the economy again soon.

I'm not sure. Death rates have been really low for weeks now. Cases are rising but with not a major rise in deaths. I guess time will tell. I hope it isn't too bad.

If you look at the graph, it only really starts increasing steeply at the end of August. People keep saying that it hasn't translated into increased deaths, but the truth is, we wouldn't have expected it to at this point. It is already translating into increased hospitalisations and I cannot see how the deaths will not follow. I hope that we do not wait until we can see the problem on our wards before we act to stop it. Early action is more effective than late action, and it is clear that some kind of action is now necessary.

Second peak, yes. Wave is quite an arbitrary term.

OP states doctors predict a second wave/peak this winter. Well no shit, doc. Of course we are, it goes without saying. It's a case of mitigating it as best we can. 'Rule of 6' is the road the government have gone down, but the 'get back to the office' message is only going to increase the spread for no real gain IF people can work productively from home for now. Lack of social distancing in schools will lead to a lot of cases as well. More people indoors when the weather turns will be another big factor, as well as viruses spread more in the colder weather.

It's about getting the NHS in the best shape possible to cope with the winter peak which we always knew was coming. Mass flu vaccinations are another key thing to get going.

@Nellodee
What sort of action do you think would/should be taken?

@WhoWants2Know

Didn't Boris say at one point that they would consider closing pubs in order to keep schools open?

Looking at that plan now, I can't see them shutting down part of the economy again soon.

The spread isn't from pubs.

Its community spread. Mixing household, house parties etc etc. That's why it's now 6 ppl at home.

I think we have just moved into the normal winter summer cycle. The disease will continue in this pattern, becoming less of a threat over time as we get immunity, vaccines and treatment.

Although cases are rising you have to consider how much more testing is going on. Although hard to get a test it is nothing like March when you either needed a known contact to be positive/ have travelled to certain countries or be admitted to hospital. It may well be a second wave but you can't effectively compare cases in March and September.

There's an awful lot of testing not going on too so presumably real figures are even higher.

The zoe app estimates over 50k symptomatic cases across the UK with a daily increase likely of 4.6k. I actually find this reassuring, in view of the test and trace failures, especially the map.

How do you know it’s not pubs, @Torvean32?

Agree with Torvean closing pubs is not the solution. It is community spread and people need to not override the new socialisation limit.

We don’t know yet. But it looks worryingly like it might be on the way. It will be clear in about a month.

I have relatives working in nhs hospitals. They were told last week that things are going to get serious imminently, and this is the second 'wave', although my sister (A&E) calls them 'ripples' rather than waves as her attitude is there wont be gaps. There will simply be a continuous up and down of cases close together.

I think we need to stop thinking of them as 'waves' and more think of them as 'life'. This is the way its going to be from now on. Cases will go up and down. It's the death numbers we need to worry about.

As pp said, isn't it just a continuation of the initial 'wave' only the return to school, work, EOTHO, general relaxation meaning that of course cases are increasing.
This was predicted wasn't it?

It‘s the first wave reaching susceptible populations in parts of the country that were not so hard hit in spring. The rise in cases is not spread evenly across the country and if you look at the graphs for the places being hit now each one has a rise in cases and then falls again. It seems exactly what you would expect.

I agree with Newjez.... how anyone thought a virus was just going to go away by following " rules" is beyond me. Viruses are one of the most successful life forms ever which have been around for millions of years longer than we have.